2023: Apprehension Heightens over Insecurity

Iyobosa Uwugiaren illuminates some of the growing concerns by various stakeholders that the 2023 general election might be threatened by the unending insecurity in the land

As Nigeria is struggling with the huge challenges of insecurity, created by the deadly activities of terrorist group Boko Haram, kidnappers and bandits across the country, there is palpable fear that there may be no peaceful environment to conduct the 2023 general election. The apprehension is created by mounting insecurity across the country.

A recent Blog post by the Ralph Bunche Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, DC, John Campbell, on the website of the Nigeria Security Tracker, a project of the Council on Foreign Relations, suggested that casualties occasioned by terrorists, bandits and kidnappers across the six geo-political zones in Nigeria, since May 29, 2015 till date, is on the increase. And analysts are worried that the security challenges are mounting despite a whopping amount of N5.081trillion that the President Muhammadu Buhari-led administration is said to have spent on defence, as well as, the appropriation of N4.669trillion to the Federal Ministry of Defence from 2016 to date and $1billion for the purchase of military equipment.

However, despite this intense anxiety among stakeholders in the democratic project, insiders at the Defence Headquarters are pointing to the ongoing counter insurgency and counter terrorism operations, which the Nigerian military is stubbornly prosecuting across the country, which they say is gathering steam. There are indications that the military operations are becoming too hot for the enemies.

‘’In what appears to be an anti-climax in their bloody campaign, Boko Haram/ISWAP terrorists have been boxed into a cul-de-sac, courtesy of the unrelenting offensive operations of the Nigerian troops,” a military analyst, Chidi Omeje stated.

He said that almost on daily basis in the past one month, scores after scores of Boko Haram/ISWAP fighters have surrendered to troops in the theatre, with about ‘’300 commanders and foot-soldiers’’ of the group along with their families have so far laid down their arms, denounced violence and renounced membership of the evil organisation.

Attributing the recorded success – in the ongoing battle against terrorist to the ‘’aggressive deployment of intelligence, kinetic and no-kinetic onslaught’’ by the Nigerian Armed Forces, Omeje explained that the operations have led to the death of many of the terrorists and obliteration of their enclaves.

THISDAY reported recently that the Nigerian Air Force’s continued airstrikes and heavy artillery bombardments on the territories of the blood-thirsty terrorists, especially in Sambisa Forest, have put so much pressure on the enemies and thoroughly unsettled them.

The ‘’good news’’ about the military’s operations against the enemies of the country is coming at a time Nigerians and the international community are complaining gloomily about the number of fatalities recorded by the military at the hands of terrorist group and other criminals in the past six years.

With over 20 military officers reportedly killed in three months – after three crashes involving Nigerian Air Force jets, analysts feared that unless some sweeping and radical actions are taken urgently, the military casualties would affect the morale of other troops.

Sadly, several reports – both from local and international groups indicate that in 2020, over 3, 176 persons were killed by the bandits and herdsmen; while over 1,000 students were said to have been kidnapped between January and July 2021. With Zamfara, Niger, Kaduna, Benue, Borno, Adamawa, Sokoto, Katsina, Taraba and Plateau mostly affected by the deadly actions of the criminals, different reports also indicate that as of July 31, 2021, over 1,094 persons have been killed.

In particular, the stories from Southern Kaduna day-after-day are frightening. The Southern Kaduna People’s Union (SOKAPU), an umbrella body for ethnic nationalities in the Southern part of the state, recently raised the alarm over what it described as ‘’genocide’’ against its territories by a terrorist group that wants to take over its land.

The group, at a press conference recently, said that in the past few weeks, thousands of helpless villagers in Zangon Kataf and Kauru local councils – in Southern Kaduna attacked by militias have fled their land to Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) camps and other places where they can find refuge.

According to the President of the SOKAPU, Mr. Jonathan Asake, several villagers had trooped to Kagoro, Kafanchan, neighbouring Jos, Plateau State capital, Kujama and Kaduna metropolis to avoid further attacks by the armed men. And the group is not happy with the slow-response of the state government and security agencies towards what it described as the humanitarian crises perpetrated by armed herdsmen.

“Shockingly, the humanitarian crises generated by this crime against humanity seems not to bother Governor Nasir el-Rufai of Kaduna State.

“Since the siege on Atyap land started last year, with that of Chawai that has been dragging on for over six years now, Governor el-Rufai has never visited any of the scenes of the violence and has never offered any form of assistance to the victims,’’ SOKAPU alleged.

The group explained that in the last one week, atrocities have been committed in two local government areas: Kauru and Zangon Kataf, where 32 people were said to have been killed and four villages sacked.

Katsina, the home state of President Muhammadu Buhari is not spared from these attacks. Governor Aminu Bello Masari, recently begged the Chief of Army Staff (COAS), Lieutenant General Faruk Yahaya, to act urgently and save the state from severe attacks by bandits and kidnappers, saying 10 out of the 34 local government areas of the state are defenceless.

Masari, who expressed worry over the predominant security challenges in the state, affirmed that the worsening sequence of banditry accompanied by kidnapping, rape of innocent women and armed robbery on the state’s highways, were affecting his government’s effort to restore peace and normalcy in the state.

Masari, who urged both residents and security agencies to work together in order to up the ante in the war against bandits, kidnapping and other criminal activities in the state, said the military and other security agencies in Nigeria needed logistics support and manpower to tackle the criminal activities in the country, particularly in the North-west zone of the country.

