When Reform Fatigue Sets In

EDGY OPTIMIST By Obinna Chima

President Bola Tinubu and his Ministers are always quick to trumpet some of the reforms initiated at the beginning of his administration as courageous steps to dismantle long-standing economic inefficiencies, restore macroeconomic stability and fiscal discipline.

They often stress that the administration took the bold step of ending fuel subsidies and multiple foreign exchange rates to reset Nigeria and achieve inclusive growth. They have always told those who care to listen that the reforms are already enabling federal, state, and local governments, through more resources and cash, to better respond to the needs of citizens and have been consistent in assuring Nigerians that the sacrifices demanded by the reforms were designed to yield long-term benefits and that the present administration remains committed to building a more prosperous and equitable nation.

The just-concluded International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring Meetings was not different as government officials once again amplified the gains of the reforms and reassured stakeholders of their long-term benefits.

“Reforms are boosting domestic production and private sector confidence. Nigeria is transitioning from stabilisation to growth acceleration and job creation. Nigeria’s global economic standing is improving, with reforms gaining recognition. I am confident that reforms will drive sustainable growth and reduce poverty,” Wale Edun, who during the week stepped down as the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, had told journalists in Washington, D.C.

But while policymakers continue to project confidence and highlight reform gains, the mood outside government circles tells a different story.

There is a growing mood of reform fatigue across Nigeria today, which the government would do well to read carefully. Reform fatigue comes into effect when citizens who have endured pain in the name of long-term reform gains begin to ask: Where are the results from the sacrifices and belt-tightening measures?

Just like Nigeria, in many countries that have embarked on economic reform, empirical evidence shows that policy fatigue sets in after two years.

For years, Nigeria postponed these difficult decisions, choosing instead to manage distortions rather than confront them. But this government chose to confront them. The country is almost three years into the sweeping reforms, but the populace is getting restive and uncomfortable with the unintended consequences of the policies. The danger of allowing reform fatigue to set in is that policymakers may lose the gains they have already achieved.

Nigerians are already asking for the benefits, as the cost of living has worsened due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Across households and operators of businesses in Nigeria have been stretched financially, emotionally, and psychologically.

Salaries have not kept pace with inflation, while small businesses are struggling to stay afloat amid rising input costs.

Families are making difficult trade-offs between essentials, going for low-cost substitute goods and have embraced ‘sachetised economy,’ as a result of the structural change in consumer behaviour. Some have even argued that the middle class has been eliminated.

The World Bank, in its latest Nigeria Development Update (NDU), while applauding the government for restoring macroeconomic stability, cautioned that macroeconomic stability alone is not sufficient. It stated that human capital development remains a key channel through which macroeconomic gains can translate into improved living standards and jobs, adding that poverty remains high, and the cost of living continues to soar beyond the reach of most Nigerians.

Also worrisome is Nigeria’s rising public debt profile, which has climbed to N159.28 trillion (approximately $110.97 billion) as of December 2025, according to the latest figures released by the Debt Management Office (DMO). This has raised concerns, as Nigerians were assured that subsidy removal would free up resources for infrastructure projects and reduce the government’s reliance on borrowing. It is against this backdrop that former Central Bank of Nigeria Governor and Emir of Kano, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, on Thursday, questioned the federal government’s continued borrowing despite subsidy removal and exchange rate reforms.

“If you’re no longer paying the subsidy and have more revenue, why are we still borrowing? What exactly are we borrowing for?” he asked.

Reform fatigue, however, is not a sign of failure; it is a predictable phase in any major transformation, one that governments around the world have encountered when implementing similar reforms.

“The most notable examples of fatigue syndrome include Britain under Margaret Thatcher, Myanmar, and Moldova in Eastern Europe. Policymakers will most likely offer the citizens palliatives to calm the restiveness of the populace. Also, in some cases, the leaders succumb to political pressure and begin to reverse some of the reforms,” CEO of Financial Derivatives Limited, Bismarck Rewane, had stated.

Reform fatigue intensifies when policy communication is weak or when progress appears abstract. Telling people that macroeconomic fundamentals such as Gross Domestic Product, inflation, external reserves, among others, are improving means little if their daily experience continues to deteriorate. Growth figures, fiscal balances, and investor sentiment matter, but they must eventually translate into jobs, stability, more income for breadwinners and affordable food.

Sustaining public support, therefore, requires more than articulating long-term benefits. It demands delivering incremental, real-world gains that reassure citizens along the way. When people begin to see clear signs of improvement, their willingness to endure short-term hardship strengthens. But where the benefits remain distant or unclear, reform fatigue can set in, eroding trust and weakening the social contract that underpins successful policy transformation.

Therefore, President Tinubu must now match the boldness at which his reforms were initiated with results, as the country gradually enters into another election cycle. Emphasis must now focus on translating reforms into tangible economic outcomes.

Nigerians are eager to feel the benefits of the pain they endured yesterday as evidence that the sacrifices they made are already paving the way for a more prosperous tomorrow.