2023 and Ogun State’s Unusual Scenario

In 2023, Ogun State will present a different but interesting scenario as all the surviving former and incumbent governors of the state are now in the same party, writes Kayode Fasua

Late last year, former governor of Ogun State, Otunba Gbenga Daniel, had smiled broadly during a press conference. He said of Governor Dapo Abiodun, his second successor in office: “The last time I was in his office, he said to me, ‘I am studying your handing over note’, and I believe he will do well to give it consideration’.

That statement was symptomatic of the affection reserved for Abiodun by Daniel.
Only three months ago, Daniel dumped the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Now, as APC member, he seems a strange bedfellow with his successor, former governor Ibikunle Amosun, who is now a senator for Ogun Central.
In the same vein, the man whom Daniel defeated in 2003, Chief Segun Osoba, is also in the APC. But it is equally intriguing that Amosun is in APC as opponent to the combination of Daniel, Osoba and Abiodun.

How It Started
The political rivalry between Governor Abiodun and Amosun, who is currently representing Ogun Central District at the Senate, did not just start. Political observers in the state would rather see the clash of interests between the two politicians as a product of supremacy battle, dating to the 2019 general election.

Then, Amosun, a governor under the ruling APC had served out his unrenewable two terms and was shopping for a successor. Same way, some power brokers within the APC were scared of allowing the governor to produce his loyalist as succesor.
They were said to be at variance with Amosun’s independent, uncontrollable and unpredictable political machine.

Amosun had anointed a House of Representatives member from the Yewa political axis of Egba stock, Adekunle Akinlade, to succeed him. But, first, the Ijebu stock would have none of it as they believed that power must shift after eight years’ rule of the Egba.

“The reality in Ogun is that, power is being rotated between Ijebu and Egba; so, the Ijebu people see Yewa as a division of Egba, just as Remo is a division of Ijebu.

“So it cannot just work that Egba, having produced governor for eight years, will hand over to a Yewa man, whom we see as also an Egba person,” Chief Samuel Sonoike, an APC chieftain in Sagamu, analysed.
Abiodun, the current governor, hails from Iperu-Remo, an Ijebu community.

A second leg to the political tiff at the period, observers contended, was how the APC power brokers comprising the party’s National Leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu; Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, former Ogun governor, Osoba, and former Governor Daniel drafted Abiodun, who had ordinarily wanted to be a senator, into the governorship race.

That master stroke, apparently was like a blow below the belt for an Amosun reputed as ‘a beloved son’ to President Muhammadu Buhari. Sensing that the gang-up of the power brokers could make him clash with the President, Amosun dusted up one of the sleepy political parties, Peoples Democratic Movement (DPM) for Akinlade to pursue his governorship dream there. But Amosun remained in the APC.

At the famed riotous campaign rally of the APC in Abeokuta in 2019, that had Buhari, Tinubu, Osoba, Abiodun and the others in attendance, a visibly angry Amosun exclaimed in Yoruba: Awa o beru aja to n gbo o, bikose wipe alaja ni a bu owo fun.

It is translated as, ‘We do not fear the bragaddocio of the barking dog; only that we accord respect to the dog owner’. His assertion was viewed to mean that he was not afraid of Abiodun and his godfathers but only accorded respect to the personality of President Buhari. Abiodun went on to win the election.

Daniel, who was governor for eight years, has always had own pound of flesh to take from Amosun, in what observers describe as irresolvable political paranoia. Apart from the fact that Daniel defeated Amosun in the 2007 governorship contest, for the eight years of Amosun as governor, Daniel was as politically betroubled as he was economically undermined.
Apart from having his days with the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the courts, over corruption allegations, the ex-governor’s Conference Hotel in Abeokuta, a multi-billion naira edifice, was sealed off by Amosun.

Liberation finally came the way of Daniel in the emergence of Abiodun, who not only drew him closer but also lifted embargoes placed on his business interests.
Even, while still in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2019, Daniel had assisted Abiodun through his political structures, to garner votes. The metamophorsis of political collaboration between the two was recently completed, as Daniel defected to the ruling APC.

The 2023 Permutation
Those close to Daniel revealed that his sole purpose of dumping the PDP for the APC was to help Abiodun secure a second term in office. Abiodun, it would seem, has begun deft political moves, having realised that attempting to pacify or entice Amosun to gain the latter’s support for his reelection would only amount to flogging a dead horse.

Already, the governor has been enlarging his coast with increasing political appointments and sundry concessions to party leaders across the state; and has, by the token, depleted the ranks of Amosun’s loyalists.

In Yewa, however, Abiodun enjoins the support of Nasir Isiaka, the governorship candidate of African Demicratic Congress (ADC) in the 2019 election. He similarly gains wide acceptance among his Ijebu clan.
But what may be giving the governor sleepless nights are the Egba and Egbado areas where Amosun is sing-song. Amosun recently asked all his loyalists in PDM, including six serving House of Assembly members, to return to the APC, which may have meant that the former governor has some game plans up his sleeves.

Already, there is a raging war of words between Abiodun and Amosun, this signalling that the governor’s main opposition in the 2023 election may be mainly from his party, the APC.
This is because, the death of Senator Buruji Kashamu, and the defection of Daniel to APC have weakened the opposition PDP in the state, considerably.

In the latest spits, the governor claimed that Amosun abandoned many road projects before he left office and that he left behind over N50bn debts, thus drifting the state into a sort of insolvency.

But the Amosun camp has also reacted, accusing the Abiodun government of cooking up lies “to shield its inefficiency and corrupt tendencies”.
As the blame game continues, observers read only one thing into the Ogun political hoopla: the 2023 elections.