Political Parties And The 2027 Countdown

REUBEN ABATI

“I am worried, you know?”

“That’s no news. I have always known you to be a professional worrier. Every little thing bothers you. Just be careful. Worrying too much is not good for your heart. It messes up your hormones, and clogs your veins, and your heart suffers for it. Whatever you cannot resolve, whatever does not go as planned, leave it, let it be, big problems have a way of resolving themselves one way or the other. So don’t worry, be happy. Since the days of Adam and man committed the original sin, the heavens have refused to fall.” 

“You should have asked me what is on my mind, instead of you delivering a sermon on the logic of creation. You have this habit of providing answers to questions nobody has asked you. It is not good for your image. There is a way people look at you with this bad habit of always talking to yourself.”

“Okay. Okay. So, what’s up?”

“I have been thinking about the political parties in this 2027 race.”

“There are 21 of them. Most of them are also-rans or at best Special Purpose Vehicles, mere registered shells that others can buy. I am sure you know that you can buy a political party off the shelf in Nigeria. If the price is right, you can get an already registered political party and run with it.”

“That is one of my concerns. The thing that worries me. With the exception of maybe four or five political parties, all the other parties on the ballot do not look like political parties. They have no character. They lack depth. They have no identity. It wasn’t always like that in this country. In the First Republic, people joined political parties because those parties stood for something – an aspiration to gain power and lead the country. Those were the days of Action Group, the Northern People’s Congress, the National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC), the Northern Elements Progressive Union (NEPU), the United Middle Belt Congress (UMBC), the Nigerian National Democratic Party (NNDP), the Niger Delta Congress (NDC), the Dynamic Party (DP), the Midwest Democratic Front (MDF), the Borno Youth Movement (BYM), the Igala Union (IU).  Those parties may have been driven by regional or cultural identity politics, but they were proper parties for mobilizing the people. They had known leaders. Compare what we had then to what the political party system in Nigeria has become.”

“The parties of today also have leaders. Look at the major ones: APC, ADC, PDP, SDP, LP, NNPP”

“Which leaders? Even the parties of the Second Republic stood for something. The United Party of Nigeria (UPN), the National Party of Nigeria (NPN), the Great Nigeria People’s Party (GNPP), the People’s Redemption Party (PRP), the Nigeria Advance Party (NAP), Nigeria People’s Party (NPP). Those parties had leaders and a definite followership. Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Alhaji Shehu Shagari, Alhaji Aminu Kano, Alhaji Waziri Ibrahim, Dr Tunji Braithwaite. In those days in social studies classes, you could ask students, who is the leader of this or that political party. Please, who is the leader of any of today’s political parties?”

“They have Chairmen. And besides, a political party is not supposed to be a one-man show.”

“Which Chairmen? People who are perpetually in the courts fighting for space and influence? And I will not describe the parties of the First and Second Republics as personality cults. They had the kind of solidity, stability and depth that we no longer see around here anymore.”

“The military destroyed Nigerian politics. The moment the military between General Babangida and General Abacha started toying with the idea of a party to the left and a party to the right and what Chief Bola Ige eventually called “the five fingers of a leprous hand”, purposeful, people-centered politics in Nigeria was finished. The military monetized and bastardized Nigerian politics. Having been forced out of power against their will, the soldiers dropped their khaki uniform and changed into civilian garbs, to further demolish whatever was left of the moral centre of Nigerian politics.”

“We can’t always blame the military for everything, you know.”

“But you are aware that as of today, nobody can become President of Nigeria, or any person of political substance without going to pay homage to the retired military Heads of State?”

“I still think we should not blame those former military leaders. The people you have in mind are mostly old people. You can’t keep blaming them for the poor quality of their successors in the public space. In their time, the military had a sense of nationhood. They helped to lay a strong foundation despite their shortcomings. Compare and contrast them with these politicians who seem to get worse with every season. What we have is an emergent leadership cadre that is interested in power to steal, plunder and suppress the people. It is because of this greed and selfishness that the Nigerian politician of today gravitates towards the party in power, it is why as the general election of 2027 approaches, every politician is jumping on the Tinubu, City Boys and Renewed Hope bandwagon.”

“It is the ruling party that is not allowing the opposition to thrive. And we need the opposition, so we can have alternative views.”

“Yes. But the opposition must be credible, strong, organized and reliable. I don’t see any opposition party that meets that requirement. What I see are personalities pursuing their own selfish interests, in their own corners, without any interest in the people. And the political parties that you mentioned, can you tell me what they stand for? What they hope to do.”

“I understand they are all working on their manifestoes. When they get to that bridge, they will cross it.”

“Is that how it is done in other countries? In the UK, India, the United States, Canada, South Africa, the voters know what the political parties stand for. They don’t have to wait till the electoral umpire releases election time table, before they start working on manifestoes”

“But is it not a good thing that we even have something that looks like opposition parties in Nigeria? Or that we have some individuals who are resolute not to join the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC). We have to give those people some credit. We should salute their courage. They may end up as the heroes of this 2027 electoral process: Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rotimi Amaechi, Kwankwaso, David Mark, Dino Melaye, Kabiru Turaki, SAN, Pat Utomi, Seyi Makinde, Senator Aminu Tambuwal, Chief John Oyegun, Ogbeni Raufu Aregbesola, Abubakar Malami SAN, Nasir el-Rufai, Omoyele Sowore, Solomon Dalung.”

