ARDA: Refining Output to Peak by 2027 at 77.6m Metric Tons

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

The African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA) has said that refinery output on the African continent will peak in 2027 at about 77.6 million metric tons per year.

Speaking in Cairo, Egypt, at the Second High-Level Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)-Africa Dialogue Meeting, Executive Secretary of ARDA, Anibor Kragha, projected that there would be rapid growth in fuel demand in Africa in the next two decades.

During the event, OPEC, African Energy Commission, African Petroleum Producers Organisation (APPO) and ARDA engaged on the need for a robust intra-African oil and gas industry.

Kragha however warned that public health challenges may result unless cleaner fuel is prioritised, stressing that import requirements for transport fuels will continue to grow in sub-Saharan Africa, making the region the world’s largest importer by 2030.

According to him, the continent would in the next four years see a peak increase of 52.7 million metric tons compared to African refinery capacity of 2019, reflecting an increase of about 212 per cent. 

“Higher peak output reflects new refineries in Angola and Guinea and restarts of refineries in Cameroon and South Africa (Sapref). Subsequent closures driven by the push for cleaner fuel specifications will be offset by opening of the new refinery in Uganda in 2028,” Kragha stated.

He also noted that Africa’s growing energy demands must be met with cleaner fuels to address pollution and public health issues. 

According to him, separate implementation strategies are needed for cleaner fuels, lower-carbon power generation and sustainable renewable energy solutions in Africa.  He disclosed further that a measured, decade-by-decade sustainable finance plan was urgently needed on the continent to ensure investments are made to deliver a unique African energy transition plan.

The ARDA executive secretary said coordinated refinery upgrade and supply and distribution infrastructure projects were critical, adding that ARDA remained committed to securing project financing for strategic opportunities in African downstream oil sector.

He added that a coordinated strategy for storage and distribution investments would be required to deliver an energy transition plan for Africa.
Kragha stressed that there was need for regional and pan-African pipelines to connect the continent’s energy centres as well as deep water ports to reduce congestion and ultimately reduce costs associated with petroleum products imports.

“Inclusive and equitable energy transition roadmap must be deployed that captures priorities, challenges and perspectives of Africa’s low-emitting countries.
“The roadmap must not prioritize near-term emissions reductions (with relatively little climate benefits) over support for economic development and energy transformation,” he said.

At the event, the Secretary General of OPEC, Haitham Al-Ghais said: “The opportunities for the continent will be significant in the years ahead, but there will undoubtedly be a great number of challenges in store as this industry continues to evolve towards a lower-carbon future.”

Also, the Secretary General of APPO, Dr. Omar Farouk , speaking at the event said the challenge of energy transition for Africa was a lot more daunting.
He pointed out that a study conducted by APPO on the future of the oil and gas industry in Africa in light of the energy transition identified three imminent challenges.