2027: Beyond Ethnic and Regional Ambush

The Advocate

By Onikepo Braithwaite

Onikepo.braithwaite@thisdaylive.com

“A Politician thinks of the next election; a Statesman thinks of the next generation.”

– James Freeman Clarke

Founding Fathers

The truth of the matter is that, none of our so-called leaders/Politicians of today, can be compared to our Founding Fathers, the Sardauna of Sokoto, Sir Ahmadu Bello, KBE, GCON (Gamji); Dr Michael Okpara, GCON and Chief Obafemi Awolowo, GCFR, SAN. They were statesmen; now, we have Politicians. 

The Insincerity of Present-day Politicians 

I decided to take a break from our series on lawlessness of law enforcement, to discuss Nigerian Politicians generally. Let me state categorically that I do not hold court for the Tinubu administration or anyone; I just state the facts as I see them. 

Many consider our present-day Politicians to be one of the most selfish, self-centred, self-serving bunch of people in History! The words of James Clarke, aptly describe the average Nigerian Politician – they only think about the next election, how to get into power and stay in power forever, amass wealth for themselves, gain everlasting control, and not much else. They are not too concerned about the welfare of the people. And, this behaviour of doing anything to stay in office, isn’t limited to Nigerian Politicians alone – we have Paul Biya, Yuweri Museveni, Alassane Quattara, Faustin-Archange Touadera and Co, who want to die in office, while we have the ‘Oyinbo’ Kemi Badenoch, who will say anything to be popular with British, including  denying her Nigerian heritage/lying that her children cannot get Nigerian citizenship because she’s a woman. See Section 25(1)(a)-(c) of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended)(the Constitution).

So, as the next cycle of elections are almost upon us, this is the time when all Nigerians must “shine their eyes”, and question not just the performance of the ruling APC and all the 2023-2027 administrations, that is, Federal and State Governments vis-à-vis how well they have fared in achieving the goals set in Chapter II of the Constitution – the Fundamental Objectives and Directive Principles of State Policy, but, to thoroughly interrogate the Opposition who seek to replace them, their agenda and solutions to the problems we are facing, that is, if they have any viable alternatives or plans. Of course, a strong opposition is always required for a democracy to thrive – the threat that if you don’t do well, there are others standing by who can replace you. See Sections 38(1) & 40 of the Constitution which guarantee the right of every Nigerian to freedom of thought and association, respectively. 

The Revamped ADC

But, take for instance, the revamped Opposition Party, ADC, which appears to have taken over from PDP as the main opposition party; its Promoters are not brand new people who just dropped from Jupiter or Mars; a good number of them are not only Politicians who have moved through the two major political parties that have landed Nigeria in these dire straits, that is, the PDP and APC (or at least, one of them), they have also held office at the highest level of governance. And so, instead of listening to their divisive rhetoric – using ethnicity, religion and all manner of devices to cause division amongst Nigerians for their own advantage, voters should be asking how they performed when they were in office – whether they looted the treasury, and most importantly, their party’s manifesto and specific solutions to important matters affecting Nigeria such as security, development and corruption, and how they intend to outperform the incumbent administration. 

A Battle of Policies, Not Personalities and Nonsense

It is no longer good enough for any aspiring Politician or office holder, or party hoping take over as the ruling party, to tell us that the Tinubu administration is bad, Nigerians are hungry etc, without showcasing their viable, alternative policies that will prove that they have a better agenda. Is that not how the Jonathan administration was voted out? People who had been part of the failure of PDP simply jumped ship, repackaged themselves, took advantage of the fact that the Northern elite always wants the Presidency of Nigeria, President Buhari’s popularity and huge number of votes he came with, and with absolutely no agenda or focus, won the election, and ran the country more into the ground! We simply went from frying pan to fire! 

