Nigeria at 65: AfCFTA as a Catalyst for National Renewal

BY  Ese Owie, D.Phil (Oxon.)*

When the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) came into effect on January 1, 2021, it was hailed as the most ambitious integration project since the founding of the African Union. A single market of 1.3 billion people and a combined GDP of $3.4 trillion promised to reposition Africa in the global trade architecture. For Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy and a historic champion of continental integration, the AfCFTA should have been a natural theatre for leadership, innovation, and prosperity. Yet, four years on, Nigeria’s engagement with this landmark initiative remains hesitant, uneven, and far from transformative.

In 2024, total trade surged by about 89.7 percent to nearly ₦138.03 trillion, and by the end of the first quarter of 2025, the country recorded a trade surplus of ₦7.5 trillion representing a 52 percent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) rise when compared to the ₦5.17 trillion recorded in Q1’25   But beneath this headline growth lies a disquieting trend: intra-African trade accounted for approximately 6.4 percent of Nigeria’s total. While South Africa, Kenya, Egypt, and Morocco have begun to shape industrial zones, logistics corridors, and export-ready ecosystems aligned with AfCFTA, Nigeria is still struggling to overcome infrastructural bottlenecks, currency volatility, and inconsistent trade policy.

This paradox is not just economic, it is existential. Nigeria was instrumental in crafting the architecture of Africa’s integration. From the Lagos Plan of Action of 1980 to the Abuja Treaty of 1991, Nigerian diplomacy helped midwife the vision that became AfCFTA. That Nigeria now lags in leveraging it is a betrayal of history, a squandering of opportunity, and a warning sign for the future.

The Promise of AfCFTA

The AfCFTA is not merely about lowering tariffs. It is about reconfiguring Africa’s economic geography, catalyzing industrialization, and forging new value chains across borders. For Nigeria, the opportunities are immense: access to a vast market for its goods and services, diversification away from crude oil dependency, and the chance to lead in shaping continental standards, dispute resolution, and digital trade frameworks. AfCFTA is the blueprint for an Africa that trades more with itself, negotiates as a bloc with global powers, and builds prosperity from within.

Yet Nigeria’s export profile remains dangerously narrow. More than 81 percent of exports are crude petroleum and natural gas. Agricultural commodities and manufactured goods barely register. This concentration not only diminishes Nigeria’s attractiveness in African markets but also leaves its economy exposed to the volatility of global oil prices. To unlock AfCFTA’s promise as catalyst for national rebirth, Nigeria must embrace diversification with urgency and discipline.

The Path Forward

Nigeria’s 65th independence anniversary offers both a moment of reflection and a call to action. If the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is to serve as a catalyst for national renewal, Nigeria must pivot decisively from rhetoric to reform. Eight priorities stand out.

• Simplify and digitise trade processes: Customs, ports, and border agencies must be fully digitised, harmonised, and interoperable with AfCFTA protocols. Integration with the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) would reduce transaction costs and settlement delays, while enhancing transparency and accountability. A streamlined, rules-based trading environment is a prerequisite for competitiveness.
• Incentivise non-oil exports: Nigeria must diversify its export base beyond hydrocarbons. Agro-processing, textiles, light machinery, and pharmaceuticals already enjoy robust continental demand. Export credit guarantees, targeted FX liquidity windows, and performance-based tax rebates would create incentives for firms to seize these opportunities and scale.
• Operationalise Special Economic Zones (SEZs): Industrial hubs in Ogun, Kano, Aba, and Calabar must move from paper to practice. Linking them to regional transport corridors such as the Lagos–Abidjan and the Trans-Saharan routes, would allow them to serve as anchors for regional value chains and magnets for investment.
• Support SMEs and manufacturing ecosystems: The backbone of Nigerian industry is small and medium-sized enterprises. Reliable electricity, affordable finance, and structured agricultural linkages are essential to enabling these firms to compete credibly in African markets. Without such basics, the AfCFTA will remain aspirational.
• Invest in infrastructure as continental arteries of trade: Roads, railways, and ports must be conceived not merely as domestic projects but as regional arteries of commerce. Aligning infrastructure investment with AfCFTA trade corridors would yield network effects, reduce logistics costs, and integrate Nigeria more deeply into continental supply chains.
• Deepen trade finance and insurance capacity: Pan-African Development Financial Institutions and domestic financial institutions must expand affordable credit lines, insurance, and risk-cover instruments to enable African transactions. Without accessible trade finance, even the most competitive Nigerian goods cannot flow across borders at scale.
• Domesticate AfCFTA protocols in Nigerian law: Ratification is not implementation. AfCFTA provisions on standards, intellectual property, investment protections, and dispute settlement must be embedded in Nigerian statutes and regulatory frameworks. This will provide legal certainty for both domestic firms and foreign investors.
• Champion regional value chains over zero-sum competition: Nigeria must resist the temptation to compete in isolation. Instead, it should co-create supply chains with neighbours. Processing cocoa with Ghana, textiles with Benin, and auto parts with Côte d’Ivoire could be a starting point. Such integration will position West Africa as a globally relevant production hub.

Nigeria and Afri-Multilateralism

Beyond economics lies diplomacy. Nigeria’s leadership in institutionalising what I have elsewhere described as Afri-Multilateralism – a new dialectic of sustainable trade cooperation among African states and with external blocs – remains unfinished business. In a multipolar world where the EU, ASEAN, and the US all seek Africa’s markets, Nigeria must spearhead Africa’s engagement as a bloc, harmonising tariffs, strengthening dispute resolution, and embedding Africa’s collective agency. Indeed, without agency, Africa risks being acted upon rather than acting, its terms of trade dictated externally rather than negotiated from a position of coordinated strength.

A Call to Renewal

At 65, Nigeria faces a choice. It can remain a spectator in the integration it once championed, or it can reclaim its mantle as Africa’s leader, architect, and driver of shared prosperity. The AfCFTA is not just another trade deal; it is Africa’s development blueprint for a post-oil century. For Nigeria, it is both an obligation and an opportunity: an obligation to honour its history of leadership, and an opportunity to fashion a new era of industrialisation, diversification, and continental influence.

The continent is watching. The world is waiting. Nigeria must rise. At 65, the time has come to move from potential to performance, from promise to practice. AfCFTA is the catalyst. National renewal is the prize.

* Dr. Ese Owie is the Chief Executive Officer of the University of Oxford Climate Alumni Network. He currently serves as Professor of International Trade Law, International Relations, and Climate Diplomacy and Policy at EUCLID (Pôle Universitaire Euclide / Euclid University) and is a Visiting Research Fellow at the University of Essex Law School.