Adeleke: Winning The Battle For Osun

REUBEN ABATI

The success of the Gubernatorial election held in Osun State on Saturday, August 15, 2026 had implications that went beyond the boundaries of the state. The lead up to the election had been marked by highly febrile conflict, violence and so much anxiety. Being the last major election to be conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), before the 2027 general, nationwide elections, it was a major litmus test for INEC’s preparedness, a dress and technical rehearsal, and the panic was by no measure small especially as 12 local governments out of the 30 local governments became killing fields. As the elections drew closer there was hardly a day without reports of thuggery, killings, mayhem and arrests. The ruling, incumbent Accord Party in the state, and the Governor’s campaign organization, the Imole Campaign Council consistently accused the All Progressives Congress (APC), the ruling party in Abuja, and its local agents – specifically the former Governor, and Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Gboyega Oyetola, and also former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola of using Federal Might to intimidate and harass the Accord Party and its supporters in Osun State. The language of politics became violent. The Accord Party had to petition the Inspector General of Police to redeploy the State Commissioner of Police for turning the State Police Command into a branch of the APC.

When IGP Tunji Disu eventually visited Osogbo for an on-the spot assessment, he told the state Governor that the report on his table was that the State Government House had become a hiding place for criminals in the state. That sounded really like the IGP referring to the Governor himself as a criminal – were it not for the immunity that he enjoys, he could have been arrested. But the IGP’s visit did not stop the spread of violence. At a point, over 70 election-related violent incidents were reported, with a total of about 30 deaths. The state was caught under a climate of fear. Observers were worried about the possibility of voter apathy, more so as some party chieftains such as Senator Francis Fadahunsi (APC, Osun East), Mr. Francis Eniade (APC), Hon Wole Oke, the APC Osun campaign Director-General, who accused the Accord Party of killing his nephew, Dele Ayegbo in Esa Oke, Obokun Local Government Area were at the centre of the allegations of violence. There were reciprocal accusations and the situation got worse. Tension has never been far from Osun elections. The stakes were high. The anxiety was legitimate.

But now that the elections have come and gone, there is a palpable sense of relief across the nation that the worst did not happen. The police Headquarters had deployed over 15, 000 personnel, with a designated Commissioner of Police for the election, and an Assistant Inspector General of Police (AIG) at the Headquarters overseeing the process. The Police Service Commission also deployed a high-powered delegation to monitor the conduct of police officers. Other security agencies deployed over 10, 000. INEC recruited 30,000 ad hoc officials to man the polling units – 3, 763 units, 332 wards, over 2.3 million registered voters, 15 political parties vying for one seat – the Governorship. On the eve of the election, a joint military and para-military parade on the streets of Osogbo was so long and so intimidating, it seemed as if war was afoot.

On Saturday, election day, the people were not discouraged, they trooped out en masse to vote, not because the President had called on them not to be afraid but because of the people’s own enthusiasm for democracy as well as resilience. Yiaga Africa, in its preliminary assessment put the turn-out figure between 42.5 – 44-8 % – an achievement of the August 15 election. INEC’s official figure is 43%. By 8.30 am 3, 556 of the polling units had opened for voting across the state: young persons – a major dynamic, women, the elderly and physically challenged persons all came out to have their say. They not only voted; they stayed behind to protect their votes Most members of the Middle Class were conspicuously absent. At the polling units were ordinary people, the educated class that is always very vocal was nowhere to be seen, the members hiding in the safety of their homes. This is a trend that must be discouraged.  But there were other issues too. Vote buying was very rampant. Voter inducement was common. Some voters were given as much as N50, 000. Many of them collected money from more than one political party. It was alleged that top security officers also received between N2 m and N5 million in each of the local government areas. Vote buying is an assault on the right of the people to choose freely. The intimidation of voters before or during an election is a major offence that should be taken seriously. There were glitches at some of the polling units. In Ife Central, Ilare IV/PU 016, Akodi Apeejiogo, the thumbprint pad was faulty. In Ilesa East, PU 009, Kajola Junction, the BVAS failed as it did in many other polling units across the state. It could not capture the face of majority of the elderly people. In Atakumosa West, PU: Ifewara II, thugs beat up whoever refused to follow their instructions. In Irewole and Ifelodun, young people at polling units openly consumed alcohol and hard drugs.  In Osogbo, Gulf Unit, ward 5, Boripe Ward, PU 002 and in other places, hoodlums tried to snatch ballot boxes. The IREV worked smoothly from 8.48 -10.00 am but then failed until about 11.50 pm. Three days after, there have been no serious complaints about the conduct of the security agencies. Voting on election day is as important as the institutions that execute the process, and in the just concluded Osun governorship election the various state institutions deserve a pass mark. The security officials for relatively good conduct – which is very unusual, the electorate for their resilience and INEC for its confident organization and high operational standards.

The success that we refer to, should however be a wake-up call and a caution for all the stakeholders. In 2027, INEC would be managing a much larger electoral process: 176,000 polling units in 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. The scale of its responsibility will be different. It may not be possible to deploy up to 30, 000 ad hoc staff in every state. It may also not be so easy to handle the kind of emergency that came up in Osun when the Social Democratic Party (SDP) had to be added to the ballot paper at the last minute. There will be little scope for excuses about technical glitches. In 2027, IREV and BVAS must work, thumbprint pads must be available, INEC’s BVAS should not discriminate against the elderly by failing to recognize their faces. There will be more than 14 political parties in the 2027 elections chasing different positions, and the terrain will be diverse. INEC has a lot more to do to upgrade its standards.