Nigerians mustn’t fall for this again. We must question the motives of every opposition, particularly as one of the main ADC members, Malam Nasir El Rufai, once told Nigerians that, as the opposition, even when the incumbent is doing anything good, you must criticise and condemn what they’re doing – a self-centred, underhand tactic, to gain votes. As an electorate that has been burnt several times, we must be careful. Did President Tinubu too, who criticised the Jonathan administration for wanting to remove the fuel subsidy in 2012, not remove the very same subsidy the moment he was sworn in as President, even before he reached his office?

63% of the Vote!

By now, the Nigerian Opposition ought to be akin to that of the UK, a strong opposition that studies the policies of the incumbent administration, criticises them constructively, develops alternative/substitute policies and holds government accountable. Politics and governance should be about a battle of policies – whose policies are most beneficial to Nigeria and serves the welfare of Nigerians the best (see Section 14(2)(b) of the Constitution on the primary purpose of government), and not certainly not about things like “the North gave President Tinubu 63% of his votes, and they are being sidelined and deprived, so vote him out”.

While it is undoubtedly important that the North giving President Tinubu 63% of the vote, helped him secure the highest number of votes in accordance to Section 134(2)(a) of the Constitution, allocation of developmental projects, though must take voter loyalty into consideration, is also influenced by other factors including but not limited to, areas that may have infrastructural gaps, economic and other benefits that will be derived from locating the infrastructure in one particular area, as opposed to another area. Furthermore, without the spread required by Section 134(2)(b), that is, not less than 25% of the votes cast in each of at least two-thirds of all the States and FCT, that is 25 States, no President can be declared the winner of an election in Nigeria. Even where there is only one Presidential candidate in an election, Section 133(b) of the Constitution provides that he/she must have that 25% spread in 25 States in Yes votes. Out of the 19 Northern States and Abuja, President Tinubu got the highest number of votes in 11 out of 20. Even if he had secured the 25% spread in all the Northern States, without the spread in at least 5 other Southern States, he wouldn’t have been declared President. Without the requisite constitutional spread, the 63% votes alone, couldn’t have clinched the Presidency. The moral of the story, is that we all need each other. See the case of Abubakar Atiku & Anor v INEC & Ors (2023) LPELR-61556(SC) per John Inyang Okoro, JSC.

The Sardauna of Sokoto, Sir Ahmadu Bello 

I watched a video about the Sardauna, his life, his beliefs, his works, and I’m sorry to say that, no Northern leader appears to have lived up to him or his expectations. In almost 65 years post-independence, we have had over 40 years of Northern leadership, so if the North has issues or is now being considered by the Northern Politicians/elite to be disadvantaged, pray tell, whose fault is it? President Tinubu who assumed office two years ago? I think not. As Governor Uba Sani said recently, Northern leaders must “look at themselves in the mirror, particularly those at the helm of affairs in the last 20 years….and accept the blame that, we failed our region”. The truth is that, all Northern Politicians have done, is to imbibe the culture of voting into their people, and that has strengthened their position when it comes to elections and national discourse, but, it hasn’t yielded any iota of the dividends of democracy for the voters themselves. Sardauna aka Gamji was a shade for the Northerners, while the present-day Northern Politicians/Elite have left their people out in the open to be destroyed by the elements! They are upset, not because they care about their people, but because they feel that they haven’t been given enough ‘juicy’ portfolios in this administration.

Since the inception of the Fourth Republic in 1999, indigenes of Nigerian States have elected their own Governors. These Governors have been fully in control of their States and Local Government Councils (LGCs), so much so that the Attorney-General of the Federation had to go to the Supreme Court to extricate the LGCs, a separate tier of government, from the hands of the State Governments (see AGF v AG Abia & 35 Ors (2024) LPELR-62576(SC) per Emmanuel Akomaye Agim, JSC) and together, they are ones directly in charge of the functions that concern the welfare of their people – see Sections 5(2) & 7 of the Constitution, Concurrent Legislative List and Fourth Schedule; they also collect certain rates and taxes. Primary, adult education, healthcare and development of agriculture are the responsibility of the LGCs (see AGF v AG Abia & 35 Ors (Supra) per Moore Adumein, JSC on the importance of the functions of LGCs, and how the proper exercise of same can impact positively on all Nigerian citizens), while the State Government is responsible for Secondary and tertiary education, amongst other things. Like the Federal Government, State Governments are also able to generate and distribute electricity. How then do we lay the blame of the failure to carry out State and Local Government functions, on the Federal Government or President Tinubu? 

