Trust at the Heart of Nigeria’s Taxation Challenge

By Ugo Inyama

Trust is the quiet currency that gives taxation its legitimacy. When it is strong, governments raise revenue through cooperation rather than coercion. When it is weak, even well-designed fiscal systems struggle to function.

For many Nigerians, paying tax feels like pouring water into a basket. Budgets expand, yet outcomes remain thin. Ministries multiply while hospitals lack basic equipment. Political office holders grow more comfortable even as citizens are told to tighten their belts. This disconnect has fractured the social contract that underpins any sustainable revenue system. The central challenge confronting Nigeria today is therefore not simply how to raise more money, but how to restore confidence in the purpose and use of public funds.

A State Running on Ambition but Weak Cash Flow

Nigeria’s fiscal condition increasingly resembles a large household with impressive plans but unreliable income. The ambitions are expansive, the obligations numerous, yet inflows rarely match outflows. Each cycle ends with borrowing, improvisation, and deferred maintenance. Over time, even the most carefully drafted plan begins to sag under its own weight.

For decades, oil revenue acted like a generous but unpredictable relative, stepping in during good years and masking deeper structural weaknesses. That cushion has thinned. Global energy transitions, production constraints, and price volatility have stripped oil of its former reliability. What remains exposed is a narrow domestic revenue base supporting a very large and complex economy.

Nigeria’s tax system is a narrow bridge carrying heavy traffic. A small formal sector bears most of the burden, while vast areas of economic activity remain lightly taxed or entirely outside the net. As long as oil money flowed, this imbalance was tolerated. Today, the stress fractures are impossible to ignore.

Reform as Structural Repair, Not Cosmetic Change

The current push for revenue mobilisation should be understood as structural repair rather than cosmetic change. The emphasis has shifted toward broadening the tax base, improving taxpayer identification, reducing leakages, and modernising collection systems, instead of simply raising rates on those already compliant.

Reforms around revenue administration aim to correct long-standing weaknesses: fragmented data, manual processes, discretionary enforcement, and duplication across agencies. These failures turned taxation into negotiation and compliance into a selective burden.

Digitisation promises a shift from opacity to visibility. Better data allows government to see economic activity more clearly and distribute responsibility more fairly. In principle, this is sound. A modern economy cannot function on guesswork and paper trails. But even the strongest fiscal architecture will fail if it rests on a foundation of distrust.

Trust, Waste, and the Confidence Gap

Taxation is ultimately an act of faith. Citizens surrender private income in the expectation that the state will convert it into public value. In Nigeria, that expectation has been eroded by years of perceived waste and weak accountability.

Waste is not limited to corruption. It also appears in bloated governance structures, duplicated agencies, inflated contracts, abandoned projects, and poor maintenance of existing assets. Each convoy, each unfinished road, each white-elephant project quietly signals to taxpayers that their contributions are not scarce enough to be respected.

This perception is corrosive. It turns compliance into resentment and reform into suspicion. When enforcement tightens without visible spending restraint, citizens interpret it as imbalance rather than fairness. Trust, like oil in an engine, reduces friction. Without it, the system grinds noisily and inefficiently.

Rebuilding confidence therefore requires more than new laws. It demands visible changes in behaviour, particularly at the top.

Spending Discipline as the Missing Half of Reform

Revenue mobilisation without expenditure reform is like pouring fuel into a vehicle with a leaking tank. Nigeria’s problem is not only how much it collects, but how convincingly it spends. Citizens are far more likely to accept a broader tax net if they see government tightening its own belt first.

This means fewer symbols of excess, clearer priorities, and stronger procurement discipline. It means finishing projects before announcing new ones, choosing maintenance over endless expansion, and enforcing consequences for waste.

Transparency must also become practical rather than performative. Citizens should be able to trace public money from budget approval to project completion. When outcomes are visible, taxation begins to feel less like loss and more like participation.

Beyond Taxes: Dormant Revenue

A serious revenue strategy must extend beyond taxation. Nigeria underperforms in managing public assets, concessions, and customs operations. Too often, government behaves like a landlord sitting on valuable property while struggling to pay basic bills.

Ports leak revenue, concessions under-deliver, and state-owned enterprises drain resources that could otherwise fund development. Addressing these inefficiencies is politically harder than raising taxes, but economically more rewarding.

Sub-national governments also remain overly dependent on central allocations. Without stronger incentives for internal revenue generation, fiscal federalism produces dependency rather than development.

The Revenue Mobilisation Dilemma

Revenue mobilisation is difficult because it forces a reckoning. It exposes who pays, who does not, who benefits, and who absorbs the cost of inefficiency. It challenges entrenched interests and comfortable arrangements. This is why it is often framed as technical, even though it is deeply political.

The real test of reform will not be new platforms or legislation. It will be whether citizens feel the state is finally meeting them halfway. Do they see restraint where there was excess? Delivery where there were promises? Accountability where there was impunity?

Revenue is the bloodstream of the state, but trust is the heart that pumps it. Without restoring confidence in how public money is used, Nigeria risks perfecting the mechanics of collection while losing the consent that makes taxation sustainable.

*Ugo Inyama writes from African Digital Governance Centre, Manchester, UK
e: Ugo@africandgc.org
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