TINUBU: A MIDTERM ASSESSMENT

 All things considered, President Tinubu has done remarkably well, reckons ABIODUN OLUWADARE

As Nigeria passes the midpoint of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s first term, one question is starting to echo more loudly across political and policy circles: Who can stop Tinubu in 2027? And more importantly, if they intend to do so, let them first show Nigerians a blueprint that surpasses what Tinubu has already dared to initiate, within just two years.

Against all odds, and in a political culture often defined by hesitation and populist avoidance of hard decisions, Tinubu’s presidency has been characterised by boldness, speed, and structural reform. His administration’s early choices are not only unprecedented in recent Nigerian political history but also transformational in intent and substance.

Let’s be clear: these decisions are not without pain. But the pain may well be the price Nigeria has long needed to pay for genuine progress.

For over four decades, Nigeria’s fuel subsidy regime functioned as a fiscal black hole, swallowing trillions of naira annually, benefiting a cartel of middlemen and smugglers, and distorting domestic pricing without improving access or quality of life for average Nigerians. Previous administrations made half-hearted attempts to reform it, only to buckle under political pressure or mass protest. The result was a recurring cycle of policy cowardice and economic sabotage.

President Tinubu ended the cycle on Day One. In a single, resolute stroke, he dismantled a decades-old drain on the treasury that had become emblematic of Nigeria’s inability to confront its inefficiencies. Though his decision triggered short-term inflation and hardship, especially in transport and food prices, it also signalled a long-overdue shift to fiscal realism.

An estimated ₦4 trillion annually, once lost to opaque subsidy payments, can now be redirected toward nation-building projects, rural roads, mass housing, education, healthcare, and social protection. The government now has breathing room to invest, not borrow recklessly. This is not just a budget correction—it is a moral statement about redirecting wealth from elite capture to collective progress.

Yes, the hardship is real. But so is the potential. What Tinubu has done is reset the national fiscal equation—a bold move that could, in hindsight, define his economic legacy.

Floating the Naira: Rebalancing a Distorted Economy: For years, Nigeria operated a multi-tiered exchange rate system that was a magnet for corruption and capital flight. By artificially fixing the exchange rate, government policies enriched a privileged few who exploited arbitrage windows while discouraging investment, damaging export competitiveness, and starving the Central Bank of credibility.

Tinubu’s administration took the bull by the horns and floated the naira, ending the charade of artificial stability. While the move led to an initial depreciation of the currency and inflationary shockwaves, it also sent a powerful signal: Nigeria is open for honest business.

The naira float was accompanied by a commitment to unify the exchange rate, eliminate arbitrage, and restore investor confidence. For the first time in years, global financial institutions like the World Bank and the IMF began signalling renewed confidence in Nigeria’s long-term economic direction. Multinational investors have taken note, and portfolio flows are gradually rebounding.

This is not just an economic decision; it is a structural pivot. Tinubu is rebuilding the Nigerian economy on market principles, transparency, and investor logic, not bureaucratic guesswork or political appeasement. It is a hard road, but the destination—macroeconomic credibility—is worth it.

Student Loan Act: A Game-Changer for Access to Higher Education: In a landmark policy move, President Tinubu signed into law Nigeria’s first-ever functional student loan scheme, targeting millions of bright but economically disadvantaged young Nigerians. This initiative is not a recycled policy, it is a first-of-its-kind intervention that offers tuition and living expense loans to eligible students in public institutions, repayable only after gainful employment.

Unlike token scholarships that help a few or blanket tuition-free promises that bankrupt governments, this model balances access with sustainability. Loans will be processed digitally, backed by a central coordinating agency, and tied to employment data to prevent abuse. This is how countries build human capital, not by slogans, but by structured investment.

In a country where tertiary education was increasingly becoming a class privilege, Tinubu’s Student Loan Act signals a policy breakthrough, equalising opportunity, incentivising merit, and building a future workforce. For countless families, this is not a campaign promise—it is a generational lifeline.

National Security: From Chaos to Coordination

Before 2023, Nigeria’s security landscape was best described as fragmented and fatigued. Insurgency festered in the North-East, bandits terrorised the North-West, and separatist tensions burned in the South-East. The military often appeared reactive, under-equipped, and bogged down by inter-agency rivalry.

Since assuming office, Tinubu has undertaken a quiet but significant restructuring of Nigeria’s security architecture. He appointed experienced service chiefs, prioritised coordination between the military, DSS, police, and civil defence, and recalibrated regional security frameworks.

Crucially, intelligence-led operations have seen notable successes in decimating insurgent cells and disrupting bandit supply chains. Reports of reclaimed territories, reduced attacks on transport corridors, and restored peace in volatile areas are evidence of progress, not propaganda.

