The Threatening Relapse into One-party State

A bizarre wave of defections is effectively turning Nigeria to a de-facto one-party state. Vincent Obia writes

In a curious admission of something “terrible” in the polity, during his Democracy Day address on June 12, President Bola Tinubu acknowledged widespread fears about Nigeria’s tilt towards a one-party state on his watch.

But Tinubu elected the same contradiction to which most governments in these parts seem prone. He explained away the anomaly as part of “the game”.

Employing his oft-iterated description of the opposition parties as “a sinking ship”, he taunted them, “It is, indeed, a pleasure to witness you in such disarray.”

Tinubu’s words represented an admission of an oddity that no one could ignore.

Nigeria is sliding to a one-party state. The evidence is everywhere, with the gale of defections and political capitulations across the country.

Though, Tinubu insisted, “A one-party state is not in the offing.”  

But in one of the latest twists in the ongoing wave of political capitulations, Rivers State Governor SiminalayiFubara has given his supporters notice of a decision to not only stop resisting attempts to turn his government to a marionette remotely controlled by the whims of a godfather, but also to stop any demand for political independence.

There was hopelessness and frustration in his tone as he announced the climb-down on May 29 during a meeting in Port Harcourt with leaders and stakeholders of his Simplified Movement. The meeting was part of activities marking his two years in office as governor.

Fubara was sworn in on May 29, 2023 as governor of the oil-rich state. But he has had his powers and duties suspended since March 18, 2025 in a culmination of events following his insistence on his rights and privileges as a state governor.

But in apparent retreat, Fubara feted Tinubu for declaring the emergency rule that swept him from power, a presidential proclamation many in the state and the country, generally, condemned as draconian.

He thanked Tinubu “for his timely intervention to salvage the situation, and stabilise the polity and the state,” saying, “If not for Mr President, the story today would have been different.

“I don’t know how he gets his information, but the truth is that he acted with wisdom at the right time.”

The governor told the gathering of followers regarding Tinubu, “He is the one you should thank. And let me also thank him personally for his intervention, and the personalities across the country, who moved in and appealed to him to intervene.

“We have to come down from our high horses and subject ourselves to the peace process.”

Fubara also walked back his pushback against Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), NyesomWike, assuring of reconciliation with his “Oga,” and claiming he is doing everything in the interest of Rivers State.

Fubara’s erstwhile godfather, Wike, a nascent Tinubu ally, is behind the whole hullabaloo in Rivers State.

The word on the street is that Wike is strategically being used by Tinubu to try to secure the state’s votes in the 2027 presidential election. And he is being compensated with a freehand to ride roughshod over the state and dispense with anyone or anything that gets in the way of his passionate political preoccupation, including the governor, many believe.

There is a strong feeling in political circles that Fubara is being pressured into defecting to All Progressives Congress (APC), from Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), as a condition for regaining his position at the expiration of his six-month suspension.

Rivers State is only one in a wave of political apostasy sweeping across Nigeria, and knocking down even the most revered of democracy’s pillars. 

On June 6, AkwaIbom State Governor UmoEno formally announced his defection from PDP to APC, in what he called a “defining moment” following three months of consultation.

Eno was not categorical on his reason for the move. He stated, “We must be able to interpret the times, and flow with the times, and not run against the tide. Having completed the rounds of my consultation, I have, therefore, decided to progressively move to the All Progressives Congress.”

About two months before, in April, the governor had likened PDP to a faulty aircraft, saying it is too fragmented to provide a proper vehicle for the 2027 election.

“We believe that what is happening and the state of the PDP is akin to that palm wine whose taste has changed and there was a need for us to change the drinking pattern,” he claimed.

Eno followed in the steps of Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, who dumped PDP for APC in April with the entire political structure of the PDP state, from local government to national.

Across the country, the story is the same.

Nigeria is slipping to a one-party state, and every defector to the ruling party is citing “fragmentation”, “division”, and the like as their reason. The president called the opposition “a sinking ship.” But they fail to explain their role in the instigation and escalation of the crises suddenly plaguing all the major opposition parties. Which seems to imply that internal crises in opposition political parties are being orchestrated to provide a basis for desertion.

The ruling party has been accused of complicity in the crisis plaguing the major opposition parties, PDP and Labour Party (LP).

APC National Secretary, Dr. AjibolaBasiru, defended such involvement as a legitimate art of politics. Basiru dismissed those criticising the ruling party as merely engaging in “beer parlour gossip”.

He said recently, “Would there be anything wrong in you seeking to undermine your enemy? Democracy is about competition, so anything you need to do to ensure you become competitive, you must also be able to do so.”

