Banditry, Empty Farms and Looming Food Shock

With farmers fleeing attacks, fears are growing over food shortages and rising living costs, writes Festus Akanbi

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hat should ordinarily be Nigeria’s season of hope is rapidly turning into a season of fear. Across vast farming belts stretching from Benue and Niger to Oyo, Ondo, and Ekiti, the sound of cutlasses and tractors is gradually being replaced by gunshots, kidnappings, and hurried migration from villages once known for agricultural abundance.

Nigeria’s deepening insecurity crisis is no longer merely a humanitarian tragedy; it is fast becoming one of the gravest threats to national food security, economic stability, and social cohesion in decades.

The warning signs are already visible. According to data from Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), food inflation stood above 40 per cent for much of 2024 before moderating slightly in recent months, remaining one of the strongest drivers of the country’s cost-of-living crisis. Yet analysts fear the worst may still lie ahead because the current danger is not driven merely by exchange rate pressures or fuel costs, but by the physical abandonment of farms themselves.

The scale of violence devastating Nigeria’s agricultural communities has become staggering. Since the Boko Haram insurgency erupted in 2009, over 35,000 people are estimated to have been killed in the North-east, while millions have been displaced. Beyond insurgency, armed banditry and farmer-herder conflicts have widened the theatre of violence across Zamfara, Kaduna, Katsina, Niger, Plateau and Benue states.

According to data from SBM Intelligence and other conflict trackers, thousands of Nigerians are kidnapped yearly, with rural dwellers and farmers forming a significant proportion of victims.

The economic losses are equally devastating. A report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) estimated that insurgency in the North-east alone had cost Nigeria over $100 billion in destroyed infrastructure, lost productivity, and humanitarian damages over the years.

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group had earlier warned that insecurity was costing Nigeria billions of naira annually due to disrupted agricultural activities, reduced investment, and declining rural productivity.

What now alarms economists and security experts is the dangerous southward spread of these threats. Traditionally, the South-west was regarded as relatively insulated from the insurgency ravaging northern Nigeria. That perception is fading rapidly. Recent attacks and growing fears in parts of Oyo, Ondo, Ogun, Ekiti, and Kwara have unsettled farming communities and triggered widespread anxiety among rural populations.

The implications are enormous because the South-west remains one of Nigeria’s most strategic agricultural and commercial zones. The region is a major producer of cassava, cocoa, maize, yams, rice, oil palm, and plantain.

Ondo alone contributes significantly to Nigeria’s cocoa output, while Oyo and Ogun remain critical food baskets supplying urban markets across Lagos and neighbouring states.

Yet many farmers are now retreating from distant farmland into safer, less productive areas near towns and villages. Others have stopped farming altogether.

 In parts of Benue, long regarded as the “Food Basket of the Nation,” entire communities have reportedly been deserted after repeated attacks by armed groups. Similar fears are emerging in parts of Niger and Kogi states, where transporters increasingly avoid certain routes unless security escorts are provided.

The consequences for food prices are already becoming severe. In several northern and central markets, the prices of beans, rice, yams, and maize have surged over the past two years. Traders cite insecurity, transport risks, and reduced harvests as major causes. In some communities, transport operators now impose “risk charges” before entering volatile rural corridors.

The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has repeatedly warned that conflict remains one of the biggest threats to agricultural productivity in sub-Saharan Africa. Nigeria now appears trapped within that dangerous cycle where insecurity reduces food production, food shortages fuel inflation, inflation worsens poverty, and poverty in turn creates fertile ground for criminal recruitment and social instability.

Agriculture still contributes roughly 22 to 25 per cent of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product and employs more than one-third of the labour force. The sector, therefore, represents far more than food production alone; it is the economic lifeline of millions of rural households. Any prolonged disruption to farming activities inevitably leads to lower incomes, rising unemployment, and weaker national growth.

Even more worrying is the long-term structural damage insecurity may inflict on Nigeria’s agricultural future. Young people who witness killings and kidnappings in farming communities are increasingly abandoning agriculture altogether.

Rural-to-urban migration is accelerating as families relocate to cities perceived to be safer. Unfortunately, urban centres already struggling with unemployment, inflation, and infrastructure pressure can scarcely absorb fresh waves of displaced populations.

Analysts also fear growing insecurity could discourage both local and foreign agricultural investments. Large-scale mechanised farming requires long-term confidence, stable logistics, and predictable security conditions. No serious investor commits billions into farmlands where workers risk abduction or death. This reality threatens federal government efforts to diversify the economy away from dependence on crude oil.

The wider implications for the Nigerian economy are profound. Lagos alone reportedly contributes between 22 and 30 per cent of Nigeria’s GDP and accounts for over 80 per cent of Nigeria’s external trade flows. Sustained instability across the South-west corridor could therefore disrupt not only food supply chains but also broader commercial activities linking ports, markets, and manufacturing hubs.

Unfortunately, many stakeholders believe Nigeria’s security response remains largely reactive instead of preventive. Security operations often intensify only after deadly attacks have occurred. Rural communities frequently complain about delayed responses, inadequate policing, and poor intelligence gathering.

There is also growing frustration over the continued weakness of forest surveillance across vast ungoverned spaces now exploited by criminal gangs and insurgent networks.

In the South-west, pressure is mounting on governors to strengthen Amotekun, improve inter-state intelligence sharing, and support community-based security initiatives.

However, critics argue that local security outfits remain underfunded relative to the scale of the threat confronting them.

Beyond kinetic responses, experts insist that Nigeria must address the socio-economic roots of insecurity. Widespread youth unemployment, rural poverty, porous borders, and weak governance structures continue to fuel criminality.

Security cannot be sustained merely through military deployments without parallel investments in education, jobs, rural infrastructure, and social welfare.

Experts said the government must also urgently prioritize protecting farming communities during the planting and harvest seasons. Safe farming corridors, enhanced aerial surveillance, rapid-response units, and stronger collaboration between federal and state authorities have become critical.

Equally important is the need for justice and accountability. Communities repeatedly attacked without consequences for perpetrators gradually lose faith in the state itself.

Nigeria stands today at a dangerous crossroads. Empty farms during the rainy season may ultimately leave markets empty months later. A nation already battling inflation, poverty, and weak purchasing power cannot afford another major food supply shock. The current crisis is therefore not merely about insecurity in remote villages; it is about the future stability of Africa’s largest economy.

Unless decisive action is taken quickly, Nigeria may soon discover that the most dangerous harvest from insecurity is not only death in rural communities, but hunger across the entire nation.