THE FRAUGHT POLITICS OF KADUNA

BABAYARO MUHAMMAD DOGO reckons that there is a significant erosion of El-Rufai’s influence

 Once a towering figure in Kaduna State’s political landscape, Mallam Nasir el- Rufai is losing relevance. In just two years, the former governor, known more for his assertive and polarizing policies, has tumbled from the enviable height of calling the shots and a kingmaker in Kaduna politics. Presently, he finds himself at odds with both the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC), two opposition parties which he has recently courted after his dramatic exit from the All Progressives Congress (APC).   

A recent press release by the Kaduna ADC, signed by Ahmed Tijjani Mustapha, delivers a stern rebuke to El-Rufai, accusing him of flouting due process, engaging in disruptive tendencies, and attempting to hijack the party for personal gain. This development, coupled with the SDP’s unprecedented 30-year ban on him signals a significant erosion of El-Rufai’s influence in his home state and raises critical questions about the ADC’s trajectory as it seeks to establish itself as a credible alternative to the ruling APC ahead of the 2027 elections.

 El-Rufai’s political journey until recently, has been nothing short of remarkable. As a former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory and two-term governor of Kaduna State, he earned a reputation as a technocrat with a penchant for bold reforms. His tenure in Kaduna was marked by ambitious infrastructure projects, urban renewal initiatives, and a hardline stance on security, but incidentally fraught with controversies. Policies such as the mass sacking of teachers and the demolition of properties alienated significant segments of the population, while his perceived intolerance of opposition fueled accusations of authoritarianism. These actions sowed seeds of resentment that now appear to be bearing fruit.

El-Rufai’s departure from the APC in March 2025, citing a misalignment of values, was a calculated move to reposition himself within Nigeria’s evolving political landscape. His flirtation with the SDP and subsequent overtures to the ADC are no more than attempts to leverage his national profile and grassroots influence in Kaduna to lead an opposition coalition against President Bola Tinubu’s administration in 2027. However, his approach—marked by a disregard for party protocols and an apparent assumption that his stature would grant him automatic control—has backfired spectacularly.

 First, the SDP’s decision to expel El-Rufai and impose a ban on him from associating with the party was a blow to his ego, and political ambitions. The party’s National Working Committee (NWC), in a statement issued on July 28, 2025, by National Publicity Secretary Araba Rufus Aiyenigba, accused El-Rufai of attempting to destabilize the party through “unconstitutional and deceptive political maneuvers.” The SDP revealed that El-Rufai never registered at his ward level in Unguwar Sarki, Kaduna North Local Government Area, as required by the party’s constitution, yet claimed on social media to be member “001” of the ward’s register. This act, coupled with his alleged alignment with the ADC while simultaneously claiming SDP membership, was deemed a violation of party principles.

The Kaduna State chapter of the SDP further distanced itself from El-Rufai, with State Chairman Adamu Idris and Publicity Secretary Darius Kurah asserting that he was never a registered member. The SDP’s decisive action, ratified by its ward and state executives, exposed El-Rufai’s waning influence in Kaduna, where local party structures rejected his overtures outright.

 The ADC’s press release, issued on August 4, 2025, by Ahmed Tijjani Mustapha, compounded El-Rufai’s troubles. The Kaduna ADC accused him of attempting to create a faction within the party through “acts of subterfuge” and aligning with rival political interests, notably remnants of his SDP network. Mustapha’s statement was unequivocal: the ADC would not serve as a “personal political vehicle” for El-Rufai or any individual seeking to undermine its democratic ideals. The party’s leadership emphasized its commitment to due process and internal democracy.

The ADC’s rebuke is particularly significant given El-Rufai’s prominent role in the broader opposition coalition, which has adopted the party as its platform for the 2027 elections. His failure to formally register with the ADC in Kaduna, coupled with accusations of trying to hijack the party, mirrors the SDP’s grievances and suggests a pattern of behavior that prioritizes personal ambition over party loyalty. The ADC’s public warning, delivered at a press conference in Kaduna, underscores the party’s determination to maintain its independence and avoid being co-opted by a figure whose political baggage could jeopardize its credibility.

 El-Rufai’s involvement poses significant risks for the ADC. His controversial tenure as governor, marked by accusations of intolerance and persecution of opposition parties like the SDP, has left a bitter taste among Kaduna’s political class. His attempt to bypass ward-level registration and assume leadership roles in both the SDP and ADC suggests a lack of respect for party structures, which could alienate grassroots members and local leaders. Moreover, his alleged efforts to create factions within the ADC, threaten to fracture the party at a critical juncture, undermining its unity and electoral prospects.

If El-Rufai continues to pursue his ambitions without adhering to due process, he risks becoming a liability for the ADC. His presence could deter potential allies who view him as a polarizing figure, while his history of alienating communities in Kaduna could hamper the party’s efforts to build a broad-based coalition. The ADC’s leadership, by publicly calling him out, has signaled its intent to prioritize party unity. This stance, while bold, is a gamble that could either solidify the ADC’s reputation as a disciplined and principled party or alienate El-Rufai’s remaining supporters, who may still wield influence in Kaduna.

 El-Rufai’s loss of political capital in Kaduna is a cautionary tale of how hubris and a disregard for grassroots engagement can erode even the most formidable political legacies. His failure to secure a foothold in either the SDP or ADC reflects a broader shift in Kaduna’s political dynamics, where local party structures are asserting their autonomy and rejecting top-down impositions. The SDP’s ban and the ADC’s warning are not just personal rebukes but also a signal to other political heavyweights that loyalty to party processes and principles should be non-negotiable irrespective of status.

For the ADC, the challenge is how to manage this moment to strengthen its position in Kaduna and beyond. Its success will depend on its ability to maintain internal cohesion, expand its grassroots base, and present a unified front in 2027.

For now, Nasir El-Rufai’s political missteps in Kaduna have significantly diminished his influence. For the ADC, El-Rufai’s travail offers both a warning and an opportunity. By distancing itself from his disruptive tendencies and rallying behind Senator David Mark’s leadership, the ADC can position itself as a disciplined and inclusive force in Kaduna’s political arena. However, it must remain vigilant to ensure that El-Rufai’s baggage does not become an albatross that derails its ambitions.

 Dogo, a public affairs analyst and good governance campaigner, writes from Abuja