Goldman Sachs: Crude May Hit $93/barrel If Additional Sanctions Hit Iran, Russia

*Nigeria emerges US’ 8th largest oil exporter 

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

Goldman Sachs analysts have predicted Brent crude prices could temporarily surge to $93 per barrel if sanctions successfully curb oil exports from Iran and Russia by a combined 1 million barrels per day (bpd).
In a note shared on X, reported by oilprice.com, the bank outlined a scenario where Iran faces persistent supply disruptions while Russia experiences temporary setbacks, tightening global crude markets.
With geopolitical tensions already pressuring supply chains, traders are watching for any policy shifts that could exacerbate the squeeze.

 “We estimate that Brent could temporarily rise to $93/bbl in a scenario where sanctioned supply falls by 1mb/d persistently for Iran and temporarily for Russia,” Goodman said.
But one potential spanner in the works with Goldman’s $93 per barrel scenario is production plans by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which are facing pressure from Trump to ramp up production to lower crude oil prices—ostensibly for the purposes of forcing Russia’s hand even further to give up its ambitions in Ukraine.

Standard Chartered, however, feels that the US president is unlikely to be successful in his attempts to wield lower oil prices as a geopolitical maneuvre—in part because of the lower oil prices that would sink the US oil industry as well.
According to StanChart, OPEC+ is unlikely to adjust its current production plans, which saw a delay to the ramp-up until April of this year and extends the unwinding period to the end of next year to prevent oversupply in the market.

In October, Goldman Sachs estimated that its Brent price forecast would peak $10-$20 per barrel this year due to potential disruptions in Iranian production.
Meanwhile, Nigeria has emerged as the United States 8th biggest exporter of crude oil behind Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Brazil, Colombia and  Iraq.

Data from Reuters indicated that Canada, which is currently in a tariff war with the United States exports 3.8 million barrels per day to the country and Mexico (457,000 bpd).

Also, Saudi Arabia exports 275,000 bpd to the US; Venezuela (228,000 bpd); Brazil (224,000 bpd); Colombia (210,000 bpd); Iraq (198,000); Nigeria (139,000 bpd) and Ecuador (120,000 bpd).