The video showed some of Sardauna’s achievements, in his years as Premier of the Northern Region. It was during his time that the NRDC was re-christened the Northern Nigeria Development Corporation (NNDC) to promote commerce and development in the Northern Region. When Sardauna became Premier in 1954, there were only two secondary schools in the North – Katsina/Kaduna College, later known as Barewa College, and Government College, Keffi. In 7 years, Sardauna established secondary schools in all the 13 Provinces of the North; each Province also had a Technical School/College; he established Teacher Training Colleges, and most importantly, the Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria. Sardauna spent at least 40% of his budget on education, only second to Chief Awolowo’s 50% or so. 

Today, the North lags behind in education, and has done so for many decades. For example, the 2017/2018 NCEE cut-off mark for Imo State was 66%, while that of Sokoto was 7% for females, and Zamfara, 14% for males and 12% for females. This was during President Buhari’s tenure, not President Tinubu’s. Governor Dauda Lawal is changing this narrative, because he is committed – in 2024, Zamfara was able to clinch the 2nd position of having the highest number of gifted students pass the same common entrance exam, with Anambra State taking the 1st position. 

The North has been relying on “Quota System” for decades, which allows a certain percentage of ‘disadvantaged’ students to be accepted into the Unity schools, despite their poor grades. This was certainly not what Sardauna planned for the North, because he believed a country’s development depended on how educated the people are. Was it President Tinubu that allowed the Almajiri system to derail, so that instead of gaining a Quranic education, little boys between the ages of 4 and 12, Primary School age, now fill the streets begging on behalf of their Malams? This is certainly not what Sardauna laid the foundation for. Interestingly, the Military budgeted more for education – about 11%; and since 1999, this dropped to about 7%.

The other day, I watched an interview of Babachir Lawal, a Promoter of ADC, and I was appalled with his statement that the North was worse off because of President Tinubu. It is time to share some bitter truths. When President Buhari came into power, didn’t prices skyrocket, even though the fuel subsidy was still firmly in place? Did insurgency in the North and insecurity generally, not deepen and thrive during the Buhari administration? Why didn’t the Northern Politicians/elite complain when Nigeria became the poverty capital of the world in 2018, under President Buhari’s watch? Because President Buhari was a Northerner and some of them were part of that administration’s failures? Is this not hypocrisy?

But, let’s put Mr Lawal’s statement into perspective. The reason why many blame President Tinubu for the people’s suffering, is because he removed the fuel subsidy which had a serious inflationary effect. Did the three main Presidential candidates in the 2023 election, not undertake  to remove the fuel subsidy if elected into office? They did.

The gains from the subsidy removal have been passed on to the States, in terms of the Federal Government giving the Governors higher monthly allocations. It is therefore, time to hold Governors accountable. What are they doing with their increased allocations? Why hasn’t it trickled down to the people? Why haven’t  they used the gains, to alleviate the sufferings of their people? Provide them with cheaper transportation, invest in securing the environment, help Farmers with fertilisers and other farming aids, help Herders with land for ranching and the like?

Conclusion

Nigerians must look beyond the politics of division, hatred and bitterness that Politicians are spewing to take advantage of the voters, and insist on politics of policies instead. Northern Politicians should stop buck passing, even lying outright, and do the honourable thing by accepting that they failed the North and undertake to do better.. While I’m not saying that the Tinubu administration is the best thing after sliced bread (because it isn’t), we must demand more from those who want to lead us – whether incumbent or aspiring – a coherent road map to get us out of trouble, and heading in the right direction. Pointing out problems and issues that even a 5 year old child is aware of, without proffering any solutions, is neither acceptable, nor is it enough ground for anybody to be elected. Nigerians deserve more. The story continues…..