Immediate past Director General of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency in a valedictory interview enumerated the milestones achieved by the agency in the last 10 years and noted that now international and domestic airlines rely on the agency’s weather forecast. Chinedu Eze was there and brings the excerpts:
Can you give a summary of what you met on ground when you were appointed the Director General of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET), the challenges and what you were able to achieve at the end of your tenure?
Well, it was in 2007 that I got appointed as a DG for the first term for five years which was in 2007 to 2012. Of course, after the first term, I got reappointed for a second tenure, that is 2012 that ended this year. When I came on board, the first thing I did was to set up a plan to rebuild the infrastructure for weather prediction. Of course I was actually a director of applied meteorological services in NIMET from inception. Remember we were a department of the Ministry; that is, the Department of Meteorological Services in the Ministry up until 2003 when the Act setting up NIMET was passed into law and then signed by the then President Olusegun Obasanjo. So when I started, having done about five years or so as director, the problems were not strange to me at all. I was part of the setting up of the agency from inception; after we metamorphosed from department to parastatal. So the problems were a bit familiar. What were the problems? One was the problem of infrastructure and when I say infrastructure I am not talking just about buildings because we are a scientific organization so our house is an operational and a scientific organization. And so we had a problem of infrastructure; that is instruments and equipment for measurement of weather. And of course, I first of all did an assessment because at that time, from 2003 to 2007, I was not the boss, so I went back to the fundamental things.
Looking at the NIMET Act, our most fundamental work is to observe weather, record the data and issue weather forecast and predictions for all sectors of the economy. So I had to go back to that fundamental function of observing weather. To observe weather, we need our observatories, our synoptic stations. At that time I inherited 36 synoptic stations. So the very first thing I did was assessment of their capacities to do that fundamental job of observing the weather and recording data. When I did the assessment, which is in terms of instrument availability. In other words, we measure certain variables. What are the instruments for measuring them? Are they available in all the 36 stations? If they are available, are they functional? So when I conducted that survey, I found out something that was really shocking. What I found was that out of the 36 synoptic stations or weather observatories across the country, only four scored above 50 percent, the highest score was 64 percent and that was very, very worrisome. So we now set out to address that issue, get the synoptic stations working so that we can measure weather variables.
It may also interest you to know that in each synoptic station, there are 13 weather variables measured, each one is measured every hour of the day and in some cases every hour of the day at night; that is, for the 24 hours stations. So we got to work, we started to rebuild to make instruments available for weather observation. Having done that, we now went out to expand the number of stations and today we are leaving behind 54 weather observatories across the country. We not only reinforced them in terms of making instruments available; we also re-instrumented them as it were and also expanded the number. So, that is the first thing we did.
Two, we had challenges of manpower and personnel. The staff morale was generally low and the workers had no self-esteem. I am sorry to say this. Because when you come to the aviation parastatals they were looked down upon because their salaries were very poor, and you could see it in their dressing, the type of car they had for the few that even had cars. So I now took up the challenge of getting them better salary package and today we are enjoying relatively better salary package. The NIMET salary package was upgraded and better than what we have in the civil service.
Thirdly, to also increase staff morale and confidence, we had to re-train them, so we gave emphasis to training and re-training, with the result that within a short time, we were able to train and re-train many of our officers. Many of these trainings were done overseas. We contacted the factory that manufactured the instruments. Having conquered that; we also moved on to the issue of more hi-tech equipment because the one I told you about at the synopsis stations are basic instruments for measurement of operational purposes, like weather radar. Radar is sophisticated hi-tech equipment. We are able to procure six weather radars and were able to complete the installation of two in Port Harcourt and Abuja. We were working seriously to complete Yola and Maiduguri before the insurgency disturbed us and the Americans refused to come back for safety reasons.
Although we are going back to that; in fact, NIMET team had travelled to restart the process of getting them back to work to now finish up the other locations in addition to the two that are already functioning. Then there are other instruments such as the wind shear alert system. At the time we came in only Abuja airport had wind shear alert system, today we have 13 wind shear alert systems in the airports. The last times was in Katsina that was commissioned on the 7th or 8th of January 2017. There are upper air stations. When we came in there was only one upper air station in Abuja, even that one was a donation from the European Union under a research programme. Today we have increased the number of stations on upper air stations from one to eight. In fact, we are modernizing those installed automatic hydrogen gas generators there. In the past we did not have thunder storm detectors, but now we have 20 of them across the country. Integrated weather observing systems, we had none, today we have 14. The list can go on and on and on. These are the kind of things we have done in terms of hi-tech equipment. Air quality and Ozone monitoring equipment, it was zero, today we have five. Of course we have not talked about our weather research centre which everybody acclaims to be world class.
