Iran War Triggers Petrol Demand Surge for Dangote Refinery Across Africa

•Nigeria would have been at standstill now without the refinery, says Aliko Dangote

•Raises petrol price to N1,245 per litre

•          Trump: US considering ‘winding down’ Middle East military operation

•          Calls NATO ‘cowards’ over lack of support

•          UK agrees to Let US use British bases to strike Iranian sites targeting Strait of Hormuz

Dike Onwuamaeze

The escalating conflict involving Iran, Isreal and the United States driving an unprecedented surge in demand for refined petroleum products across Africa, placing the Dangote Refinery at the centre of a rapidly shifting global energy landscape.

This comes as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery yesterday increased its ex-depot (gantry) price from N1,175 to N1,245 per litre, while the coastal price increased from N1,512,648 to N1,606,518 per metric tonne. The company cited the rising global geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil costs as the driving factors. The new pricing takes effect from midnight on March 21, 2026.

Also yesterday, President Donald Trump said the United States was “very close” to achieving its objectives in the war against Iran and signalled a potential winding down of military operations, while urging other nations to take responsibility for securing the Strait of Hormuz.

The US President also assailed NATO allies, over their lack of support for the war, calling members of the group “cowards.”

Equally, yesterday, the British government gave authorisation for the US to use military bases in Britain to carry out strikes on Iranian missile sites that are attacking ⁠ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

However, describing the unfolding global geo-political situation in an interview with The Economist, President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, said, “It’s a crazy situation right now,” as crude oil prices spiked to nearly $120 per barrel, following developments in the Gulf.

He added, “And I think it will continue for a while,” signalling expectations of prolonged volatility in global energy markets.

The refinery, located on the outskirts of Lagos, is Africa’s largest, with a processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. As supply chains tighten due to geopolitical disruptions, demand from across the continent has surged dramatically.

“People are ready to pay anything now,” Dangote revealed, underscoring the intensity of competition for available fuel supplies.”

Beyond the immediate market pressures, Dangote positioned the refinery as a strategic asset for Africa’s long-term economic independence.

“If we Africans don’t lead in the industrialisation of Africa, Africa will never industrialise,” he said, highlighting the need for homegrown investment in critical infrastructure.

The facility is already having a measurable macroeconomic impact.

According to Dangote, “Nigeria would have been at a standstill now without the refinery,” pointing to its role in reducing the country’s reliance on imported petroleum products and easing pressure on foreign exchange reserves.

Built on a massive industrial complex featuring extensive storage capacity and dedicated port infrastructure, the refinery represents one of the most ambitious private-sector investments on the continent.

Dangote himself emphasised its scale, noting: “Actually we are building a runway there. Nobody believes something like this exists in Africa. We can fly in people to come and have a look.”

The refinery’s importance has been further amplified by disruptions to global trade routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, a key channel for energy and fertiliser shipments. This has elevated Dangote’s position as a critical supplier not only of fuel but also of petrochemicals and fertiliser inputs across Africa.

Looking ahead, Dangote signalled even broader ambitions, including plans to expand refining capacity and list part of the business on the capital market.

He also stressed the urgency of African-led investment, warning: “We know that if we don’t invest, there’s nobody that will come and invest in our continent.”

At the same time, he expressed scepticism about the ability of other African economies to replicate such large-scale industrial projects.

“I can’t see any African country today building a refinery, and if they tried, I wish them best of luck,” he said. “Africans generally might not have this kind of capital. Even when they have, they don’t want to invest. They are scared about investing. We are not.”

Despite criticisms about reliance on foreign technical expertise, Dangote defended his operations, insisting: “We are very, very innovative,” pointing to advanced automation in both refining and cement production.

Dangote wants to list a portion of the refinery on the Nigerian Exchange Limited and perhaps on the London Stock Exchange, and over the next three years expand capacity to almost half as much as all of Saudi Arabia’s facilities combined. He also wants to use the gas produced at the complex to provide power for manufacturers that could set up nearby.

The Dangote Group, which already operates in 16 other African countries, has plans beyond Nigeria. Last year it announced a $2.5 billion joint venture with Ethiopia to build a fertiliser plant of similar size to that in Nigeria. Dangote said he will invest another $1bn in cement and power projects in Zimbabwe.

He lists other ideas: potash and phosphate mining, copper processing in Zambia, cocoa processing in Ghana and Ivory Coast, and a petroleum pipeline from Namibia to central Africa.

Most of the refinery’s managers are Indians. The cement business has a longstanding relationship with Sinoma, a large Chinese company. Mr Dangote brushes these criticisms away.

Trump Says US Considering ‘Winding Down’ Middle East Military Operation

President Donald Trump yesterday said the United States was “very close” to achieving its objectives in the war against Iran and signalled a potential winding down of military operations, while urging other nations to take responsibility for securing the Strait of Hormuz.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump outlined what he described as major military gains against Iran.

“We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran,” he wrote.

He listed a series of achievements, including dismantling Iran’s military capabilities.

“Completely degrading Iranian missile capability destroying Iran’s defense industrial base eliminating their Navy and Air Force,” Trump said, adding that the U.S. would ensure Iran never comes close to developing nuclear weapons.

Trump also said Washington had secured its regional allies.

“Protecting, at the highest level, our Middle Eastern allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and others,” he wrote.

A key part of Trump’s message was a call for countries reliant on the Strait of Hormuz to take over its security, signalling a shift in U.S. strategy.

“The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not!” he said.

He added that while the U.S. could assist, it should not be necessary. “If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated.”

The remarks suggest Washington may be preparing to scale back its direct military role after weeks of intense operations, even as tensions in the region remain high and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to face disruption.

The waterway is a critical global energy route, carrying a significant share of the world’s oil and gas supplies. Trump’s push for other nations to take charge underscores a broader effort to shift the burden of security to countries that rely most heavily on the route.

While the U.S. has not formally announced a withdrawal, Trump’s comments point to a strategy of maintaining strategic dominance while reducing frontline involvement — keeping pressure on Iran while expecting allies and global powers to step in on maritime security.

Meanwhile, Trump yesterday assailed NATO allies over their lack of support for the war against Iran, calling the longtime US allies “cowards.”

“Without the U.S.A., NATO Is A Paper Tiger!” Trump said in a social media post.

The US president complained NATO countries did not want to join the fight against Iran, yet complained about high oil prices.

“Now that fight is Militarily WON, with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don’t want to help open the ⁠Strait of Hormuz, a simple military maneuver that is the single reason for the high oil prices. So easy for them to do, with so little risk,” he wrote.

“Cowards, and we will Remember!”

Germany, Britain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, ⁠Japan and Canada pledged in a joint statement on Thursday to join “appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait.” But German Chancellor Friedrich Merz made clear that ⁠this presupposed an end to combat.

In the meantime, the British government yesterday gave authorisation for the United States to use military bases in Britain to carry out strikes on Iranian missile sites that are attacking ⁠ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

British ministers met to discuss the Iran war and Iran’s blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters quoted a Downing Street statement.

“They confirmed that ⁠the agreement for the U.S. to use UK bases in the collective self-defence of ⁠the region includes U.S. defensive operations to degrade the missile sites ⁠and capabilities being used to attack ships in ⁠the Strait of Hormuz,” the statement said.