Private Sector Credit Hits Record N94.6tn as Government Borrowing Climbs to N39.4tn

Nume Ekeghe

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has confirmed that private sector credit has risen to N94.6 trillion, while government borrowing has risen to N39.4 trillion.

CBN also indicated that monetary data points to a synchronised expansion in system-wide credit, with February 2026 figures showing a dual acceleration in claims on the private sector and government, suggesting a broad-based balance sheet expansion rather than the traditional crowding-out dynamic.

Credit to the private sector (CPS) rose to an all-time high of N94.61 trillion in February 2026, from N93.74 trillion in January, extending the sharp re-pricing and volume expansion seen at the start of the year. In parallel, net claims on government increased to N39.36 trillion, up from N37.87 trillion in January, reinforcing continued sovereign absorption of banking system liquidity.

All these were contained in the Money and Credit data posted on CBN website, which also showed that on a 12-month basis, the acceleration is discernible.

CPS has expanded by N18.35 trillion, from N76.26 trillion in February 2025, while credit to government has risen by N12.25 trillion, from N27.11 trillion over the same period.

This translates to a significantly faster absolute expansion in private sector credit, even as government borrowing remains structurally elevated pointing to a concurrent rather than substitutional credit cycle.

The trajectory of CPS through 2025 underscores the significance of the current surge. Lending began the year at N77.38 trillion in January 2025, rising marginally to N76.26 trillion in February and N75.98 trillion in March, before peaking at N78.07 trillion in April.

However, this early strength proved short-lived. Credit growth softened thereafter, declining to N77.97 trillion in May, N76.13 trillion in June, and N76.72 trillion in July. By August, CPS had fallen to N75.88 trillion and dropped further to N72.53 trillion in September, marking the lowest level of the year.

 A modest recovery followed N74.41 trillion in October and N74.63 trillion in November before closing the year at N75.83 trillion in December, reflecting a broadly range-bound pattern.

The 2025 profile was therefore characterised by tight liquidity conditions, elevated policy rates, and risk aversion, which constrained real credit expansion.

The jump to N93.74 trillion in January 2026 and N94.61 trillion in February represents a clear structural break suggesting improved liquidity conditions, balance sheet reallocation, and stronger demand for credit from corporates, adjusting to cost pressures linked to FX pass-through, energy pricing and supply chain frictions.

 In contrast, credit to government followed a more gradual but persistent upward trajectory, albeit with notable volatility.

It opened 2025 at N25.03 trillion in January, rising to N27.11 trillion in February and N24.59 trillion in March. This was followed by a period of relative stability N23.93 trillion in April, N22.99 trillion in May, and a dip to N21.66 trillion in June, the lowest point of the year.

From there, a steady build-up resumed: N23.69 trillion in July, N22.95 trillion in August, and N24.16 trillion in September. The pace of accumulation accelerated in Q4, with credit rising to N24.79 trillion in October, N26.35 trillion in November, and N34.22 trillion in December, a sharp year-end jump consistency with heightened fiscal financing needs.

The upward trend has extended into 2026, reaching N37.87 trillion in January and N39.36 trillion in February, indicating sustained sovereign demand for bank financing.