By the morning of Sunday, August 16, the INEC returning officer in the election, Professor Joshua Ogunwole had announced the winner in what turned out to be a three-horse race. Senator Ademola Jackson Adeleke, the incumbent Governor was declared winner with 511, 067 votes. He won in 19 LGAs. Second was Bola Oyebamiji of the APC with 444, 815 votes. He led in 11 LGAs while Dr. Najeem Salaam of the ADC got 17, 180 votes.  On the whole, Adeleke won with a margin of 66, 252 votes, a better performance than he recorded in the 2022 election when he defeated former Governor Gboyega Oyetola. Since the announcement, there has been dancing in the streets of Osun. What has been demonstrated in Osun is that whereas political parties are important, a strong politician with grassroots appeal like Ademola Adeleke can gain the electorate. Adeleke was locked in a David vs. Goliath battle. He took on the Nigerian Leviathan, the APC whose members threw everything at him. When he sought to pitch his tent with the APC much earlier in the journey and leave the PDP when that party imploded, he was rejected by the likes of Minister Oyetola. A big mistake apparently. Adeleke then joined the little-known Accord Party which he built into a major force in Osun State. Days to the election, a man associated with the Accord Party who has now been dismissed as an impersonator rejected Adeleke and chose the APC candidate. It didn’t matter. More than a year earlier, March 26, 2025, the Federal Government withheld statutory local government funds to Osun State, following a dispute over local government chairmen elections between the state government and the Abuja-backed opposition APC.

On August 5, 2026, barely 10 days to the Governorship election, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) placed a Post-No-Debt restriction on the main account belonging to the Osun State Government. The President had to intervene personally to direct that the freeze be lifted. By then, the popular opinion was that Adeleke did not stand a chance. Some people even said that Tinubu could not afford to lose Osun state, because that is his ancestral home state, traceable to his roots in Iragbiji. Before August 15, a total of 22 APC Governors and Federal Lawmakers descended on Osun State to hold a mega rally. The Edo State Governor Monday Okpebholo and Imo State Governor Senator Hope Uzodinmma and their henchmen launched an aggressive campaign against Adeleke. The former in a colourful jab condemned Adeleke for his tendency to dance at every occasion. Akpako’s chorus men said he had arrived to drive him, Adeleke, out of Osun Government House. But in the end, the Governor lived up to the true meaning of his name. Adeleke means: “the one who arrives and triumphs” or the “crown triumphs”. By Sunday morning when Adeleke was declared winner, and Goliath had been slain, it was observed that the Akpako of Edo State quietly sneaked out of town Nicodemously, in the dead of the night. Adeleke has since resumed his dancing, which he says does not stop him and has never stopped him from being a people-oriented, productive Governor. 

Nigerians love the underdog. Adeleke won by a wider margin than previously because he had the people behind him. Even if anybody wanted to rig in Osun, it would have been impossible to do so. The people’s vigilance is the strongest safeguard for democracy. Adeleke also had the support of his family, a formidable political establishment in Osun State, starting from Adeleke’s late father, Senator Raji Adeleke, who was a Senator in the Second Republic, to his late brother, former Osun Governor, Senator Isiaka Adeleke (Serubawon) to his elder brother, the multibillionaire, Dr. Deji Adeleke, and his nephew, the international artiste, Davido. He was also helped by the failed strategy of the Osun APC. There were also other politicians in Osun who did not want the APC to win. Senator Iyiola Omisore, who was denied the APC 2026 Governorship ticket, did not do much to help his own party’s candidate, making it easier for Adeleke to win the Ife axis, his political stronghold. Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, former Governor and Minister, is the leader of the ADC in Osun State and National Secretary General of the ADC. His party’s candidate got a mere 17, 108 votes. He could have done much better, but Aregbesola was probably more interested in making sure neither Tinubu nor Oyetola got a foothold in Osun state for the next four years. He is pragmatic enough to know that if his bitter political rivals were to win, he would be driven out of the state into exile! Adeleke was also helped by the Town Hall Meeting organized by the Arise News channel, on the Tuesday before the election tagged “The Battle for Osun.” Out of all the five governorship candidates that participated, Accord Party, AAC, PRP, APC and ADC, he stood out the most. He put up a performance and exhibited such confidence and eloquence that most people never thought he was capable of. He had grown considerably since 2022 when he was elected for his first term. He also had the support of the traditional rulers in Osun, notably the Ataoja of Osogbo, the Ooni of Ife, the Timi of Ede, and the Ogiyan of Ejigbo.

Governor Adeleke has received congratulatory messages from all and sundry with the notable exception of his main challenger, the APC candidate, Bola Oyebamiji. Even President Bola Ahmed Tinubu was among the first persons to congratulate him in a mature spirit of sportsmanship. President Olusegun Obasanjo visited on the day of the victory and danced along with the winner. But APC Osun is threatening to go to the Election Petitions Tribunal after reviewing the Osun election results. The proverbial Federal Might that could not be imposed on August 15 should not be smuggled in through the legal process. Members of the Osun APC would do better to listen to one of their chieftains, Alhaja Falilat Yusuf, popularly known as Ero-Arike, who has told her own colleagues that an election is meant to be won and lost and there are uncertainties in politics – the harsh reality of the game. Meanwhile, Adeleke is waving the olive flag. He wants to work with everyone to move Osun state forward and secure the victory of President Tinubu in 2027, whom he says deserves a second term because he is a Yoruba man and “a son of Osun state.”   Let there be peace and progress in Osun.