Of Kwara State’s Next Guber Ticket –My Take

By Oloriewe Raheem Adedoyin

For Kwara and possibly a few other Nigerian states, the 2027 election has many implications. In the All Progressives Congress (APC), we are looking to consolidate the gains of the last few years after the bloodless Otoge revolution. I was a part of the Otoge Movement that consummated the revolution. In-fact,  I hosted at my residence, in Ilorin, the crucial  meeting that produced Hon. Bashir Omolaja Bo-larinwa  ( BOB), Ph.D, as APC State Chairman.

Claims that nothing has been achieved are typical political rhetoric; the administration of Governor Ab-dulRahman AbdulRazaq has few peers in the history of this state, and I say this with the benefit of ex-perience as a former commissioner and senior citizen.

In building on these achievements, however, we should do more than merely win another election. Through the 2027 poll, we should further strengthen the fabric of our society and leave to the next generation a state that is not only competitive in development indices but also more equitable, fair, and sustainably peaceful. History teaches that success without social justice amounts to little.

As a journalist, statesman, and party stakeholder, I believe I am qualified to speak on the current de-bate about where the next Governor should come from. My position has consistently been that Kwara North should produce the next Governor. I believe going South or Central is less strategic for the ruling party for several reasons.

First, it would show insufficient appreciation for a region that has remained loyal to the party since 2019. Consistently, Kwara North has delivered bloc votes for the APC. For instance, of the votes polled by Governor AbdulRazaq in 2019, 31.8% of the APC votes came from Kwara North. In 2023, the Gov-ernor/APC again secured 34.3% of its victory figures from the region, even when the main opposition party picked its gubernatorial flag bearer from there. The same pattern was evident in the presidential elections of both cycles.

Neither Kwara Central nor South has much to prove again in gubernatorial politics. By 2027, Central would have governed the state for 20 years, while South occupied the seat between 2011 and 2019 — eight years. Kwara North has had no opportunity.

Quite frankly, I am concerned by narratives that Kwara North lacks the numbers or competent candi-dates. Such claims are weak and unverified in light of available electoral data. More importantly, they risk turning one leg of the state’s tripod into a permanent political underclass. That is not how harmoni-ous societies are built. As the Yoruba say, ajoje odun b’enikan oni — we should avoid monopolies that breed bitterness.

Second, picking our candidate outside Kwara North could create the impression that our leaders have scant regard for social justice. No society thrives that way, and we must tread carefully. Third, we risk alienating the entire region. That, in my view, could hand the opposition a near-irreversible advantage in the next election. As a party administrator and strategist, I do not agree that retaining the ticket in the North is a bad strategy. Nothing concrete supports that conclusion.

Matter-of-factly, I do not dispute claims that Kwara Central has the largest voting strength today. How-ever, a closer analysis reveals that these votes do not belong to ethnic Ilorin alone. Ilorin is the most ur-banised part of Kwara, owing to its status as the capital and to population inflows driven partly by inse-curity in other parts of the country, including the hinterlands of Kwara itself.

This is not an indictment of anyone; it is a social reality across Nigeria. For instance, much of Ilorin South’s population is not made up solely of indigenous Ilorin people. Many densely populated areas are inhabited by Kwarans from the South, North, and non-Kwarans. The same is true of parts of Ilorin West, the state’s most populous local government, and to some extent Ilorin East. Any assessment of Ilorin’s voting strength must, therefore, account for these demographic realities while acknowledging the admirable tradition of Ilorin people investing in and building their community.

This demographic mix differs from what obtains in Kwara North and, to a lesser extent, Kwara South. I say “to a lesser extent” because the most ethnically contiguous region in Kwara is the North, dominated by the Baruba/Bokobaru and Nupe peoples. That may be connected to their longstanding focus on agri-culture and related vocations.

Finally, the region with the greatest thirst for the Office of Governor is Kwara North. I believe it will de-liver maximally for the APC as the ticket has been ceded to the region. Taking it away could trigger an-ger and protest votes. Do we really want such a shift from our most dependable region?

Some may ask whom I personally prefer.  That is a moot point at this stage. I may have had other choic-es. But primaries have been held, as elsewhere in the country, and winners have emerged in line with APC guidelines. The primaries in Kwara are no less credible than those conducted in Lagos or else-where. Claims that no primaries took place are merely attempts to discredit candidate Salihu Yakubu Danladi and others. This does not help our party, the President, or the Governor. The Speaker, though young, is as competent as any aspirant and has led the House successfully for seven years.

Rather than campaigning to reverse the outcome of the primaries, I urge party leaders to bury the hatchet, embrace genuine reconciliation, seek fair accommodation, and work for victory once again. I believe the candidate himself recognises this necessity and has already begun reconciliation efforts. As I told him when he visited me shortly after his emergence as our flagbearer, he must continue engaging those who wish to hear from him. The Governor and the party leadership at the highest levels must seek to cool tempers.  Further alteration of the current arrangement will only deepen divisions and re-duce our chances of success. I do not believe that is the intention of the protesting leaders, and I there-fore plead that we let sleeping dogs lie.

If we fail to speak up for what is fair and just, providence may not give us another opportunity to re-deem ourselves. Our children may someday ask what role we played in building a better society. For equity, cohesion, and long-term stability, Kwara North deserves a shot at Ahmadu Bello House now. There can hardly be a more auspicious time. I wish our party the very best.

•Oloriewe Raheem Adedoyin is former Commissioner for Information in Kwara State