Mr. Donald John Trump, a 70-year old American businessman, officially nominated the flag bearer of the Republican Party in Cleveland, was elected on November 8, 2016 and inaugurated as the 45th President of the currently most powerful country in the world, the United States of America on January 20, 2017.
From the perspective of the Wikipedia, at the age of 70, Donald Trump is ‘the oldest and wealthiest person to assume the presidency, the first without prior military or governmental service, and the fifth elected with less than a plurality of the national popularity.’ Other sources have it that Donald Trump is the 324th wealthiest in the world and the 113th wealthiest in the United States with 4.5 billion US dollars. In this regard, how do we understand his election as the fifth person with less than a plurality of the national popularity?
As noted by the Cable Network News (CNN), the approval rating as at the time of inauguration of President Bill Clinton in 1992 was 67%, compared with 61% for George Bush in 2001, 84% for Barack Obama in 2009 and 40% for Donald Trump in 2017. Thus, Donald Trump has the least approval rating in recent times. Why is this so? How do we explain the fact that he cannot even have 50% of approval rating? How do we explain the fact that Donald Trump was elected on the basis of majority votes of the electoral college and yet, his approval rating as at the time of inauguration is not reflective of the majority votes?
In this regard, various press speculations have it that the January 20, 2017 inauguration might not go the traditional way: big fanfare, big attendance, etc. Elisabeth Bumiller, the New York Times Washington Bureau Chief has said that ‘certainly the city is a lot quieter than it was in 2009 and 2013, at least at this point… An inauguration of a president is always historic.’ About 1.8 million people attended the 2009 Obama’s inauguration while only 800,000 or less were expected on January 20, 2017. Why such a sharp decline of more than 50%? Why should there be violent public demonstrations against the inauguration? More than 95 demonstrators had been arrested as at the time of writing this column few blocks to the parade route. Why should this be so?
Many factors are responsible. First, Donald Trump cannot lay any good claim to legitimacy from the true majority of Americans. In other words, who elected Donald trump? Was he elected by majority of Americans or by the minority of Russians? Should Donald Trump be considered an American president or a Russian president by virtue of Russia’s hacking of the 2016 US presidential election?
Secondly, there is the factor of behavioural diplomacy of Donald Trump which is not consistent with international civilisation. Donald Trump’s foreign policy is moving in an anti-clockwise direction, in such a way that he is working towards a new global order in a unilateral and manu militari fashion. His attitudinal disposition is belligerent. His foreign policy declarations are revisionist and protectionist, and reportedly, aimed at making America great again. And perhaps more disturbingly, he is fanning the embers of a new Cold War in a catalytic manner.
Thirdly and most importantly, Donald Trump wants to behave as an American president, but with a Russian blood running in, and cerebral thrombosis blocking, his capillaries and veins. Donald Trump has the option to act as a Russian or as an American but not as both at the same time as he appears to have become holier than the Pope by being in the forefront defending Russian policies more than the Russians. He does not even believe in his own intelligence community with ease. He is eccentrically arrogant and anti-immigrants, particularly Black people.
Is it a shame or a pride, for President Vladimir Putin of Russia to have commended the US president, Donald John Trump Snr., for running after the best prostitutes in the world, who happen to be Russians (CNN reports of Wednesday, 18th January, 2017). In other words, have the Americans elected a president who does not have the word ‘moralism’ in his dictionary? If Donald Trump is a client of prostitutes, is he too not a prostitute? If Russian prostitutes constitute a factor of rapprochement between the United States and Russia, how far can this type of relationship go at the level of official diplomacy?
All these factors are not what the true Americans voted for, and therefore, Donald Trump cannot but be a Russian president that Americans will never have in the immediate and long run. Russian and American interests are not the same and, of course, they do conflict necessarily. Consequently, it is most unlikely that Americans will accept the promotion of Russian interests to the detriment of those of the United States by Donald Trump. This is why great emphasis should be placed on the administration of Donald Trump, especially in terms of its implications for Africa, in general, and Nigeria, in particular.
Donald Trump and Africa
Generally, US foreign policy under Donald Trump is likely to negate what Barack Obama did, especially in terms of restoration of US engagements in global affairs. As noted by Michael Rhodes, who is generally considered as one of the most trusted aides of Obama, the summary of the legacy of the eight-year tenure of President Obama is ‘engagement: ‘we’ve engaged diplomatically around the world. We’ve engaged former adversaries. We’ve engaged publics. We’ve sought to work through multilateral coalitions and institutions with the purpose of repositioning the United States to lead,’ especially following the erosion of US leadership after the Iraqi war and the financial crisis.