While security challenges persist, the shift is unmistakable. Tinubu is not inventing miracles, he is enforcing accountability, streamlining response, and restoring credibility. Insecurity is being treated as a national crisis, not a political inconvenience.

Tax and Economic Governance Reforms:

Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio has long languished below 7%, one of the lowest in the world, due to poor compliance, informal economic dominance, and inefficient collection systems. Tinubu’s administration has moved decisively to change this by inaugurating the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, led by respected economist Taiwo Oyedele.

This committee is not only reviewing the tax code but is also harmonising levies, digitising tax infrastructure, and eliminating multiple taxation that strangles small businesses. The objective is simple but profound: make tax compliance easier, fairer, and more productive.

This marks a shift from extractive to developmental governance, not just collecting revenue but creating systems where government performance justifies taxation. It also means gradually reducing Nigeria’s reliance on external borrowing, enhancing credit ratings, and attracting long-term capital.

In Tinubu’s vision, governance must be funded domestically and driven by efficiency, not oil windfalls or debt traps.

Debt Repayment: Restoring Nigeria’s Fiscal Sovereignty.

In another bold stroke rarely seen in Nigeria’s recent economic history, President Tinubu’s administration has begun offsetting massive external debts, including the repayment of ₦2.59 trillion owed to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This repayment marks a return to fiscal responsibility, signalling that Nigeria is serious about regaining its financial independence and restoring investor confidence.

By reducing reliance on external credit and honouring obligations promptly, Tinubu is rebuilding Nigeria’s credit profile, laying the groundwork for future investment and long-term macroeconomic stability. It also sharply contrasts with previous administrations that allowed public debt to balloon with little accountability.

So, Who Will Stop Tinubu in 2027? Let Them Come with a Blueprint, Not Just Slogans

It is one thing to criticise from the sidelines, it is another to govern with courage. President Bola Tinubu’s first two years in office have shown that leadership is not about applause but about acting in the national interest, even when it is politically costly. His reforms have bitten hard, but they have also broken ground that no other president in the Fourth Republic dared to touch.

So now we ask again, not sarcastically but seriously: Who will stop Tinubu in 2027?

Let the opposition step forward, but only if they are armed with a superior economic vision, a security strategy that works, and a willingness to reform entrenched systems. Nigerians are done with empty rhetoric. The days of campaign jingles with no substance, promises with no structure, and manifestos with no measurable goals are over.

Tinubu has removed the fraudulent fuel subsidy, a system that allowed elites to get fat while the country bled dry. He did not just remove it; he stayed the course in the face of outrage, protests, and political sabotage. Opponents have criticised the timing of the subsidy removal. Let his critics show us how and when they would have done it, and survived the political fallout.

Tinubu has floated the naira, something even previous governments backed away from. He has taken the heat, watched the markets wobble, and still pressed on, because economic realism beats fiscal illusion. If anyone thinks they can manage the naira better, let them publish their exchange rate model. Let them explain how they would eliminate arbitrage, attract investment, and keep inflation down without creating another black-market monster.

He introduced Nigeria’s first student loan scheme, a revolutionary idea in a country where higher education has always been a privilege reserved for those who could afford it upfront. No leader in Nigeria’s modern democratic history has institutionalised access to education funding like this. So again, if someone wants to beat that, let them propose a more inclusive, sustainable model for youth development and upward mobility.

On security, Tinubu inherited a country plagued by insurgents, bandits, and separatist agitators. Two years in, the tempo of attacks has dropped, the armed forces are being better coordinated, and regional security is being retooled. It is not yet perfect, but it is a measurable improvement. If a would-be challenger thinks they can do better, let them unveil a counter-terror strategy with timelines, metrics, and resources. No more “we will secure Nigeria” slogans, we have heard those for too long.

Under Tinubu, Nigeria is shifting from a culture of avoidance to one of bold engagement. His economic team, comprising seasoned professionals and reformists, has taken on tax reform, blocked leakages, and begun restructuring Nigeria’s fiscal system. His policies are hard, but they are real.

So, again, who will stop Tinubu?

Will it be those who had power before and failed to act? Will it be serial presidential aspirants who, after multiple attempts, still lack a coherent national development plan? Or will it be political opportunists who rise only when it is convenient to oppose, but disappear when real ideas are needed?

If you are coming for Tinubu in 2027, come with data, come with ideas, come with policy, and above all, come with courage. The Nigerian electorate is evolving. They have seen what bold reform looks like. They may be hurting now, but increasingly, they are recognising the difference between real leadership and recycled populism.

2027 is not about who shouts the loudest. It is about who dares to do what Nigeria needs most.

So again—who will stop Tinubu? Let them step forward. And let them come prepared.

If you want to defeat him in 2027, bring your blueprint—and be ready to defend it.

Professor Oluwadare writes from the Nigerian Defence Academy, Kaduna