Have you entered the DG’s office? Have you visited the instrument calibration laboratory? Have you visited the central forecast office? Have you visited the weather studio? These are world class facilities, and the combination of all these is that our aeronautical weather service is ISO 9001certified. Now we are ramping up to a newer version of ISO certification that is ISO 9001, 2000, we have started the process and very soon we are going to get that. We now looked at capacity for training, because the fundamental job we do is weather observation. For you to do weather observation you need two years post secondary training at our MET school at Oshodi. Now if you go to the MET school at Oshodi, we have organized it with modern hostel and classroom facility there. The workshop and laboratories are world class; in fact somebody went there sometime and said even as a PhD student I didn’t get classroom facilities like these. We have done the hi-tech equipment like Doppler radar, wind shear alert system, upper air monitoring systems, instrument calibration laboratory and so on and so forth.
In terms of buildings, we have built modern classroom blocks with air conditionals with ICT room for students to use. The library including e-library facilities, at the national weather center we also built a computer center there, we have an ultra modern computer center. So it is quite huge what we have done. In 2011, we trained a total of 234 officers of the agency in various field and capacity building. In 2012, we had 420 trained, so this gives you an idea of what we are doing.
Looking at the investment on equipment and facilities, is there any hope of recouping the funds?
I will answer this question by quoting a statement often quoted by the World Meteorological Organisation, which is the authoritative organ for weather and climate issues. WMO has done an assessment and that assessment was done over 10 years ago, I said that for every one dollar we invest in building capacity for weather, climate services, the benefit is seven fold and I will tell you how. Remember I was careful to tell you that this assessment was done 10 years ago, now the issue of climate change with the attendant climate weather that is destructive is worse is today than what it was 10 years ago or 20 years ago when this assessment was done. If that assessment is done now the money you invest, if you invest some money in developing weather information to enable weather services provide early warning, such as the SRP we did today, it is huge, the amount of benefits you will reap. Imagine that using our Seasonal Rain Prediction (SRP), farmers are advised better on when to farm, imagine the huge losses in terms of crop failure, if you plant at the wrong time. You heard the man from Katsina State, the testimony he gave and there are many such stories. So by investing on all these money, we are now able to advise the farmer better and they make informed decision as to when to plant. They also make informed decision as to when to apply fertilizer, informed decision on how to avoid crop failure. So these are the benefits that we derive.
Coming to the aviation sector, to the glory of God, for the first 10 years, there is no single aviation accident or incident where weather is seen to be responsible. Where lack of weather information, or because we didn’t know there will be storm and we flew into storm, there is none. So these are all the benefits that we are getting. Now coming back to the raw economics of it, part of NIMET’s development programme and that is what I forgot to tell you. After sizing up all that conditions at the initial time, we drew up what we call five years strategic development plan of NIMET and that has guided everything we have been doing. From the five years strategic development plan we metamorphosed it or revised it to what we call NIMET (Impart/impact) plan. Part of NIMET impart plan is commercialization because revenue from government was drying up. So we needed to do something to generate revenue. So we have a well- structured commercialisation initiative. That is, we spread or diversify our revenue base.
Presently, the bulk or our revenue, probably 90 percent comes from what we get from aviation. And even what you are getting from aviation is meagre compared to other agencies. I will give you an example; we get part of the landing charges collected by FAAN, only 10 percent. The other one is on enroute and over flight charges. That one is collected on our behalf by the Nigerian Airspace Management Agency (NAMA). The third one is the ticket sales charge collected by the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA). Look at the meagre percentage compared to other agencies. So we cannot keep doing that, we said, okay, we can now venture into other sectors. We have the maritime sector. We said to ourselves, we have many ships coming in and out of Nigerian ports and they need weather report. Where are they getting weather information from? They are getting it from their home countries. So we have now started the process of having a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with NIMASA so that we can give weather information and forecast to shipping lines. We started it long ago, we have perfected the MoU, we were to sign it since January this year, but for one reason or another it hasn’t quite clicked. We are hoping that in the next few weeks NIMET will finalise that. It is a process we started even before I became the DG because it was under my purview as director of applied MET services to do marine weather services. So that was what we started long ago, so we are hoping that when that clicks, it opens up a new revenue stream for us.
So, with everything we are doing, apart from the other deliverables and benefits in terms of disaster risk reduction, in terms of prevention of reduction in crop losses, in terms of improving agricultural productivity, the naira and kobo side of it, is getting more revenue from maritime services. So we are hoping that we will break into that area. All these investments are therefore quite beneficial economically.
Pilots and airlines are urging government to equip NIMET so that they would be able to predict weather on hourly basis in order to reduce flight cancelation due to sudden bad weather. Is this possible?
The weather forecast we give to the aviation sector s in accordance to international standards. Don’t forget that aviation is probably one of the most regulated industries in the world. Our operations are as prescribed by the International Civil Aviation Authority (ICAO); we do our job in conformity with ICAO Standard and Recommended Practices (SRP). So whatever ICAO says we should do that is what we are doing. That is why we are able to earn our ISO 9001. In other words, you are doing it the way they said it should be done. Now on the issue of whether we can give weather prediction ahead, yes, of course. In addition to those forecasts, when there are impending adverse weather we give out the information with sufficient insight, at times up to 24 hours or 12 hours.
