Tinubu’s First Two Years: Twelve Gains, Twelve Gaps

Princess G. A. Adebajo-Fraser

Two years into the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigeria is undergoing a phase of reform more far-reaching than anything seen in the past decade. Whether Nigerians welcome the pace or feel crushed by the transition, one thing is obvious: this government has gone straight for structural issues that many of its predecessors dodged.

Fuel subsidy gone. FX windows unified. Revenue reforms pushed. Security funding ramped up. The result is a mix of bold decisions, painful adjustment, renewed international interest—and an increasingly impatient population struggling under inflation and hardship.

Tinubu came into office with just 36.3% of the vote—the lowest winning share of any president in the Fourth Republic. Rather than play safe and chase popularity, he chose a reformer’s path. That courage is real. But so are the implementation gaps, the communication failures and the perception that ordinary people have been left to carry too much of the burden.

        This piece captures both sides of the ledger in one place:

        Twelve key achievements reshaping Nigeria, and

        Twelve critical areas where the government could have done far better.

Part I – The 12 Achievements of Repositioning Nigeria Under President Tinubu

1.      Ending Distortions: Fuel Subsidy Removal & FX Unification

The removal of the petroleum subsidy and the unification of Nigeria’s multiple FX windows are the defining economic interventions of this administration. They freed up massive fiscal resources and ended opaque arbitrage that enriched middlemen and punished real producers. Painful in the short term, yes—but structurally unavoidable if Nigeria is to stop bleeding.

2.      A Stronger Fiscal Base Through Revenue Expansion

For decades, Nigeria behaved like an oil-dependent patient on life support. Tinubu’s team has pushed a shift: better tax administration, digital revenue systems and an expanded non-oil tax base. With the tax-to-GDP ratio rising and debt-service pressure easing, the country is moving—slowly—towards a more sustainable fiscal footing.

3.      Reserves and External Accounts Gaining Stability

After prolonged pressure, signs of stabilised FX reserves and improved balance-of-payments performance have emerged. This has boosted Nigeria’s credibility with multilateral lenders and global markets and laid a firmer base for foreign investment and external financing.

4.      Returning the Economy to Growth

Despite inflation and heavy adjustment costs, GDP growth has edged upward from earlier stagnation. Investment interest is reappearing, capital projects are reopening and the economy is recalibrating around more honest prices and a more transparent FX regime. It is not a boom, but it is a shift away from drift.

5.      Wider-Reach Social Investment

Millions of vulnerable Nigerians are now on expanded, digital cash-transfer and household-support schemes. The focus on electronic, direct-to-beneficiary delivery marks a break from old patronage-heavy models of welfare. Targeting and transparency are still issues—but the basic architecture is more people-centred than before.

6.      Modernising Education: Loans, Curriculum & Digital Exams

Education reforms are among the most significant in years:

        A national student-loan scheme opening access for young Nigerians shut out by cost.

        Curriculum upgrades aimed at employability and digital literacy.

        Digital transformation of exam bodies to reduce malpractice and speed processes.

        For once, human capital is being treated as a strategic investment, not a talking point.

7. Infrastructure Revival & Regional Development

The Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway is the signature infrastructure project, but the agenda is broader: regional development commissions across all six geopolitical zones to balance investment beyond the usual Lagos–Abuja corridor. In aviation, key airports are being upgraded, improving safety, connectivity and ease of travel for business, tourism and the diaspora.

8. Security Gains in Previously Volatile Areas

Nigeria is far from secure, but some former flashpoints have improved. Parts of Southern Kaduna, Niger, Kogi and Benue have seen roads reopen and farmers return to previously abandoned lands. Community-based peace structures across over 120 LGAs are anchoring these improvements. A record defence budget and reforms aimed at stopping jailbreaks signal a more serious posture than in the past.

9.      Innovative Healthcare: Youth Health Ambassadors & PHC Upgrades

The Health Fellows/Ambassadors programme has deployed hundreds of young health workers nationwide, strengthening primary healthcare while creating jobs. Combined with PHC upgrades, expanded health insurance and new specialist centres, the sector is finally seeing targeted, youth-driven innovation rather than endless rhetoric.

10.    A Surging Digital Economy and Cleaner Public Systems

Nigeria’s digital economy is booming:

        Remote global jobs, fintech and online entrepreneurship are expanding.

        Reforms in Customs, Ports, Shipping and Oil & Gas are chipping away at corruption and delay.

        Immigration has moved towards digital processes, including modern passport production and electronic airport systems.

This quiet digital revolution—public and private—is improving productivity and income opportunities, especially for younger Nigerians.

11.    Renewed Global Standing & Foreign Investment Attraction

Nigeria is back on serious global economic and diplomatic tables—from G20 engagement spaces to AU–EU dialogues and bilateral investment tracks. Countries like Brazil, China and Russia are exploring or deepening strategic ties, attracted by Nigeria’s gas reserves, mineral resources and consumer market. December 2024’s “Detty December” positioned Nigeria as a major festive tourism hotspot, pulling in visitors and foreign exchange.

The catch is clear: to fully benefit from this renewed interest, insecurity must be tackled far more decisively.

12.    Diversification Through Agriculture & Solid Minerals

New agro-processing initiatives and reforms in solid-minerals governance are pushing Nigeria away from crude oil dependence. If properly executed and secured, these changes could shift the economy from raw commodity exports to value-added processing—creating jobs, building resilience and reshaping the growth model.

