THE CHALLENGE BEFORE ATIKU AND TINUBU 

JOSEF OMOROTIONMWAN projects how Northerners may treat Tinubu’s aspiration 

Following the 2019 Presidential Election, I predicted that the 2023 contest would be a straight fight between former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, and the All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.I also proceeded to argue that for all we know, to the average Northerner, there is no difference between the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the ruling APC. It was, therefore, clear to us then that the same forces that helped President Muhammadu Buhari in 2019, would also help in Atiku in 2023. Consequently, Tinubu would be thoroughly beaten. 

Forty months on, what has changed in this direction? Nothing, absolutely nothing! 

The 13 Daniels of the North came to judgment. They were wiser than the rest of us. In fact, for that master stroke, they deserve a medal, a gold medal for that matter. They stepped in to save the soul of the APC for their future use. If the primaries had gone the way the Buharists wanted it – Northern candidates for both the APC and PDP, the APC by now would have scattered into several unrecognizable pieces. All that was required was for Jagaban to pull out of the APC and the party would be lying prostate – gone forever! 

They reckoned, and correctly so, that it would be better to give Tinubu that pyrrhic victory at the primaries and then ambush him at the main election. In other words, let him continue to win the battle and lose the war. He will not claim they did not help him. 

If you want to be reminded of how the Northerners are focused on the agenda of a Northern President, you only need to think back at the speed with which Governor Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto State stepped down for former Vice President Atiku Abubakar at the PDP primaries. That was a speed directed from outside the arena of the primaries, and if he had waited for five minutes, Governor Nyesom Wike would have clinched the victory. 

By their reckoning, Atiku is the next President of Nigeria. At the appropriate time, the Northern Daniels will still come to judgment by telling their people where to fix their thumbprints! 

The only annoying thing, though, is the impunity with which these people are doing what they have always done. So early, they have dispatched emissaries to continue to spread the results of the coming election. They are all over the place. In his venom titled ‘Fulanis own Nigeria’, Usman Umar Sokoto sums it up most succinctly, “…presidency goes to another Fulani in PDP who will rule for eight years.” 

Who will ever cure the Nigerian politicians’ propensity to introduce fatal distractions into their own trade? They agree openly with the rest of the civilized world the choice of a running mate is the exclusive preserve of the candidate, but they quickly turn around and want to choose the running mate for him. See how the League of PDP Governors turned themselves into a trade union for the purpose of giving Atiku a running mate. He picked Governor Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta. But by the reckoning of the League, he should have picked Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers. 

Compatibility was thrown to the winds. But in Atiku’s estimation, those who want to pocket a small snake out of kindness, will soon know that there are limits to kindness. And in the core Igbo land, who can beat Okowa’s reach across Delta, Edo and many other states? None! Remove ‘gra-gra’ from the whole thing, and you will find that Okowa is a most perfect feat for the job! 

Again, the impression is given that most of the aspirants were not running to win. Ordinarily, a serious contestant would, from the very beginning, have an idea of who his or her running mate would be, if he or she won at the primaries. As a way of getting out of the awaiting-running-mate syndrome, may be, we should ask every aspirant to give an indication of who would be his or her running mate on the nomination form.   

In the particular case of Tinubu, the push has started. In local parlance, what will kill a dog, does not smell to it. In spite of the stiff opposition that greeted the initial idea of a Muslim-Muslim ticket, the Northern Daniels have now baited Tinubu into the obvious misadventure of flying one. Unfortunate! 

Is it not a height of naivety to think that with a proper electronic transmission of results direct from the polling units, you still expect to heave those humongous figures from a war-torn region as you did in 2019? Haba! Evidently, they are now pushing him down the dark alley. Not only does this obnoxious idea of a Muslim-Muslim ticket offend the collective sensibilities of Nigerian Christians, it is also the very albatross of Tinubu himself! 

Even for Atiku, it is not yet Uhuru. We cannot now confidently advise him to go and dry-clean his best babariga, preparatory to his inauguration because of the facts on ground. For sure, the Peter Obi Revolution is not a term in the abstraction. It is real! This will be the topic for our next outing. 

 Omorotionmwan wrote from Canada