Overcoming Post-election Scenarios
Amid perennial fears of untoward post-election occurrences, experts at a forum in Lagos recommend for businesses a culture of deliberate visualisation and planning against possible circumstances. Vincent Obia reports
In Nigeria at this time, everyone is probably worried about two things: the performance of their candidates at the coming elections and reaction to the outcome of the polls. This is a natural tendency among Nigerians on the eve of elections. Policymakers at various levels seem to take note of the prevailing disposition, but they do not appear to have effective strategies for dealing with the post-election apprehensions. Developing such strategies was the subject of discussion on February 2 in Lagos, when Nigeria’s premier government relations consultancy outfit, GT Pro, held its first “Conversation Series”.
The keynote speaker, Bolarinwa Onaolapo, an environment and social governance expert, gave a good account of himself in dealing exhaustively with the theme for the discussion, “Post-Election Scenario Assessment and Possible Political Risks: How Businesses Can Mitigate It.”
The forum discussed crucial factors in post-election scenario assessment, including need for scenario planning, scenario analysis, driving forces for actions, institutional issues, development of a resilience culture, and business continuity and emergency framework.
Onaolapo set the tone with the correction of a common misconception about post-elections issues, saying, “Scenarios are not about predictions – but consideration of possibilities. Scenarios are description of possible actions or events in the future. They offer diverse possibilities that are not constrained by history or experience.”
In the course of preparation for the forthcoming elections in Nigeria, political pundits have predicted different outcomes. But the end result of the polls remains unknown.
Onaolapo says it is from such state of uncertainty that scenarios derive their power.
Events in the election season often proceed from antecedents created by an interplay of economic and social forces, which sometimes follow a predictable pattern. The patterns may, however, end in different outcomes. This shift in outcome, which often transcends history or experience, is what scenarios help to identify and deal with, according to Onaolapo.
He believes scenarios are intricately connected with risk assessment, as they can transform to probabilities.
“Knowledge of impact of these probable events is critical for business short or long term viability,” Onaolapo says.
In Nigeria, understandable anxieties have preceded the general election billed for February and March. Besides the anxiety regarding the outcome of the polls, citizens and investors in the Nigerian economy have faced uncertainties concerning the colour of events in the election season and the effect on their plans and expectations.
Onaolapo identifies the possible political risks to business to include effect on their operations, logistics impairment, supply chain disruptions, safety of staff, and energy supply and IT disruptions. Others are revenue decline, market access troubles, bank closure, drop in demand, force majeure, attack on facilities, and reputational burdens.
He categorises the driving forces for actions during election seasons into political, social, and economic factors. The political factors include sentiments provoked by the utterances of candidates, same faith succession, and absence of the incumbent, President Muhammadu Buhari, from the ballot.
The social factors include ethnic division and increased youth awareness in the aftermath of #EndSARS. Obviously, the Nigerian youth are emerging as a strong voting bloc, mostly blind to ethnic prejudices and focused on values. This can be gleaned from the latest figures of registrants at the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
Insecurity is another key social force ahead of the 2023 general election. Personal safety has been severely undermined by rampant kidnap for ransom, attacks on train stations and moving trains, and abduction of school children, all of which seem to be settling into a nationwide phenomenon.
Add the above to the menace of unknown gunmen in the South-east, rampaging armed bandits in the North-west, and killer herdsmen in the North-central, and what do you get, a poll season threatened by a terrible gale of insecurity.
On the economic scene, there is the issue of excruciating living condition of many Nigerians, involving inflation, currency depreciation, and high cost of living. The dire economic conditions have been worsened lately by fuel scarcity, currency redesign by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the ensuing cash withdrawal difficulties faced by ordinary citizens.
The incumbent government and the political party in power are generally blamed for the growing hardship, and this may likely lead to loss of votes at the poll.
Onaolapo identifies institutional barriers and systems, saying, “These are social, physical or governance structures, systems and processes that have been established to prevent or mitigate an occurrence or reinforce an attribute of the society.” They include law enforcement, election management system, judiciary, and information management. He says these systems may be termed fragile, resilient, or broken based on the outcome of their interactions with the driving political, social and economic forces.
He captures the “alternative scenarios” likely to emerge from the above interactions with the literary works of three renowned African writers – The Beautyful Ones Are Not Yet Born (by Ghanaian novelist Ayi Kwei Armah), The Gods Are Not to Blame (by Nigerian playwright Ola Rotimi), and Season of Anomy (by Nigeria’s Wole Soyinka).
He pictures a situation where the citizens would be wearied by cliché-ridden promises, battles, and failed promises of politicians, and then become despondent, and turn to political apathy. Furthermore, here, the institutional barriers are not compromised by the driving forces and are able to quickly contain tendencies towards violence. But post-election suspense is heightened by poll litigations. These situations denote a general loss of faith in the system – The Beautyful Ones Are Not Yet Born. A second scenario, according to Onaolapo, is where the electorate are frustrated and angered by pre-existing adverse conditions, and then decide to turn out in large numbers across the country to vote against the ruling party. But the votes against the ruling party may be divided by the opposition in key battleground states, paving the way for the ruling party to have a clear majority.
The discontent about the poll outcome from majority of citizens may create an overwhelming pressure on the institutional barriers and systems, including law enforcement, which may, however, be moderated by the statesmanship of opposition figures and the judicial process. The Gods Are Not to Blame!
A third scenario is when pre-existing conditions generate pressure on institutional barriers and systems, producing high and low voter turn-out of voters at different locations on election day. Here majority of the votes would vote against the ruling party, thereby strengthening previously unknown parties and candidate to challenge established parties in key battleground states.
Under the third scenario also, established parties may lose ground to third party candidates, leading to new alliances emerge across the political landscape with ethnic colourations. Rerun election may produce victory for certain candidates, while tensions drag on as results are challenged in court.
Here the Supreme Court may upturn election results with unprecedented decisions, and heighten agitations for secession.
As the situation deteriorates, “The international community and institutions with moral authority wades in and a new president is sworn in to preside over a badly fractured and fragile country,” Onaolapo pictured.
Those are the three post-2023 election scenarios identified by the speaker.
To effectively respond to the various scenarios, Onaolapo says businesses must develop resilience strategies, involving “Business Continuity Plans” and “Emergency Response Plan.”
He recommends a culture of vigilance, which helps to build increasing resilience. Onaolapo sees advance planning and preparedness as the path to survival and prosperity for businesses in times like these.
