THE HEMORRHAGING OF AFGHANISTAN

The Taliban needs to refresh their thinking. Laptops must replace guns, writes Rajendra Aneja

The fear, chaos and literal dissolution of Afghanistan, consequent to the withdrawal of the American troops, has shocked the global conscience and sensibilities. The TV images of Afghans risking their lives, clinging to the wheels of departing aircrafts, in desperate attempts to leave the country, are horrifying. The pictures and reports of women and children wandering, desperate to escape or find some food and water, are outrageous. A gargantuan humanitarian disaster is brewing in Afghanistan, during these Covid-19 times.

The re-emergence of the Taliban in Afghanistan will change the geopolitical paradigms and ecosystem in Asia and Middle East. Afghanistan will now always be in the news as the emerging hotspot of repression in the world, along with countries like North Korea, Belarus, etc. The Taliban will rule the country imperiously without any elections or public sanction. Despite some tentative reassurances, women will not be permitted to study or work. Erstwhile government and army members could be targeted in vengeance. Religious indoctrination will be the norm. Free thinking will be penalised.

There is widespread criticism of President Biden on the hasty departure from Afghanistan. It is understandable that the USA after fortifying Afghanistan for 20 years, wanted the Afghans to manage their country. America had trained an Afghan army of 300,000 and equipped them with modern arms. They were even paying the salaries of the Afghan army. Over 20 years, America has expended a few trillion dollars in Afghanistan. Yet the Taliban army of only 75,000 fighters, fell the Afghan government army in a few days, like a pack of cards. The world is shell-shocked.

In the movie Godfather II, Al Pacino predicts after a visit to Cuba, that Fidel’s Castro’s rebels would win. His logic was that government soldiers fight and die in battle because it is their job and they are paid. However, he saw, that the rebels were willing to die for their cause. A similar scenario played out in Afghanistan. The government soldiers fought, since it is their job. They stop fighting, if their President flees. However, the Taliban soldiers fight with passion for a cause; it is not just a job for them.

Perhaps, American troops could have departed from Afghanistan in phases over a two-three-year period, to ensure that the local government and army could manage the situation. This would have given an opportunity to Afghan soldiers to take control, state by state. Anyway, there is no point in crying over spilt milk. The train has already left.

The comparison of the American walk-out from Afghanistan with Vietnam in 1975, is superfluous. When America left Vietnam, the Viet Cong led by Ho Chi Minh, swiftly captured the entire country. Now, after 30 years, Vietnam is an emerging economic power. The Vietnamese put their agony, hurt and pain behind them to build a new future. Vietnam exports the finest garments and electronics components. Vietnamese are industrious and serious. No such hope exists in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan haemorrhages. It will continue to be the playground of superpowers. The USA, Britain and Russia have already burnt their fingers, in managing the Taliban in the past. So, they will prefer to remain in the shadows and try to manoeuvre events, rather than engage directly or militarily. They will heed the warning given by the British Nobel Prize winner, Rudyard Kipling, “When you’re wounded and left on Afghanistan’s plains, and the women come out to cut up what remains, jest roll to your rifle and blow out your brains and go to your gawd like a soldier.” The Afghan men and women, are tough fighters.

China will fill the new vacuum in Afghanistan. The Taliban will be mesmerised by Chinese infrastructure promises. The country needs rail links, roads, bridges, airports, electricity and military training. China will pamper the Taliban with these projects’ aka toys. However, knowing the Taliban, they will accept all the infrastructure gifts, but not tolerate any ideological or operational intervention.

India is rightly concerned with the developments in the region. In the past, Afghanistan under the Taliban had become a haven for violent and anti-Western movements like Al Qaeda, etc. “Mujahideen” (guerrilla freedom fighters), could move again from Afghanistan to the Indian borders, near Kashmir, to create new thorns. This could impact India’s development agenda.

Pakistan is gleeful with the reinstatement of the Taliban. This is unfortunate. Pakistan should be focussing on its agenda of developing and enriching its citizens. Economic growth should be the focus of Pakistan.

With the Taliban in power, expect regression, not progress. Taliban does not offer a future. It offers the medieval.

Now, the priority of the world community should be to “damage control” and preserve the lives and livelihoods of the common citizens of Afghanistan, who cannot exit the country. The world must unite to ensure the safety of the Afghans.

The dialogue with the Taliban should continue. Taliban should respect the lives of the locals and refrain from vengeance against former government employees. The key priority should be to supply food, water and medical aid to those who need them. The United Nations can play a major role in ensuring that aid reaches the needy.

The Taliban should facilitate the exit of foreigners and staff of various embassies. Kabul airport resembled a swarming, anarchic bus terminus on 16 August. Flights were suspended. Thousands of foreign staff, waited to be evacuated. Taliban’s cooperation will be essential for the smooth functioning of Kabul airport and departures of foreigners. The world will have to be pragmatic in managing the Taliban.

The Taliban leaders should also introspect to evolve a contemporary government. It is horrendous publicity that people are ready to cling to the body of an aircraft, fall from the skies and die, rather than live in the new regime. Women from Afghanistan have voiced grave concerns about being able to study and work. The primary responsibility of any leader or government is to feed and protect the people. All else, is secondary. The Taliban too, needs to refresh their thinking. Laptops must replace guns.

Aneja was Managing Director of Unilever Tanzania. He is an alumnus of Harvard Business School and the author of books entitled, “Rural Marketing across Countries and “Business Express”. He is a Management Consultant