Part II – Twelve Things President Tinubu Could Have Done Better in His First Two Years

1.      A Softer Landing on Fuel Subsidy Removal

The fuel subsidy removal was economically right but socially brutal. There was no phased plan, no clear timeline, no substantial prior cushioning. Prices jumped overnight; safety nets arrived late and thin. A staged removal, backed by temporary transport support and targeted energy subsidies for the poorest, would have reduced the shock.

2.      Poor Communication of Economic Reforms

For a president elected with only 36.3% of the vote, communication should have been a central survival strategy. Instead, Nigerians often encountered major reforms as breaking news, not part of a clearly explained national roadmap. A professional Perception Management strategy—like those proposed by the National Patriots—and regular national media engagements involving the President, Vice President, ministers, security chiefs and governors should have been standard from day one.

3.      Managing Inflation and Food Prices Too Weakly, Too Late

Inflation, especially food inflation, has destroyed household budgets. Some of it was unavoidable after subsidy and FX reforms, but the response was not aggressive enough. Cartels and large traders exploited the chaos. The FCCPC’s current interventions are welcome but late and still not tough enough. A rapid, visible crackdown on price gouging and hoarding should have been built into the original reform package.

4.      Weak Federal–State Coordination

Too much was left in the hands of governors without independent federal verification. The reported N325 billion to Northern states, with little visible impact or transparent accounting, is a classic case. Presidential Liaison Officers in each state, reporting directly to the Presidency and tracking federal programmes on the ground, should have existed from the outset.

5.      FX Reform That Hit SMEs Too Hard

Unifying exchange rates was necessary, but it hit SMEs like a hammer. Import-dependent small businesses saw costs explode and planning become almost impossible. A temporary SME-support FX window, targeted credit or tax relief for the most exposed sectors could have prevented many closures and job losses. The reform logic was correct; the cushioning was weak.

6.      Late and Inconsistent Austerity at the Top

While citizens were told to endure, images of large delegations, expensive foreign trips and questionable spending undermined the moral high ground. The government should have cut waste visibly and aggressively from day one. It is not just economics; it is optics and trust.

7.      Late and Blunt Food-Security Response

The state of emergency on food security came later than it should have, and the response was not sharply structured into short-, medium- and long-term actions. There should have been:

        Short-term: rapid irrigation deployment, secured farmlands, quick-yield crops.

        Medium-term: storage, logistics and affordable finance.

        Long-term: mechanisation and agro-processing.

A well-empowered Presidential Food Security Intervention Committee with clear timelines would have produced quicker, more visible relief.

8.      Slow Cabinet Formation and Questionable Key Appointments

Cabinet formation was slow, and the outcome did not always justify the delay. Too many appointments looked like political IOUs. A model that required each state to nominate three strong technocrats would have given the President better options. On security, global practice suggests having both a seasoned retired General as NSA and another as Defence Minister. Not doing so may have weakened strategic depth in a period of serious threat. Delay on appointment of Ambassadors has caused serious backlash especially with the G7 countries which led to the Trump threat. Ambassadors must be persons of proven integrity who have not been involved in any controversy or dismissed from any government agency they served. Career Diplomats should be considered for a time like this in order to add value to the President’s image laundering and global investment drive.

9. Underused Private-Sector Capacity and Ideas

The private sector and civic groups like the National Patriots have offered concrete, sometimes low-cost solutions across sectors—from perception management to security-support technologies and social interventions. Engagement has been ad hoc rather than structured. A formal mechanism to harvest, vet and implement these ideas is still missing, and that’s a wasted opportunity.

10.    Insecurity Response Still Not Fast or Deep Enough

Despite some gains, the insecurity response remains too reactive. Allegations of sabotage, low troop morale and compromised operations are serious. State-level laws prescribing capital punishment for kidnappers, bandits and terrorists—such as Edo has adopted—should be debated more widely if Nigeria is serious about deterrence. Extremists will use land, air and sea to embarrass the state; only a genuinely proactive, tech-enabled defence posture will change the equation. And while modern tools like weaponised drones, kamikaze UAS and persistent surveillance can shift the battlefield quickly, no serious analyst believes entrenched insecurity can be wiped out “in seven days”. Expectations must be tough but realistic.

11.    Cash Transfers Still Not Trusted

From the last administration to this one, cash-transfer programmes have struggled with credibility. Nigerians doubt that funds reach the truly poor. In a high-corruption environment, big figures announced from podiums are meaningless without verifiable delivery. Digital systems, open beneficiary registers, independent audits and embedded Presidential Liaison Officers could help rebuild trust.

12.    Slow Digitalisation of Governance Delivery

While there is plenty of talk about a digital economy, many MDAs still run on paper files, manual approvals and opaque procedures that breed corruption and delay. Accelerated rollout of digital IDs, real-time payments, subsidy-tracking and public dashboards for key programmes would transform service delivery and rebuild confidence far more than slogans.

Final Word

Tinubu’s first two years are not about cosmetic adjustments—they are about structural surgery. On one side are historic reforms, renewed global engagement and real attempts at diversification. On the other are serious mistakes in timing, empathy, communication, appointments and coordination that have deepened citizen pain and damaged trust.

Fixing those gaps quickly and honestly will determine whether these bold reforms translate into broad-based prosperity—or remain remembered as pain without payoff as 2027 approaches.

•Princess G. A. Adebajo-Fraser, MFR

The National Patriots Movement