During the Christmas period in 2016, for instance; there were some days when the dust haze was really bad. It affected me personally. I wanted to travel on December 23; it didn’t work because of dust haze. I had to wait till 26 but the haze was still there so we didn’t travel. So I decided to hit the road to travel to the east. Because there are facilities for instance, the dust affecting us is generated in Niger and Chad, mainly from Niger and the air blows it south ward to us. We have facilities, satellite receiving stations to tell us when there is uptake of dust from Niger, now when there is that uptake from the wind trajectory and speed you can estimate when it will hit Maiduguri, Kano, or Katsina or Abuja. So, at times, this comes up to 12 time and we issue such alert. So apart from the forecast we issue weather alert as well.
Are you comfortable with the application or the usage of your weather forecast, because it is like there is a lot of ignorance apart from the aviation sector where there is a lot of experience and emergency and it is imperative, what about other sectors?
One of the things we had learnt over the years is how do people begin to believe us? How does the farmer begin to believe that you can tell him when the rains will start and it would start? How does the farmer believe that you can tell him if you plant now, your crops will die? So we have been singing that for a number of years. Gradually, of course, for us to make them believe us, we have to show them that it is correct. So you see here that now we’ve been able to achieve that level of accuracy, so people have that confidence. We go to WMO, WMO have 191 member states and territories. Of course I am a member of the executive council, 37 of us. That is the experience everywhere, especially in less developed countries. In Europe and America, the level of education is very high, their attitude to science is better. They have better science culture than we do, so for them it is given, in fact they spend money to get weather forecast. But this one we are begging people come and take, over there people pay huge sums of money.
We therefore have to generate that confidence and as today I can tell you that it is getting better and better. If you go and check our previous SRP presentations and my speeches, I keep calling people to come and partner us. We are ready to partner with states. In every SRP we have presented, we invite commissioners responsible for agriculture, environment, health, water resources, we invite them over time. Many of them do attend, others may not respond, but those who started responding, they can see the result. After 2006 prediction, Katsina state said okay let us try this people. They invited us to come and we did presentation. It was wow! You heard the testimony of the representative of Katsina state government today.
When we went there the presentation we made was that our predictions are 75 percent accurate. And they said, Okay, let’s try them. When the man was signing the MoU today, he said you told us that you are 75 percent accurate, now we know that you are 100% accurate. So you can see that gradually awareness, that consciousness is growing. I am sure that they will tell their neighbouring state, their neighbouring state will now tell another neighbouring state. And of course we are working with some international organizations like USAID, it is an NGO kind of arrangement, we are working with the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), we are working with British American Tobacco, Nigeria foundation. We signed MoU with British America Tobacco not long ago in Lagos. So you can say that gradually the consciousness is growing. Initially, I wasn’t satisfied with the level of response but I wasn’t deterred because I knew that if you keep saying it one day, one person will listen to you. When you get one person, he becomes your apostle; he becomes the advocate for you. And that is what Katsina state is doing for us now. Katsina state is telling others, I won’t be surprised that if by next week we are receiving invitations from states.
How do you go about getting the predictions of each part of the country?
In this prediction you cannot have one side-fits all, what happens in South-West maybe totally different from what happens in North-East or North-West. So all those geographical variations are there, but overall the earliest, if you look at the executive summary, it shows you where we are expecting the earliest on set which is already February in the South-South around Bayelsa coastal area. We have been expecting early cases, some cases we expect normal onset dates, in other places we are expecting early onset because of the Sothern Oscillation, which is a phenomenon that drives much of the weather system around there, especially in the south. Now, because of the enzo phase we are having which will persist within the first half of the year, we are going to have normal onset. But later the enzo phase will quickly change and will give us a condition where the rainfall will terminate earlier than usual. For instance, in Katsina the rainfall will terminate earlier this year. We have also predicted, you can see that we have early cessation in the north-western part of the country that is from Sokoto down to Potiskom, coming down to Jos is likely to have early cessation. Whereas smaller areas like the coastal areas experience late cessation and so on.
What is this year going to look like, is it that the dry season will be longer and the rainy season will be shorter?
That is exactly what I am saying; if you understood me. I said we cannot make a general prediction, it is not possible. So it depends on the area you are asking the question. From experience, I don’t answer that question, I would rather ask you if you are living in Jos or Port Harcourt. This is because what happens in Jos for instance may not be what happens in Enugu.
What will you say has been your greatest challenge?
My greatest challenge is to be able accomplish all that I set out to do. I accomplish quite a lot to the glory of God. One of my greatest challenges is that being perfectionist has enslaved me, by pursuing excellence by all means and at times it makes me to step on toes. So what is important is that we get there and when we get there even those toes that I stepped on, will be celebrating the most.
