Lagos Guessing Game for Governorship

In Lagos politics, silence is never empty. Even when it seems to be so, walk close enough to find it humming with calculation. As 2027 creeps closer, everyone listens for one voice to know who will carry the All Progressives Congress (APC) flag for governor. That is the voice of President Bola Tinubu. But for now, the city waits, and its politicians play their quiet chess.

The list of hopefuls grows by the week. There is Seyi Tinubu, the president’s son, still undeclared yet buoyed by whispers and diaspora endorsements. There is Akinwunmi Ambode, still courted by loyalists eager to rewrite his unfinished story. Tokunbo Abiru stands nearby: banker, senator, and loyal technocrat with Tinubu’s trust.

Meanwhile, Femi Gbajabiamila, the Chief of Staff and former Speaker, drifts into the conversation. His allies see a man seasoned by lawmaking and now armed with executive experience. His critics say Lagos needs youth, not nostalgia. At 63, his age has become a campaign before the campaign.

Mudashiru Obasa, the Assembly Speaker, has mastered the art of coyness. He says he has “not given serious thought” to being governor—then quickly adds that those before him were “not better off.” Translation: he is available. His name, like Abiru’s, hovers between ambition and discretion.

There’s reportedly also Honourable Abike Dabiri-Erewa in the ring. But she’s only allegedly interested in a deputy governorship position rather than a governorship.

The politics of geography adds spice. The IBILE zones (Ikorodu, Badagry, Ikeja, Lagos Island, and Epe) are dusting off old claims. Epe wants redemption for Ambode’s truncated tenure. Badagry asks for its first chance since 1999. Ikorodu insists that 14 days of deputy governorship never counted as power.

Through it all, the president watches in silence. He, more than anyone, knows that in Lagos, endorsements are made with timing, not talk. The contenders may smile at events and pose for photos, but they are running invisible races.

All in all, even the harshest critics agree that when Tinubu finally speaks, Lagos will exhale. Until then, speculation is the only campaign.