APC National Chairman, AbdullahiGanduje, spoke in a similar vein, saying there is nothing wrong in having a one-party system in Nigeria. Ganduje cited the Chinese example.

He spoke when he led to Tinubu the three senators from Kebbi State – AdamuAliero, YahayaAdbullahi, and GarubaMaidoki – who moved to APC, from PDP.

“If a one-party state is a wish and blessing to Nigeria… a one-party state is not by force,” Abdullahi said.

The current slide to one-party system is certainly not by design, it is clearly by subterfuge.

Defection is not strange to Nigerian politics. What is bizarre is that the Tinubu era is debuting a virulent variant of decamping that is compromising everything democracy stands for, echoing something like, “If you cannot join us, resign from politics” – altering the more popular, yet dangerous, “If you cannot beat them, join them.”

Human rights activist and Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN), Mike Ozekhome, calls the gale of defections “bootlicking at its highest level”.   

Professor MojubaoluOkome, professor of political science at City University of New York, USA, believes the opposition is being forced into oblivion through sundry machinations by the ruling party.

Many believe APC is using state resources to swell its ranks by hook or crook.

Okome says, “One-party state is dangerous. In order to make a one-party state work, considerable state constraints will be put on those who disagree.”

She adds, “Scholars of democratisation always celebrate when another party wins election, and when there is a rotation in terms of how elections are won.

“Now when everybody jumps on the bandwagon of the ruling party and says they are now APC, I think it is dangerous.”

But Tinubu and APC are celebrating the bandwagoning, doing everything in their power to encourage it.

Typically, in a one-party system, a single political party holds all political power, though there may be other parties, which are basically emasculated. This comes about through an assortment of factors, including legal tools, use of force and intimidation, propaganda warfare aimed at creating a sense of group loyalty, clientelism, cultural checks, and control over economic resources.

Those conditions not only exist in unusually growing degrees in Nigeria currently, but there is also a fierce pro-APC polemic rationalising the descent to a single party profile.

Addressing the APC Renewed Hope Agenda Summit, held in Abuja last month, Tinubu said, in response to the rising fears about a one-party state, “A one-party system is not suitable for democracy. We are one party ruling and carrying on with the aspirations of Nigerians.

“You don’t expect people to remain in a sinking ship without a life jacket. I am happy with what we have accomplished and expecting more people to come; that’s the game.”

Tinubu reiterated that line in his Democracy Day speech at the National Assembly on June 12.

Classical economics defines development as growth plus positive change. But the Tinubu government has continued to award itself a curious pass mark, despite mounting hardship and poverty occasioned by rising inflation, insecurity, corruption, and poor governance. 

World Bank’s 2025 Poverty and Equity Brief indicated a huge rise in poverty in Nigeria, with 75.5 per cent of rural dwellers and 41.3 per cent of urban dwellers living below the poverty line (calculated at $2.15 a day).

Okome says, “This is an indication that an oligarchy is in control. Oligarchies and democracies are contradictory. The oligarchy is only interested in the advantages that accrue to its very small percentage of the population.

“If you look at Nigeria, while all these admirable machinations are going on, the number of our multidimensional poor Nigerians is increasing.”

She says, “We need to be concerned, because when you have one party dominance, that party does not have to listen to what the electorate is saying, it doesn’t have to be concerned about issues that go beyond its narrow circle of people who belong.”

The legislature, which ought to act as watchdog over the executive, has been reduced to a pack of impotent poodles, only whining occasionally, when their personal interests are hurt, but lacking the will to act in any responsible manner for the general interest.

President of the Senate and chairman of the National Assembly, Senator GodswillAkpabio, insisted on June 10, during the commissioning of the newly renovated International Conference Centre (ICC) in Abuja, that Tinubu was transforming Nigeria, whatever the people might think.

“Whether people like it or not,” Akpabio told Tinubu at the event, “The Nigerian parliament is very proud of you.”

Ozekhome says Nigeria is “gradually driving towards a one-party state”.

He states, “In a one-party state, dictatorship reigns supreme. Everybody will agree. National Assembly pocketed, judiciary will be pocketed, and everybody will be saying ‘yes, yes, yes’.”  Exactly the sound of music coming from across the country.

Political strategists in Aso Rock tend to assume that the only way to retain power and deal effectively with the 2027 challenge is to obliterate the opposition. But the dangers are incalculable.

As the country counts down to another general election, many fear that the anti-democratic tendencies may increase. With this, the choice for the citizenry may just be between greater inclination to capitulate and “retreat inwardly” into political apathy, and “challenging their aggressors” with a huger recourse to self-help.

Both options are bad for democracy.