Daily Petrol Demand Falls to 38.9m Litres as Lagos Dominates June Truckouts

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

The daily average demand for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) also known as petrol stabilised at about 38.94 million litres per day in June this year, with Lagos state consuming about 14.27 per cent or 205.66 million litres out of the roughly 1.44 billion litres national supply for the month.

Specifically, a document seen by THISDAY showed that Nigeria’s monthly truck-out of petrol in that month totaled 1,440,768,129 litres, with Lagos alone taking 205,664,228 litres, underscoring the city-state’s overwhelming share of retail fuel distribution in the period.

The data was presented by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) to the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) during their July meeting.

A THISDAY analysis showed that the official state-by-state truck-out breakdown indicated a very uneven spread of petrol offtake across the federation, reflecting population concentration, transport and commercial hubs, industrial demand, and logistics patterns. 

As mentioned earlier, the top end of the distribution was led by Lagos, followed by Ogun at 88,686,299 litres (6.16 per cent), the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) at 77,507,001 litres (5.38 per cent), Oyo at 72,809,933 litres (5.05 per cent), Delta at 68,509,151 litres (4.76 per cent) and Kano at 68,221,917 litres (4.74 per cent). Together these six states accounted for a large chunk of June supply.

The data further showed that petrol consumption has more than halved when it was at its peak in 2021. Nigeria’s highest recorded average daily petrol consumption occurred in April 2021, when official data showed about 93 million litres were used each day. 

This figure, far above the long-standing national average of around 61 million litres, the managers of the sector at the time said, was largely driven by a combination of heavy subsidy payments and the smuggling of fuel to neighbouring countries where prices were significantly higher. 

The artificially low domestic price, sustained by subsidies, encouraged excessive demand and leakage across borders. By 2023, just before the federal government removed the petrol subsidy on May 29, daily consumption had already eased to around 66 million litres. 

The policy change, which allowed pump prices to rise to market-reflective levels, had an immediate impact. In the months that followed, reported average daily usage dropped sharply to between 47 million litres and 50 million litres, according to available data.

But that figure has now further shrunk to 38.94 million litres in June, when the total supply for the month, which was 1,440,768,129 litres, is divided by the number of sub-nationals, that is 36 states plus the FCT.

Beyond those top consumers, Adamawa recorded 56,882,884 litres (3.95 per cent); Rivers 44,600,006 litres (3.10 per cent); Edo 43,144,265 litres (2.99 per cent); Kaduna 43,130,568 litres (2.99 per cent); Niger 40,685,314 litres (2.82 per cent); Anambra 40,497,103 litres (2.81 per cent) and Sokoto 37,036,470 litres (2.57 per cent). 

Besides, Osun’s total consumption was 35,476,767 litres (2.46 per cent); Ondo 35,050,254 litres (2.43 per cent); Kwara 34,822,991 litres (2.42 per cent); Akwa Ibom 33,832,749 litres (2.35 per cent); Imo 30,554,139 litres (2.12 per cent); Kebbi 30,310,835 litres (2.10 per cent); Bauchi 31,037,692 litres (2.16 per cent); Benue 25,710,388 litres (1.78 per cent) and Nasarawa 25,119,553 litres (1.74 per cent).

In the same vein, Katsina’s demand was 24,789,149 litres (1.72 per cent); Kogi 24,112,755 litres (1.67 per cent); Abia 23,685,903 litres (1.64 per cent); Cross River 22,996,875 litres (1.60 per cent); Enugu 27,443,296 litres (1.90 per cent); Plateau 19,440,859 litres (1.35 per cent); Gombe 19,161,193 litres (1.33 per cent); Borno 18,894,241 litres (1.31 per cent) and Zamfara 17,044,640 litres (1.18 per cent).

Finally, for the month under consideration, the least consumers were: Ekiti 15,264,529 litres (1.06 per cent); Taraba 15,144,500 litres (1.05 per cent); Bayelsa 11,855,967 litres (0.82 per cent); Yobe 11,692,586 litres (0.81 per cent); Ebonyi 10,511,251 litres (0.73 per cent); and Jigawa 9,439,878 litres (0.66 per cent). Each figure represents that state’s share of the 1.441 billion litres trucked out nationwide in June.

A further breakdown indicated that only 12 states exceeded the 38.94 average, led by Lagos, Ogun, FCT, Oyo, Delta and Kano. The remaining 25 states fell below the mean, with several (Jigawa, Ebonyi, Yobe, Bayelsa) accounting for less than 1 per cent each. The skew showed that Lagos’s single-state share (14.27 per cent) was more than double the combined shares of many smaller consumers.

Several factors were likely to underpin the distribution pattern, including the predictability of Lagos’s dominance, given its population density, huge vehicle fleet, persistent intra- and inter-state mobility, concentration of commercial and maritime activity, and status as the country’s primary retail market. 

Ogun’s elevated share may also have reflected its industrial clusters and proximity to Lagos, where depots and distribution lines serve both states. 

Also, the FCT’s high offtake highlighted heavy commuter and official transport activity, while oil-producing and industrial states such as Delta, Rivers and Edo showed strong volumes consistent with refinery, commercial and logistical demand.

The north-south spread also appeared as Kano’s high ranking (4.74 per cent) was consistent with its status as a major commercial and transport hub in the north, while several northern states: Jigawa, Yobe, Zamfara feature lower shares, which may reflect smaller urban populations, limited vehicle density, constrained distribution infrastructure or alternative patterns of fuel sourcing such as cross-border supply.