Citi Cuts Short Term Brent Crude Price to $55

Citi Research has lowered its three-month price forecast for Brent crude to $55 per barrel from a previous estimate of $60 per barrel, as US-Iran nuclear deal talks resume, raising prospects for an eventual agreement.

An agreement between the US and Iran, which could ease sanctions, may drive Brent prices down towards $50 per barrel, Citi said, on increased supply in the market.

But no deal, and potentially escalatory actions like curbing Iran’s nuclear programme, could push prices back to $70 per barrel or more, the bank said.

“We see probabilities at an indicative 60 per cent:40 per cent skew toward an eventual deal,” Citi said in the note, seen by Reuters. US Vice President JD Vance last Wednesday described the talks with Iran as “so far, so good.”

Analysts at Citi acknowledged downside risks that could push prices to $55 occasionally throughout the middle of the year.

The bank maintained its long-term forecast of $60 a barrel Brent in 2025 despite the recent downward trend in oil prices.

“The recent sell-off has come with tariffs and OPEC+ adding supply back to market at an expedited rate, which could yet pause/reverse,” Citi said.