Nigeria Fails to Meet 1.5 Million Bpd OPEC Oil Production Target for Third Month

•Cartel sticks to demand outlook, sees small surplus in 2026

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

Again, Nigeria failed to meet its 1.5 million bpd Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) crude oil production in October, despite marginally climbing to 1.4 million bpd during the month under consideration from 1.39 million bpd  in September.

The Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released by the international oil cartel yesterday indicated that self-reported output data by the country saw Nigeria fall short of meeting its OPEC-assigned quota for the third consecutive month.

THISDAY’s checks showed that the last time Nigeria met its OPEC target was July 2025, when its crude oil production hit 1.50 million bpd, as against 1.43 million in August and in September when it was 1.39 million bpd.

The report highlights the country’s ongoing struggle to sustain production recovery despite new investments and government interventions in the upstream sector. In September, the authorities blamed the reduction in production on the strike by oil workers.

However, the Nigerian 2025 budget assumed oil production of about 2.06 million bpd (crude + condensate) at a benchmark price of $75 per barrel, whereas actual production has fallen short of that goal.

Because production is below the budget benchmark, revenue from oil is lower than projected. Since oil remains a major source of foreign exchange and government revenue, under-performance means the government will face a revenue shortfall.

Besides, with the price assumption of $75/barrel also under pressure, the combination of lower output and lower price magnifies the revenue gap. This in turn tightens fiscal space, occasioned by heavier borrowing, squeeze in capital-expenditure, as existing debt servicing and recurrent costs absorb more of the budget.

Also in the report, OPEC kept its global oil demand growth forecasts unchanged for this year and 2026, for a fourth month in a row, but highlighted a sizeable build in global oil stocks.

It said the world oil market will see a small surplus in 2026 after production increases and higher supply from other producers, a further shift from its earlier projections of a deficit.

In the monthly report on Wednesday, OPEC said its members pumped 43.02 million barrels per day in October, down 73,000 bpd from September despite the output increase agreement for the month, led by a drop in Kazakhstan.

Expected demand for OPEC+ crude at 43.0 million bpd in 2026, it said,  implies that the world market will show a small surplus of 20,000 bpd if the wider group keeps pumping at October’s rate, according to a Reuters calculation based on the report.

This marks a further shift from OPEC’s earlier projection of a deficit, which provided a more comfortable backdrop for raising production. Last month’s report projected a deficit of 50,000 bpd and the September report a shortfall of 700,000 bpd.

Oil extended an earlier decline after the report was published and was down over 3 per cent to about $63 a barrel.

OPEC lowered its 2026 demand forecast for OPEC+ crude by 100,000 bpd from the previous projection after an upward revision to its 2025 estimates for production outside OPEC+. OPEC’s demand forecasts are at the higher end of industry estimates, such as those from the International Energy Agency. OPEC’s outlook for a supply deficit in 2026 stood in contrast to that of the IEA and many analysts.

There is still a large gap between OPEC’s projections and those of other forecasters, which expect supply to outpace demand significantly next year.

The IEA’s latest forecasts imply that supply could exceed demand by about 4 million bpd in 2026, equal to almost 4 per cent of global demand. The agency, which advises industrialised countries, is scheduled to update its forecasts on Thursday.

OPEC also said the global economy’s growth trend remained firm and it maintained its forecasts for global oil demand to rise by 1.3 million bpd this year and at a slightly faster rate in 2026. “The global economy has remained resilient through 2025, supported by easing trade uncertainty since the summer,” OPEC said in the report.