Atiku, Tinubu and Climate Change

BY BENNETT OGHIFO

Now that the candidates of all the political parties contesting in next year’s election have emerged, it is imperative to gauge their knowledge of how climate change will influence the national economy in the years ahead and what policies they have to navigate a non-fossil fuel world of the future, as energy transition takes centre stage. Without prejudice to the candidates of the other parties, we believe that the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential flagbearer, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and Asiwaju Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) should have their agenda ready on how to tackle this problem. The world has agreed to gradually phase out fossil, the fulcrum of Nigeria’s economy. Our gas is still fossil fuel, though cleaner, but how much time can the government buy for it to be used to power the nation’s economy?

Today, there are fears of widening poverty ratio, forced migration and all forms of social ills and conflicts, particularly in border communities and watersheds, among others. This will definitely happen unless whoever emerges president understands the dynamics of global policies on the environment and climate change to enable him institute deliberate local policies that will be in lockstep. Of course, with assistance from wealthy nations.

As determined by scientists, the earth’s temperature is rising, causing global warming with resultant dire and extreme weather events that are a direct threat to human existence. Humanity, has since the first Climate Change Convention in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil, been searching for ways to keep the earth’s temperature down to make it harmless. The first breakthrough was in Paris in 2015 when it was agreed that nation’s should state their nationally determined contributions to keep global temperatures at 1.5 degrees Celsius. The 1.5 °C target is the goal of the Paris Agreement, which calls for countries to take concerted climate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to limit global warming. Nigeria, like other African countries, submitted its nationally determined contributions and this is what our emerging president and legislators must follow closely.

President Muhammadu Buhari alluded to the fact that there are imminent consequences if the nation’s leadership fails on good environmental governance when he addressed the 16th African Union Extra-ordinary Session of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government on Humanitarian Crises in African and Pledging Conference that was held in Malabo, Equatorial Guinea, recently. The envisaged humanitarian crises President Buhari and other African leaders are alluding to are already a reality on the continent. For instance, global warming, according to scientists, is responsible for rising levels in sea level/waters, in some countries, shrinking of rivers and lakes.

Last year at COP26 (conference of the parties to the UN framework convention on climate change) in Glasgow, Scotland, emphasis was placed on countries, particularly those in the developed global North, to walk the talk of their commitment to assisting developing/least developed countries adapt to and mitigate the harmful effects of climate change. The developing countries, including Nigeria, are demanding the implementation of the commitment by the developed world to release the USD$100 billion promised.

Specifically, in 2009 at the United Nations climate summit in Copenhagen, rich nations made a significant pledge to channel US$100 billion a year to less wealthy nations by 2020, to help them adapt to climate change and mitigate further rises in temperature. That promise was not kept and thrown into this is the predicament of developing countries in navigating the technicalities to enable access to the fund. Our emerging leaders must understand that the money will not come on a platter of any kind and that this was a major source of frustrations and tensions for developing countries last year at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, UK.

Perhaps, only Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, who was defeated at the APC primaries has addressed the grave position of Nigeria’s economy in terms of global demand for energy transition. Osinbajo believes the conditions the global rich are imposing on developing nations to enable them access the fund are too stringent, stating that it was hypocritical since they would not set such a high target for themselves. In his recent article published in The Economist, the vice president said, “We must close the global energy inequality gap. Africans need more than just lights at home. We want abundant energy at scale so as to create industrial and commercial jobs. To participate fully in the global economy, we will need reliable low-cost power for facilities such as data centres and, eventually, for millions of electric vehicles.”

The energy statistics for African countries is disturbing. “Total electricity use for more than a billion people, covering all 48 sub-Saharan African countries except South Africa, is less than that used by Spain (home to just 47 million). The dearth of power hurts livelihoods and destroys the dreams of hundreds of millions of young people.”

The thrust of Osinbajo’s presentation is that by 2050 Nigeria will need to generate 15 times more electricity than is done today. That ambitious goal will require vast resources. The reason is that all Nigerians deserve to enjoy the benefits of modern energy that are taken for granted in the rich world. “We should aim to generate a national average power output of at least 1,000 kilowatt-hours per person.”

Now that we have Tinubu, Atiku, Peter Obi and others on the tickets of the parties for the 2023 general election, Nigerians must engage them on how they intend to tackle the challenge of environment and sustainable development of our country.

BENNETT OGHIFO Trained in news writing by Reuters Foundation at Rhodes University, Grahams Town, South Africa, Bennett Eyituoyo Oghifo holds a bachelor’s degree in English and master’s in public administration from the University of Benin and a Post Graduate Diploma in Mass Communication from the University of Lagos. Oghifo is a fellow of Leadership for Environment and Development, (LEAD International), a global network supported by the Rockefeller Foundation, and a member of Africa Association of Science Journalists.