Consumer Confidence Index Down in Q1

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The Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) for the first quarter (Q1) 2018 showed that the overall outlook of consumers deteriorated in the quarter, as fewer consumers were optimistic in their outlook.

The report obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s website also showed that consumers however, had a positive outlook for this quarter and the next 12 months.

According to the survey, majority of consumers nationwide believed that the next 12 months would not be an ideal time to purchase big-ticket items like motor vehicle, among others.

Most respondents expected that naira will appreciate, while borrowing, inflation and unemployment rates will rise in the next 12 months.
The major drivers of the expected upward movement in prices were: Education, transportation, medical care, house rent, electricity and food & other household needs.

The CES for Q1 2018 was conducted during the period March 16 to 27, 2018, covering a sample size of 2,070 households drawn from 207 Enumeration Areas’ (EAs) across the country.
The overall response rate for the Q1 2018 CES was 83.5 per cent.

Respondents’ distribution by educational attainment showed that 17.7 per cent had university education, 16.6 per cent had higher non-university education, while 23.8 per cent had senior secondary school education.

Respondents with junior secondary and primary school education accounted for 6.4 and 17.2 per cent, respectively, while those with no formal education accounted for the balance of 18.3 per cent.
“The consumers’ overall confidence outlook worsened in Q1 2018, as fewer consumers were optimistic in their outlook.

“The index at -6.4 points was 23 points lower than the index in the corresponding period of 2017. Some respondents attributed this moderation in outlook to worsening economic condition and family financial situation.
“The consumer outlook for the next quarter and next 12 months were also positive at 20.8 and 28.5 points, respectively,” it explained.

This positive outlook was attributed to the expected increase in net household income, the anticipated improvement in Nigeria’s economic conditions, and expectations to save a bit or have plenty over savings in the next 12 months.

Furthermore, it showed that most respondents expect prices of goods and services to rise in the next 12 months with an index point of 16.2 points.
Also, the major drivers were: Education, transportation, medical care, house rent, electricity, and food and other household needs.

“The overall buying conditions index for consumers in the current quarter for big-ticket items stood at 34.3 points. This indicates that majority of consumers believed that the current quarter was not the ideal time to purchase big-ticket items like consumer durables, motor vehicles.
“With indices of 1.9 and 24.1 points, consumers expect borrowing rate to rise and Naira to appreciate in the next 12 months.

“The unemployment index for the next 12 months remained positive at 26.6 points in Q1 2018, indicating that majority of the consumers expect unemployment to rise in the next 12 months,” it added.