Oil Tumbles to $92 after Trump Announces Two-week Ceasefire

• Ojulari: Integrated pipeline security raised Nigeria’s crude output by 77% in 3 years  

•Exxon signals $2.9bn Q1 upstream earnings on oil price rise

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

Oil tumbled to $92 a barrel yesterday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, subject to an immediate and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Nigeria’s benchmark, Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, tumbled 15.5 per cent to $92.28 a barrel, down nearly $17. It was on track for its biggest daily drop since April 2020, the start of the Covid pandemic, when the price fell 24 per cent.

However, hours later, it rose slightly after losing $14.83, or 13.57 per cent, at $94.44 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures slumped $17.92, or 15.87 per cent, to $95.03. Prices had touched $120 per barrel at the height of the crisis.

Besides, European benchmark natural gas prices tumbled 20 per cent at opening in Amsterdam after the U.S ceasefire that could lead to reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

No LNG cargo has transited the Strait of Hormuz in over a month, as two vessels carrying Qatari LNG were forced to abandon an attempt to exit the route in what would have been the first export of Qatari LNG since the war began.

Despite the evident market relief with commodities prices slumping and equities rallying after the ceasefire announcement, the physical supply tightness in the LNG market is set to continue.

This came as the Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC, Bayo Ojulari, stated yesterday that as a result of the establishment of an integrated energy security for pipelines in the Niger Delta, output grew from 960,000 barrels per day in 2022 to an average of 1.71 million bpd and a peak production of 1.84 million bpd in 2025,

But shipping sources said the Iranian navy threatened ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without Tehran’s permission with destruction on Wednesday and that transit through the waterway remained shut.

Iran had said it would halt its attacks if strikes against it stopped and that safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz would be possible for two weeks in coordination with Iranian armed forces, according to a statement by Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.

Iran could open the strait in a limited and controlled way on Thursday or Friday ahead of a meeting between U.S. and Iranian officials in Pakistan, a senior Iranian official involved in the talks told Reuters on Wednesday.

Shippers were still seeking clarity on the logistics, while refiners inquired about new crude loadings, in response to the ceasefire deal.

Trump said the U.S. had received a 10-point proposal from Iran, which he called a workable basis to negotiate, and that the parties were a long way towards reaching a definitive agreement for long-term peace.

Also yesterday, NNPC confirmed that national crude oil production had grown from a historic low of 960,000 barrels per day in 2022 to an average of 1.71 million barrels per day and a peak production of 1.84 million barrels per day in 2025, owing to the establishment of the integrated energy security for pipelines in the Niger Delta. 

Group Chief Executive Officer,  Ojulari, a statement from the national oil company said, made the disclosure at the Parliamentary Roundtable on the State of Pipelines Security which was held at the National Assembly, in Abuja.

Speaking on the success of the security arrangement, Ojulari explained that it was not accidental, and that it involved an “integrated energy security model that combines legislative and executive policy alignment, actionable intelligence, kinetic deployment capabilities, regulatory oversight, industry cooperation, and community embedded surveillance mechanisms”.

He said the resurgence of production due to the effective tackling of the twin menace of oil theft and pervasive pipeline sabotage has led to the restoration of investors’ confidence in the nation’s oil and gas sector. 

In his welcome address, the President of the Senate, Sen. Godswill Akpabio, represented by Senator Jimoh Ibrahim, called for collaboration among agencies and stakeholders in resolving all challenges impeding production growth. 

On his part, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, who was represented by the Leader of the House, Prof. Julius Ihonvbere, urged the forum to evaluate the progress made so far with a view to ensuring fairness and equity. 

The Parliamentary Roundtable on the State of Pipelines Security was convened by the Joint Senate and House of Representatives Committee on Petroleum Resources. It had in attendance the Senate President, Speaker of the House of Representatives, National Security Adviser, Minister of Defence, and representatives of oil industry regulatory agencies.

The roundtable also featured presentations by the Chief of Defence Staff, Inspector General of Police, Director General of the Department of State Services, Commandant General of the Nigerian Security and Civil Defense Corps, and private security companies.

Meanwhile, higher oil and gas prices due to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran could boost Exxon Mobil’s first-quarter upstream earnings by up to $2.9 billion, outweighing the impact of disruptions to some of its oil and gas production in the Middle East, the U.S. oil producer said on Wednesday.

Downstream earnings, however, could see a hit of about $5.3 billion in part because of timing effects, though Exxon said in a regulatory filing it will see a lift in earnings in later quarters when oil and gas shipments are delivered.

The conflict that began on February 28 sent oil prices skyrocketing as much as 65 per cent, with some oil and gas fields in the Middle East shutting in production after the Strait of Hormuz – a conduit for a fifth of global energy flows – was effectively closed.

Benchmark Brent crude prices averaged $78.38 per barrel during the first quarter, up 24 per cent from the previous three months, according to LSEG data.

Exxon said its first-quarter oil and gas production will be 6 per cent lower due to the war compared with the fourth quarter, when it produced 5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Assets in Qatar and the UAE accounted for 20 per cent of Exxon’s global oil production in 2025, the company said in the filing.

Exxon will report its full first-quarter results on May 1. Investors closely watch the company’s earnings snapshot, which details the market factors that impacted earnings, for signals about how the broader oil sector will perform when results are released next month, a Reuters report stated.