Gilbert Osas
As the political climate heats up in anticipation of the September 2024 Edo gubernatorial election, the mainstream narrative revolves around the established trio of the All Progressives Congress (APC), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the Labour Party (LP).
However, beneath this predictable surface lies the potential for a white knight – an unexpected and unconventional candidate who could redefine the political landscape in Edo State.
In past elections, Edo State has a track record of voters favouring personalities over political parties. This trend could disrupt the apparent dominance of the traditional top three parties, opening doors for an unforeseen contender with genuine capacity, a proven track record, and ample funding to emerge victorious. That is what many refer to as the White Knight effect as the elections draw near. Although, no one can say for sure who that could possibly be within the sea of top candidates presently vying for the post.
However, there are several powerful factors that would determine this. First is the Obidients Factor. The influence of the Obidients, a group associated with Peter Obi, cannot be underestimated. Their role in securing a remarkable 90% victory for the Labour Party in Edo during the previous presidential election showcases their sway.
Aligning with the Obidients and tapping into the discontent within the major parties could lead to a surprising win for a dark horse in the gubernatorial race.
What this means is that the battle for the governorship race goes beyond the present permutations that it would be a contest for the top three. The struggle for the number three slot extends beyond the mainstream trio, with smaller parties like the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Action Alliance (AA), Zenith Labour, and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) entering the fray. This is fuelled by the displacement of top talent from major parties and internal crises within these political giants.
While Asue Ighodalo of PDP, Monday Okpebholo of APC, and Olumide Akpata of Labour take centre stage as gladiators, a tectonic shift in political behaviour is evident in Edo State. The emergence of Akpata in Labour, despite opposition from party leadership, indicates a potential political tsunami. Giants sidelined by an alleged rigged process within their parties may either move on or stage a comeback, possibly revitalizing smaller parties to challenge the status quo.
A seasoned politician and pastor, Ize-Iyamu, disenfranchised within the APC, adds an intriguing dynamic to the race. There is also influence of Anselm Ojezua, a grassroots politician reportedly upset with the current governor. Ojezua has secured funding to challenge from outside the PDP. And then, there is Prince Tom Iseghohi: A business mogul and charismatic leader, he withdrew from the Labour Party primaries and intends to pursue his gubernatorial bid through PUP Culture. Add Dennis Idahosa, a politician with a mysterious loss in the APC primaries, he may not stop at the court and could add further complexity to the race.
With a projected strategic alliances between the Obidients and disenfranchised members from major parties, there is a likely possibility of an emergency of a formidable force, potentially leading to an unexpected contender securing the gubernatorial win.
This is more so as the Labour Party has been fractured into four factions and a mere 22,000 membership makes it vulnerable. This creates an opportunity for a new political force to displace Labour on a smaller platform, potentially reshaping the political landscape.
As Edo State approaches the 2024 gubernatorial election, the focus on mainstream parties may overshadow the potential for a white knight to emerge. Strategic alliances, smaller parties, and the electorate’s inclination towards personalities could make this election one of the most unpredictable and intriguing in recent history. The disenfranchised gladiators, if they play their cards right, may pave the way for a political shift that Edo State never saw coming. Who is The White Knight? Any of these seven gladiators could emerge as “Governor Elect”. The white knight is on the horizon, and the chessboard is set for an extraordinary match.
* Mr. Osas, a political commentator, writes from Abuja
