Oluchi Chibuzor
The International Labour Organisation (ILO) has forecasted a slight increase in global unemployment in 2024, signalling emerging labour market challenges and a complex global employment scenario.
In a report titled, “ILO’s World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2024 Report,” ILO noted that joblessness and the jobs gap have both fallen below pre-pandemic levels while growing inequalities and stagnant productivity are causes for concern.
The report highlighted disparities between high and low-income countries, noting higher unemployment and poverty rates in lower-income nations.
It also pointed out that a significant portion of the global workforce remains in informal employment, while stressing that key concerns include worsening income inequality and the impact of inflation on real incomes, especially in G20 countries.
The report underscored the need for policy interventions focused on social justice to ensure a fair and sustainable global economic recovery.
However, in a separate statement, ILO said that Labour markets have shown surprising resilience despite deteriorating economic conditions, but recovery from the pandemic remains uneven as new vulnerabilities and multiple crises are eroding prospects for greater social justice.
Commenting, the ILO Director-General, Gilbert F. Houngbo, said the outlook remains uncertain, stressing that the report looks behind the headline labour market figures and what it reveals must give great cause for concern.
He said it is starting to look as if these imbalances are not simply part of pandemic recovery but structural.
According to him, “The workforce challenges it detects pose a threat to both individual livelihoods and businesses and it is essential that we tackle them effectively and fast. Falling living standards and weak productivity combined with persistent inflation create the conditions for greater inequality and undermine efforts to achieve social justice. And without greater social justice we will never have a sustainable recovery.”
According to the report, “The 2023 global unemployment rate stood at 5.1 per cent, a modest improvement from 2022 when it stood at 5.3 per cent. The global jobs gap and labour market participation rates also improved in 2023.”
The report projects that the labour market outlook and global unemployment will both worsen.
“In 2024 an extra two million workers are expected to be looking for jobs, raising the global unemployment rate from 5.1 per cent in 2023 to 5.2 per cent. Disposable incomes have declined in the majority of G20 countries and, generally, the erosion of living standards resulting from inflation is unlikely to be compensated quickly,” the report stated.
Furthermore, it pointed out important differences persist between higher and lower income countries.
“While the jobs gap rate in 2023 was 8.2 per cent in high-income countries, it stood at 20.5 per cent in the low-income group, similarly, while the 2023 unemployment rate persisted at 4.5 per cent in high-income countries, it was 5.7 per cent in low-income countries, “it stated.
“Moreover, working poverty is likely to persist, “the report warned noting, “that despite quickly declining after 2020, the number of workers living in extreme poverty (earning less than $2.15 per person per day in purchasing power parity terms) grew by about 1 million in 2023, the number of workers living in moderate poverty (earning less than $3.65 per day per person in PPP terms) increased by 8.4 million in 2023. Income inequality has also widened, the WESO Trends warns, adding that the erosion of real disposable income, “bodes ill for aggregate demand and a more sustained economic recovery.”
According to the report, labour market imbalances showed women’s participation has bounced back quickly, but a notable gender gap still persists, especially in emerging and developing nations.
