Nigeria’s Gas is Becoming More Investable, Says Gbite Falade

Bennett Oghifo

When Gbite Falade, chief executive of Aradel Holdings, addressed executives and policymakers at Pitching Nigerian Gas to Global Capital in Lagos—a conference organised by Capitas Partners and Savannah Capital under the License to Energy Series, with support from Good Governance Africa, a Johannesburg-based policy think tank—his message was measured but pointed.

“Our mission is to move the needle forward—to explore how Nigeria could more efficiently produce and monetise its full potential in gas,” he said.
Nigeria holds one of the world’s largest gas endowments, yet for most of its modern energy history, gas has lived in the shadow of oil—flared, underpriced and structurally neglected. What Falade and other participants argued at the conference was that this era may finally be ending—not because Nigeria has more discovered gas, but because the system governing its gas endowments is becoming investable.

From CSR to Market Structure

Falade’s explanation for Nigeria’s long-delayed gas moment began with history.

“Our industry has historically been oil-centric,” he said. “Until the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) came into effect about three years ago, there was no clear commercial framework for gas monetisation.”

Nigeria’s petroleum architecture was built to serve crude oil production, largely for the energy security needs of foreign markets. Gas followed as a by-product—something to be managed, not developed. Where gas gathering projects existed, they were limited and often justified as social obligations rather than businesses.

“Gas suppliers were paid as little as ₦10 per thousand scf—far below cost recovery,” Falade said. “That was not a business. That was national sacrifice.” Some producers continued supplying gas out of national commitment, but the economics discouraged new investment. Over time, this distorted pricing culture hollowed out the sector’s ability to attract capital to develop gas.

The first signs of structure emerged around 2010, when Nigeria introduced a round of gas price legislation that differentiated pricing between power and commercial users. While power tariffs remained deeply subsidised, commercial pricing began to create a foundation for bankable investments. A franchising model for last-mile gas distribution followed. Lagos was allocated to Gaslink, Aba to Shell Nigeria Gas, Ikorodu to Falcon, while Gasland served other industrial centres. These hubs catered primarily to industrial users and were priced commercially.

Yet even this progress stalled. As supply reliability faltered, many industrial customers turned to captive energy solutions.

A significant constraint, Falade argued, was infrastructure. Nigeria relied almost entirely on a single trunk line—the Escravos–Lagos Pipeline System—financed from the balance sheet of an NNPC subsidiary. “That balance sheet was never sufficient to support the massive infrastructure expansion needed nationwide,” he said.

The power-sector drag

The gas-to-power value chain compounded these challenges. As Nigeria rolled out NIPP power plants, the system failed to evolve as an integrated commercial ecosystem. “Power was subsidised. Consumers underpaid. GenCos could not meet their obligations to gas producers,” Falade said. “Consequently, gas suppliers were unwilling to make new investment decisions.” This cycle—weak offtake, unpaid debts and stalled upstream investment—defined Nigeria’s gas sector for years.

PIA- A regulatory break with the past

The Petroleum Industry Act marked a break with that past. “The PIA came as a turning point,” Falade said, introducing clearer frameworks for midstream infrastructure, pricing and regulatory oversight. It brought transparency, stability and predictability—attributes investors price more than optimism. Recent executive directives have reinforced that shift, providing clarity on dollar-denominated transactions, resource classification and fiscal terms, particularly for Production Sharing Contracts and deepwater operations. “This regulatory maturity has fostered investor confidence,” Falade said.

The change is now visible in production. Aradel affiliates supply more than 70 million standard cubic feet of gas per day. ND Western delivers about 250 million scf daily to the domestic market. Renaissance Africa produces close to 2 billion scf per day, largely for LNG exports, with plans to expand domestic supply. “These numbers reflect renewed confidence in the gas business,” he said.

Investors see traction—but execution matters

Investors at the conference agreed that the trajectory has improved—but cautioned that capital remains selective. Segun Olujobi of Vertex Energy said credible offtake, governance standards and execution discipline now determine bankability.

Export markets remain the most reliable buyers, while the domestic gas market is becoming investable only gradually as pricing improves and enforcement strengthens. For smaller operators, Olujobi said partnerships, aggregation of volumes and shared infrastructure are increasingly essential.

“Capital responds to comfort,” he said, pointing to repayment history, transparency and partner quality as decisive factors.
For executives such as Falade and investors like Olujobi, the shift from intent to execution depends less on policy statements than on whether regulation translates into speed, clarity and predictable outcomes.

Regulators geared to deliver

That expectation now rests on the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, led by Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan to further improve sector regulation and investability. Eyesan, newly appointed to lead NUPRC, has pledged to reposition the Commission as a business enabler, expand gas production and accelerate approvals under the PIA. Her tenure coincides with a new licensing round and NNPC Limited’s announced divestment programme—developments that could unlock gas-heavy assets if handled with speed and consistency.

Jennis Anyanwu, Deputy Director, Gas Production and Utilisation at the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, said at the event that Nigeria has more than 50 trillion cubic feet of gas available for monetisation, giving the country enough gas to pitch to global investors . He also said that the regulator has issued 19 primary gas-related regulations.

“Some of these regulations are designed to balance gas exports with domestic gas delivery, in line with the objective of catalysing industrialisation through gas,” he said.

He added that NUPRC’s industry engagements, investment roadshows and Decade of Gas consultations helped identify regulatory, fiscal and infrastructure bottlenecks—input that shaped recent Presidential Executive Orders now credited with stimulating investment.

Local capital, domestic capacity

Alongside regulation, targeted financing is supporting domestic gas utilisation. The Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board, led by Felix Omatsola Ogbe, is backing projects through the Nigerian Content Intervention Fund.

Represented by Ejiro Dortie, the Board disclosed that the fund provides single-digit, long-tenor financing of up to $10 million per obligor via the Bank of Industry and NEXIM, supporting gas cylinders, storage and distribution infrastructure, as well as pipelines such as AKK and OB3.
A narrow but real opportunity

Nigeria’s gas challenge was never about geology. It was about structure, pricing and credibility. What Falade and others argued is that these elements are finally aligning.

“Today, things are beginning to shift,” Falade said. “Nigeria is better positioned to transform gas from a byproduct into a central driver of industrial and economic growth.”

The opportunity is real—but narrow. If licences turn into production, rules into projects and confidence into capital, Nigeria’s gas sector may finally complete the transition from sacrifice to structure—and from promise to investable reality.