The engagements included the 2011 military air campaign over Libya leading to the removal of Muammar Gaddafi; the aborted plan, as a result of political resistance and Russian intervention, of Barack Obama in late summer of 2013 to carry out airstrikes against President Bashar Assad of Syria allegedly for using or moving chemical weapons; restoration of diplomatic ties with Cuba in 2015 after 54 years of political lull; and the Iranian nuclear deal.
These engagements generally have bilateral and multilateral character and do not have much to do with Africa which cannot be said to be a priority for the Obama administration. In other words, Africa is not a major component issue of Barack Obama’s foreign policy legacy. However, President Obama is behaviourally predictable. His foreign policy direction also is.
On the contrary, Donald Trump’s policy attitude towards Africa cannot but be unpredictable at best for many reasons. First, Donald Trump himself made it clear that he is not predictable. As he put it: ‘no one is going to touch us, because I’m so unpredictable.’ but why is he not predictable? What are the factors of predictability and non-predictability?
Secondly, Donald Trump admits that he ‘says things that are politically incorrect, because the country (the United States) does not have time to waste with political correctness.’ By implication, Donald Trump is giving the impression that he is consciously saying things that are incorrect politically. If we admit of this interpretation, then, to a great extent, he is quite predictable, 50-50.
Thirdly, Donald Trump has declared that on the very first day of assumption of duty in the White House, he would not only get rid of gun-free zones at military bases and in schools, but also terminate Obama’s executive orders relating to immigration, as well as getting rid of ‘sanctuary cities,’ which from the viewpoint of President Trump, have become a refuge for criminals.
If we take January 20 as a ceremonial day for handover of power, and therefore not the first working day, we can also admit that yesterday, Saturday 21st, was the last day of the weekend, implying that today is therefore the first, but non-working day of the week. An official policy pronouncement on gun-free zones and termination of immigration-related executive orders is expected. This has not been so. Tomorrow, 23rd January, there should be a policy direction on the two issues. But, in the absence of any policy pronouncement on these two issues of gun-free zones and immigration, then Donald Trump’s declaration can only reflect his person as one without integrity and iota of goodness.
Regarding other policies he promised to adopt as President of the US, they may also not be a big deal in terms of fulfilment, and particularly in terms of approach and implications for Nigeria and Africa. Let us take the case of terrorism for example. Donald Trump wants to allow Russia to deal with the Islamic State in Syria. In the alternative, he wants to work directly with the Russian president ‘to wipe out shared enemies.’ What is the manner of this wiping out? It is by bombing ‘oil fields controlled by the Islamic State’ and then seizing ‘the oil and giving the profits to military veterans who were wounded while fighting.’ More interestingly but unfortunately, the approach is also about targeting and killing the relatives of terrorists. Why should the relatives of terrorists be killed if they are not accomplices or accessories? Does belonging to a family in which there is a terrorist? In Nigeria, there are many reported cases of parents reporting their children to the law enforcement agencies for acts of dismeanor.
Additionally, Donald Trump wants to shut down parts of the internet to prevent the recruitment of American youths for purposes of terrorism. In fact, ‘water-boarding’ is what he has prescribed for the containment of terrorism. The Oxford Dictionary has it that water-boarding is ‘the interrogation technique simulating the experience of drowning, in which a person is strapped head downwards on a slopping board or bench with the mouth and nose covered while large quantities of water are poured over the face.’ On the basis of this, can terrorism be really nipped in the bud effectively?
Again, can terrorism be ever stopped with Donald Trump’s statement on the Chinese? He said: ‘rather than throw the Chinese president a state dinner, buy him “a McDonald’s hamburger and say we’ve got to get down to work.” To what extent can this type of mockery help the development of better entente at the bilateral level? Donald Trump says he wants to bring jobs back from China. He even sees China’s power as aggressive.
For Trump, China is a currency manipulator, who adopts a ‘zero tolerance policy on intellectual property theft and forces technology transfer.’ In fact, Donald Trump has a policy of national protectionism and non-globalisation while China is interested in globalisation and free trade. In fact, Donald Trump does not believe that there has been any free and fair trade anywhere and, therefore, he is pushing for no free trade but fair trade. Nigeria’s policy stand is not about choice: she does not only want a free trade but also a fair one.
Another area of likely difficulty in Nigeria-US bilateral relations under Donald Trump is how to interpret the principle of self-determination and Brexit in international relations. Donald Trump is preaching the gospel of self-determination and he also supports the spirit Brexit. The Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) is much happy about this policy disposition. As a result, the IPOB is expecting that Donald Trump cannot but give support to the goals of the IPOB, hence its support and public celebrations of his election and inauguration.
