N’ east Crisis: Loss of Lives could Hit 1.1m in 2030, Says UNDP

By Michael Olugbode

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has raised the alarm that lives lost to conflict in troubled North-east may hit 1.1 million should the crisis continues till 2030 with the current deficit in development not addressed.

A statement on Thursday by the UN agency, drawing its analysis from a report it had earlier released on Tuesday, stated that the conflict in the North-east could amount to the loss of 1.1 million Nigerian lives by 2030 if the current investment deficit in development is not addressed.

According to the statement, since 2009, the devastating conflict in North-eastern Nigeria has directly resulted in the deaths of approximately 35,000 people as a consequence of insurgency.

It lamented that indirect deaths including disease and hunger resulting from the conflict’s physical and economic destruction already far outnumber those from direct causes.

It said that the study, ‘Assessing the Impact of Conflict on Development in north-east Nigeria’, also revealed that critical aspects of progress and development, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), poverty, malnutrition, infant mortality, education, water availability and sanitation, may not return to pre-conflict levels even by 2030.

Findings from the report show that for each casualty caused directly by insurgency, an additional nine people, primarily children, have lost their lives due to lack of food and resources. As a result, more than 90 per cent of conflict-attributable deaths are of children under the age of five.

The report further noted that physical and economic destruction wrought by the insurgency has dismantled the already fragile health and food systems, as less than 60 per cent of health facilities in Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe States are fully functional, while a quarter are either completely destroyed or non-functional.

The report also lamented that attacks from insurgency have also led to massive internal displacement, as more than 1.8 million Nigerians are displaced in Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe States, with the vast majority (nearly 1.5 million) located in Borno.

It stated that 1.8 million students were out of school in 2020, and without increased investment in development efforts, the average Nigerian in the North-east would have lost a full year of education by 2030.

The report however acknowledged that the Government of Nigeria has made great strides in retaking and stabilizing large areas of the region, stressing that continued investment in development from both national and international stakeholders is needed.

The statement quoted UNDP Resident Representative, Mr. Mohamed Yahya,

to have said: “Without continued investment in development as a long-term solution, the protracted conflict in North-east Nigeria will continue to impact other parts of the country and the entire Sahel region,” adding that: “There is a need for international partners and national stakeholders to ensure that funds are invested not only on life saving and humanitarian needs but also on mid- and long-term development priorities in order to enable Nigeria to achieve the SDGs and attain the AU 2063.”

Its findings suggested that to overcome the conflict, development efforts need to be focused on the stabilization of affected areas through a community level approach that enhances physical security and access to justice, rehabilitation of essential infrastructure and basic service delivery as well as revitalization of the local economy such as market stalls, schools and police stations.

This UNDP report, coming on the heels of a UN OCHA study, reinforces its findings that stabilization is the way to prevent upwards of 29 million people in the Sahel Region needing costly humanitarian aid.