“Heroes? How do they become heroes when most of the people you have mentioned don’t even have a platform? The African Democratic Congress is a party in disarray. They have a crisis of internal democracy. The party is divided into about four factions, with each faction claiming authority. Even the zonal Chairmen of the party are in court against the David Mark-led faction on the issue of legitimacy and constitutional authority. The party is hobbled by an on-going argument over the exact meaning of status quo ante bellum and a Court of Appeal judgment. The party itself is in limbo. Its leadership and factions and programmes are not recognized by INEC.” 

“As for INEC, those same people in the ADC have succeeded in telling the whole world that the INEC led by Professor Joash Amupitan is biased, and that its integrity is doubtful. Whatever the outcome of the 2027 general elections, that is what they will keep saying. And they will continue to insist that the ruling party is committed to the re-election of President Tinubu, a one-party state, and the rule of one man. “

“That does not mean that anyone believes them. They have to survive the hurdle of the cases they have in court first. The same with the Labour Party,NNPP and the PDP”

“They are already saying that the courts are in the pockets of the ruling party.”

“They should be careful how they say that.  They could be charged for contempt.”

“But they are not alone. Even some members of the warring factions in the PDP whose matter will be determined by the Supreme Court today are insinuating that the Supreme Court may not be trustworthy. The party is even almost completely deserted.”

“Which of the factions: the Turaki faction or the Wike faction? I think it is unfortunate that the political parties are all busy in the courts with one pre-election matter or the other. It is a clear indication of what will happen after the elections. In 2027, we may witness the largest number of litigations.”

“That is if the elections take place at all. Sometimes I have my worries too. It looks like some politicians are determined to cause chaos with anything possible to discredit the state.”

“And you think the government in power will fold its arms and look like Mr. Lookman? The worst that will happen is that many of these politicians will go and join Nasir el-Rufai in detention. You heard the President saying “I am not scared. I will do what I have to do over and over and over again.” 

“I think he is actually scared. When a President who is the most powerful man in the country, 32 Governors with him, and a comfortable majority in the National Assembly says he is not scared, then he is. That is my opinion. It is not even as if his own party, the APC, is a model for any other party. They have issues in that party too.”

“The APC Chairman, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda and the National Secretary, Senator Ajibola Bashiru just had a media chat in which they said that their party is the best in terms of internal democracy, and that it is the opposition parties that need to go and put their houses in order.”

“I tell you. The APC has issues too. And the big issue is this thing they call consensus politics for the selection of candidates. It is causing serious problems in Ogun, Oyo, Abia, Nasarawa, Lagos, Delta, Bauchi, Rivers, Ondo and Benue. What the APC is doing is not consensus. Some people just take a decision, get the President’s approval and you become the candidate. Many party members are aggrieved.” 

“I am not aware of anyone complaining publicly. Consensus is legal. Section 84 of the Electoral Act.”

“You don’t have to be aware. But I know what I am saying. Take Ogun State where all the key positions have been assigned, it was reported yesterday that Senator Gbenga Daniel went to attend a caucus meeting of the Ogun North East Senatorial District which he represents in the National Assembly only to be turned back! He was openly rejected by the organizers of the caucus, and yet he is seeking re-election. Apparently, they have used consensus formula to push him out of contention. He is threatening to go to court.”

“The courts are there to dispense justice.”

“This same APC, and I hope you are not being partisan with that comment, is also having issues in Nasarawa State.   Some key stakeholders in that state are protesting that the Governor is trying to impose a so-called consensus candidate on the state, that is Senator Ahmed Wadada, without consulting others in the party including former Governors and prominent personalities such as Senator Umaru Al-Makura, Senator Abdullahi Adamu and former Inspector General of Police Mohammed Adamu. An incumbent Governor Sule handpicking a successor and calling that a consensus is wrong. It is an imposition. The stakeholders are calling for a direct primary.”

“I am tempted to agree with you. The biggest problem that the APC is likely to face may be from within the party itself, not from outside.”

The party may soon also end up in the courts.  Or later face the Zamfara situation of 2023”

“Apparently, there is a lot of drama ahead. It is just about to begin. My only hope is that the politicians will at some point realize that the democratic process is not about their selfish interests, but about the people who must be allowed to make their own informed choices and vote freely.”

“The only hope I see on display is Renewed Hope, with the people as pawns.”

“By the way, did you watch the Arsenal vs Man City match? What do you think of the state of play in the Premier League?”

“I am not a fan of Mikel Arteta’s “nearly men”, please. They have lost the chance to win two Cups already. If they mess up in the Premier League and the Champions League as well, nobody will be surprised.”

“But just in case you have a friend who is for Arsenal, please always check on the person in the spirit of good neighbourliness. I don’t understand how a team with a lead of nine points atop the EPL, leading for 201 days, will just lose 4 games in a row, and now they are under pressure from Man City that is 3 points behind, breathing down their neck. How do they hope to regain momentum, now that history is about to repeat itself?”

“It is football. Anything can happen. Arsenal has five EPL matches to go. Manchester City has six. It is not over until it is over. It is the same in politics.”

“No. Not quite. In Nigerian politics, there is some certainty. Those who are going to lose in the 2027 general elections already know themselves, except they are pretending.”