In this regard, can Donald Trump afford the luxury of promoting disintegration in Nigeria without compromising US strategic interests, particularly in Nigeria and generally in Africa? No matter the nature of Donald Trump’s phobia for Nigeria and Nigerians, he cannot, because, no one can be more correct than President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe who said that ‘Africa without Nigeria is hollow.’ In whichever way it is looked at, Nigeria cannot but be the power house of Africa, and therefore, any attempt to ignore Nigeria’s position can only have unintended consequences.
Donald Trump strongly believes that ‘the United States is too weak. It looks like a paper tiger.’ Consequently, there is the need to make America great again. There is the need to bring back the American dream and spirit. But what does this mean? What is the American spirit or dream that had been lost and that has to be brought back? One way of seeking explanations to the questions is to take a closer look at the foreign policy agenda as espoused by Donald Trump at the external level and his policy pronouncements at the internal level.
At the domestic level, for instance, he wants to put an end to the birthright citizenship; reduce the $18 trillion national debt by ‘vigorously eliminating waste, fraud and abuse in the federal government, ending redundant government programs and growing the economy to increase tax revenues’; impose a new tax regime ranging from 32% to 35% and grow the economy by 6%; get rid of gun-free zones at military bases and schools; promulgate death penalty for whoever kills a US policeman; ensures that the president of the Ford Motor Company cancels plans to build a massive plant in Mexico if the company is not to face a 35% tax on cars imported back into the United States.
At the international level, Donald Trump has dreamt of building a ‘Trump Wall,’ which will be a barrier between the United States and Mexico, the costs of which are to be paid for by Mexico. He also wants to place a temporary ban on most foreign Muslims from entering the United States. He also wants to bar Syrian refugees from entering the United States, as well as kick out those of them already living in the country.
More interestingly, Donald Trump wants to put heavy surveillance on mosques and close down some bases of Syrian refugees; stop spending money on space exploration until the United States can fix its potholes, but this should not prevent giving active support to private space exploration companies to expand; and most importantly, Donald Trump wants to strengthen the US military so that it is ‘so big and so strong and so great that ‘nobody is going to mess with us.’
The foregoing is a pointer to the attitudinal disposition of President Donald Trump in international relations. How should Nigeria respond to this Donald Trump phenomenon bilaterally and multilaterally?
Preventing an End to a New Beginning
Nigeria’s relationship with the United States under President Donald Trump is a new beginning that can be good or bad depending on how it is taken. First, it should be borne in mind that the national interests of Nigeria and the United States are not necessarily the same. The interests have to be reconciled first before the relationship can be worked on and improved. Secondly, Donald Trump’s campaign issues are more multilateral in nature than bilateral, meaning that countries like Nigeria may not attract priority attention. Put differently, this means that US foreign policy calculations are likely to underscore more of multilateral than bilateral questions in its relations with the world.
In this regard, Donald Trump does not buy into free trade but Nigeria does. Donald Trump has problems with the World Trade Organisation and wants a renegotiation of the international trade agreements. There is also the European Union Economic Partnership Agreements which were negotiated and done on the basis of globalisation and free trade. Donald Trump is against globalisation. He is in favour of fair trade. Donald Trump has quarrels with China but Nigeria does not. As it is today, China is quite friendlier with Nigeria than the United States is. Donald Trump supports Brexit but Nigeria does not want its application in Nigeria.
In fact, the presidency of Donald Trump has a great potential to fast track the emerging Cold War. A new Cold War cannot but encourage the sale of arms to the conflict areas, especially in tiny The Gambia if care is not taken. This is why Nigeria will need to tread more carefully in regional peace support operations, especially in light of the American and UN support for the use of force by the ECOWAS, in dealing with the crisis in The Gambia, which is much likely to be turned into a battleground and also used to test new weapons.
Consequently, there is no need to evolve a policy stand on what is yet to be made clear as foreign policy attitude towards Nigeria or Africa. The fact that, at the inauguration, Donald Trump specially recognised the active presence of former President Bill and Mrs. Hilary, Clinton, the mere fact that in the prayers of the chaplain of the White House, a request was specially made to God to kindly give a discerning mind to Donald Trump to enable him differentiate between what is good and what is not and for God to assist Donald Trump to do only what is good, and most importantly, the fact that Donald Trump concluded in his remarks that both democrats and republicans have common national development objectives, and therefore his calling for a collective approach to the challenges with which all Americans are faced, clearly show that the new president is now beginning to see more clearly than ever before.
This clairvoyance, however, is not enough to suggest the removal of anti-black tendencies of Donald Trump which Nigeria has the constitutional right to fight unconditionally. It is by ensuring that black dignity is protected and respected that an end to the beginning of a Nigeria-United States can be objectively prevented.