“Here in Katsina, if we say we are very happy, we are not being honest. We are disturbed with this issue of banditry accompanied with kidnaping, rape of innocent women, armed robbery on our highways. I want technology to be properly deployed to bring these banditry activities under control.

“We are not deceiving ourselves that we will eliminate criminality; it has never been done before, it cannot be done today, neither, can it be done tomorrow, but we can bring it under control in such a way that it does not disturb the way of life of people as we are seeing today.

“10 out of 34 Local Governments in Katsina State are under severe bandits’ attacks daily. With that in mind, there is no way we can sleep. Our phones are permanently on to hear what is happening in local governments. Before breakfast, I am being briefed about what happened last night,” Governor Masari lamented.

While tasking the federal government to act very fast, the governor argued that the purpose of governance is to protect lives, property, honour and dignity of people, saying that when it’s under attack, the entire system is under attack.

In the South-south region, a recent survey titled, ‘’Insecurity in the Niger Delta – A Report on Emerging Threats in Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River Delta, Edo and Rivers Stated,” carried out by a respected non-governmental body, Niger Delta Dialogue, revealed that the zone is experiencing multi-dimensional insecurity.

The report said that having been the “hotbed of an armed militant insurgency’’ that peaked in 2009, other security challenges such as armed robbery, kidnapping, sea piracy, farmer-herder conflict, violent youth gangs and cult groups and other crimes, now form a complex web of insecurity that shapes everyday lives of the people in the zone.

The survey conducted by 15 scholars from different universities, revealed that the range of security challenges in the South-south zone suggested a disturbing continuum of an “accelerated rise’’ in the intensity of violence, social upheaval, corruption in governance, failure of traditional governance mechanism and breakdown in socio-cultural norm.

In the South-east part of country, the story is not different. Between January and July, 2021, over 23 police stations, in addition to a correctional facility, were targeted by the gunmen, leaving in their trail dead officers, burnt police stations, freed prison inmates, and empty armoury.

Like other regions, there are also cases of criminal violence manifesting as cult wars, ransom kidnaps and armed robbery in the troubled region. In addition are constant incidents of pro-Biafra secessionist agitations that turned fatal in some occurrences and currently affecting the economic activities of the zone. There are reports that over 200 people have been killed in over 40 attacks in the zone.

Indeed, Nextier Security, Peace and Development (SPD), an international development consulting firm based in Nigeria, which utilises evidence-based research and policy in developing knowledge and skills for governing the society, disclosed recently that multiple attacks, especially at police stations, courts, and other state infrastructure, have been recorded. “The now-unstable region is increasingly witnessing gruesome murders and incessant attacks by violent actors widely regarded as unknown gunmen,” the group added.

While Nigeria’s security operatives have regularly fingered the indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) and the Eastern Security Network (ESN) for the growing insecurity in the zone, the pro-Biafra groups have continually denied responsibility for the ongoing carnage in the South-east. The frightening situation is said to have left many security/conflict experts confounded towards all-inclusive understanding of the consequences of insecurity in the zone.

In all these, experts said that what is at stake are development, good governance and democracy, especially as the country approaches 2023 general election.

Frances Stewart of Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford, has argued that a peaceful and secure environment is critical to every society since it affects all aspects of economic and socio-politcal development in a country, and is a necessary sin-qua non to the realisation of human rights.

“These have direct effects on the creation of sound, competitive and equitable economic development, which ultimately has positive impact on the whole society.

‘’We should also remember that the world we live in has become increasingly more complex, with new security challenges developing not just on a daily basis but every other minute—counter-terrorism, counter-insurgency, multilateral peace-keeping reconstruction operations, just to mention but a few,’’ the expert stated.

The scholar argued that no country can develop or grow economically without peaceful coexistence among its population, and within its borders.

The researcher explained that peace and security, sustainable economic growth and development and the rule of law are essential to the progress and prosperity of all, advising every government to be committed to an effective multilateral system based on inclusiveness, equity, justice and regional cooperation as the best foundation for achieving consensus and progress on major security challenges.

For a former governor of Anambra State and presidential running mate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2019 general elections, Mr. Peter Obi, there is the urgent need by Nigerians to rescue the country first before any conversation about the 2023 general election.

‘’Let’s deal with issues at hand and leave 2023 alone. There is crisis in this country today. You and I are not safe. Whenever I leave my house to travel, my children are afraid, they want to know where I am going to, my wife is afraid. I am afraid, myself. Nobody is safe any longer. I live in the village. I go round and see people who are not sure of where their next meal will come from,’’ he said.

Like many Nigerians, who are disturbed by the continued killing of defenceless persons, the embattled national chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Uche Secondus, also expressed fears that the 2023 general elections may not hold unless government tackles the rising insecurity across the country.

Amidst these apparent concerns, many critical stakeholders are hopeful that assurances from the military that the country would surmount the current security challenges – based on the renewed determination of the army and other security agencies, might solve the security challenges that threatens the 2023 general election as planned by the Independent National Electoral Commission.

QUOTE

In Katsina, if we say we are very happy, we are not being honest. We are disturbed with this issue of banditry accompanied with kidnaping, rape of innocent women, armed robbery on our highways. I want technology to be properly deployed to bring these banditry activities under control. We are not deceiving ourselves that we will eliminate criminality; it has never been done before, it cannot be done today, neither, can it be done tomorrow, but we can bring it under control in such a way that it does not disturb the way of life of people