PREPARING NIGERIA FOR THE EL NIÑO CHALLENGE

The current El Niño event is an opportunity to strengthen the country’s preparedness culture, writes ABDULHAMID ABDULLAHI ALIYU

Nigeria’s preparedness for climate-related emergencies is facing another important test as a strong El Niño event gathers momentum, with the potential to influence weather patterns, livelihoods and public safety in the months ahead. For a country already grappling with recurring floods, dry spells, rising temperatures and other climate-related challenges, the development is a reminder that the consequences of a disaster are often determined long before it occurs.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon associated with the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This warming affects atmospheric circulation and can alter rainfall and temperature patterns across different parts of the world. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), in its September 2026 update, confirmed that the event was firmly established and expected to strengthen, with a near-certain likelihood of persisting through February 2027. The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) had also confirmed the onset of a strong El Niño event in its August climate update.

However, the implications for Nigeria require careful attention. El Niño does not produce identical weather conditions everywhere, and its effects in any country depend on other regional climate systems. Its influence can contribute to unusual temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risks of heat stress, water shortages, pressure on agriculture and, in some locations, weather-related emergencies. These possibilities make reliable forecasts, timely public information and practical preparedness particularly important.

The challenge is not simply to understand the phenomenon but to ensure that government institutions and communities are ready to respond to the risks it may create. This is where the work of the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) becomes particularly relevant.

Under the leadership of its Director General, Mrs. Zubaida Umar, the Agency has continued to strengthen its approach to disaster management, with greater emphasis on early warning, coordination and anticipatory action. The objective is to move beyond responding after an emergency has occurred and build systems that enable relevant authorities to identify threats, prepare communities and take necessary steps before situations deteriorate.

One significant development was the directive by Vice President Kashim Shettima in June 2026 for the activation of the Fusion and Trigger Room concept within NEMA. Following a meeting of the Anticipatory Action Task Force, the initiative was designed to strengthen the coordination of information, identify emerging risks and support timely decisions on early action against flooding and other climate-related hazards. NEMA also disclosed that it had prioritised high-risk areas and issued flood early-warning advisories to support preparedness.

The Agency has also strengthened its operational information system. On August 4, 2026, Mrs. Umar activated the National Emergency Operations Centre to improve the monitoring, collation and analysis of information on the flood situation across the country. The Centre is expected to provide a central platform for harmonising information from relevant sources and supporting coordinated decisions during emergencies.

Beyond its internal structures, effective disaster preparedness depends on cooperation among institutions with different but complementary responsibilities. The importance of this was reflected in the inter-agency meeting hosted by NiMet on August 21, 2026, ahead of the implementation of the Early Warnings for All initiative in Nigeria. NEMA, NiMet, the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency, the National Space Research and Development Agency, the Nigerian Communications Commission and other partners participated in discussions around the country’s 2026–2029 implementation roadmap for a coordinated, people-centred early-warning system.

These efforts are important, but their success must ultimately be measured by what happens beyond government offices and emergency coordination centres. A forecast does not protect a household simply because it has been issued. It becomes useful when the information reaches people in language they understand and prompts them to take appropriate action.

The scale of Nigeria’s exposure to flooding illustrates the importance of this responsibility. The Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency identified 14,118 communities in 266 local government areas across 33 states and the Federal Capital Territory as being at high risk of flooding in 2026. Such figures underline the need for local authorities to strengthen drainage systems, enforce appropriate land-use regulations, prevent construction on waterways and ensure that evacuation arrangements are in place where necessary.

Citizens also have a responsibility to take warnings seriously. During periods of intense heat, people should drink sufficient clean water, reduce unnecessary exposure to direct sunlight, wear light clothing and pay particular attention to children, older persons and people who may be more vulnerable to heat-related illness. Households should use water carefully, maintain clean surroundings and follow reliable weather updates from NiMet and NEMA.

For farmers, access to timely climate information can help guide decisions on planting, crop selection, water use and other farming practices. Communities in flood-prone areas should keep drainage channels clear, avoid dumping refuse in waterways and never attempt to cross flooded roads or moving water. Where evacuation advice is issued, residents should act promptly rather than wait until the situation becomes dangerous.

State and local governments must also translate national warnings into practical interventions. This includes investing in drainage and water-management infrastructure, strengthening local emergency committees, supporting public awareness campaigns and ensuring that vulnerable communities are not left out of preparedness plans. Traditional rulers, community leaders, civil society organisations and the media have equally important roles in ensuring that safety information reaches the people who need it.

Ultimately, no single agency can prevent every climate-related emergency. NEMA’s responsibility to coordinate disaster management must be matched by the commitment of other government institutions and the willingness of citizens to act on credible information. The current El Niño event should therefore be treated not merely as a weather development but as an opportunity to strengthen the country’s preparedness culture.

The true measure of disaster management is not only how quickly emergency teams respond after tragedy strikes, but how many lives, homes and livelihoods are protected because action was taken early. As Nigeria navigates the months ahead, the message is clear: preparedness cannot begin when disaster arrives. It must begin before the storm.