Nigeria’s population is exploding while its economy is shrinking. Which is why financial figures released this week make such scary reading. Forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predict economic growth in Nigeria to be just a third of the global figure for 2021.
And statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics showed a 61% year-on-year decline in foreign money flowing in Nigeria.
This means fewer and fewer international customers for Nigerian businesses, and crucially, fewer and fewer investment capital for Nigerian companies.
International businesses and investors spent $2.8bn in Nigeria in the first half of 2021. In the first half of 2020 this figure was $7.2bn.
Of these figures, foreign direct investment – overseas companies setting up in Nigeria – fell 36% year on year. The World Bank has also estimated that foreign investment in Nigeria is down 80% in recent times. Foreign portfolio investments – the purchase of Nigerian securities or other assets fell from $4.7bn to $1.5bn in a single year – a drop of nearly 70%.
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic will have of course played a part, with many businesses across the globe practically mothballed for months.
But there is long-term systemic reason for the collapse of foreign investment in our nation. Nigeria does not appear to be safe for investment.
But we should be an unbeatable one. In population terms alone we offer overseas organisations one of the largest domestic markets on Earth. Then there is our vast human capital. We have ambition: Our young people are the most likely in all of Africa to have considered running for elected office. We are entrepreneurial: 71% of our young people have an idea for a business. We are innovative, having been described as “Africa’s most attractive tech hub for investors” and home to the most start-ups in Africa.
Just last year, consultants McKinsey reported that Nigeria’s Fintech sector has raised more than $600 million in funding between 2014 and 2019.
But if that funding dries up, how are the companies of tomorrow supposed to take their businesses to the next level, growing their international sales, workforces and – yes government – tax bills, which in turn will pay for better public health, education and infrastructure.
This investment is the lifeblood our future economy. But investors are increasingly looking elsewhere.
For a reason why they are doing that, we need look only to the recent research from pressure group YIAGA, who have suggested an astonishing $582bn has been lost to corruption in our nation since independence. Investors will not see a return on their investment when it is quite clear how much of it is likely to end up in the back pockets of the duplicitous, the dodgy and the dishonest.
We need to build international trust in Nigeria. And that battle begins at home. At the digital democracy campaign I lead we are looking to rebuild the relationship between government and governed using the power of social media.
We have created a free smartphone app called Rate Your Leader to bring elected officials closer to the people who elect them.
Rate Your Leader which connects verified political figures with verified voters in the divisions they serve, giving local people the kind of direct personal access only previously granted to the privileged few like lobbyists and party donors.
If you want to raise something with your local leader, you can. If you want to ask them a question, you can. If you want to put forward an idea to make your community better, you can.
Apps like Rate Your Leader show how transparent, responsive and accessible political leaders can be, which builds wider trust in our political class and political system. Rate Your Leader also lets users rate local elected officials for openness and responsiveness, rewarding our most transparent and accessible politicians and highlighting their qualities to other voters.
The app also gives politicians a real-time insight into what matters most to the people who elect them – allowing them to take action, make changes and win the respect, trust and affection of the people they serve.
We are a nation held back by the notion that everyone else is only out for themselves – from the very top of the country down. This isn’t true.
But the idea is spreading to other nations too. And that is something that our economy simply cannot afford.
Joel Popoola is a Nigerian tech entrepreneur and digital democracy campaigner
