As Nigeria’s Electricity Reset Gathers Momentum

Nigeria’s emerging power blueprint promises a decisive shift from grid dependency to reliable, decentralised electricity, writes Festus Akanbi

The national grid has traditionally measured Nigeria’s electricity crisis: the volume of power generated, the frequency of system collapses, and the quantity delivered to consumers. Although these indicators remain important, the federal government’s emerging strategy suggests a broader approach built around grid reinforcement, decentralised markets, renewable energy, universal metering, industrial power corridors, local manufacturing and private investment.

If implemented consistently, this blueprint could gradually transform electricity from a national liability into an instrument of industrial growth. Its strength lies in recognising that Nigeria cannot solve its power crisis merely by building more generating plants while neglecting transmission, distribution, metering, and payment discipline.

Presenting his first 100 days in office recently, the Minister of Power, Mr Joseph Tegbe, acknowledged that Nigerians would judge the government by improvements in their daily electricity experience.

“I promised a disciplined approach to solving the sector’s problems. I promised to pursue grid stability through structured, strategic reforms. I promised visible, incremental improvements. And I promised honest communication with Nigerians,” he said.

That candour is necessary because the sector remains deeply troubled. According to Tegbe, the government’s initial diagnosis revealed inadequate gas supply, ageing generating plants, deferred maintenance, weak transmission infrastructure, vandalism, estimated billing and poor revenue collection.

“The sector diagnosis revealed payment of only 27 per cent of generation companies’ bills, undermining their ability to maintain plants and pay gas suppliers,” he disclosed.

Distribution companies were also recording aggregate technical, commercial and collection losses of between 30 and 40 per cent, while arrears owed by ministries, departments and agencies exceeded N100 billion.

Tegbe summarised the sector’s vicious cycle: “Unpaid bills weaken gas supply and maintenance; unreliable supply depresses collections; poor collections deepen debt. A new power station cannot, by itself, resolve that cycle.”

The government’s immediate response has been to repair existing infrastructure and recover stranded capacity. The 375-megawatt Alaoji open-cycle power plant has returned to the grid after three years of inactivity. New transformers commissioned at Apapa, Ijora, Alausa and Lekki unlocked 672MW of transmission capacity, while another transformer at Katampe, Abuja, added 240MW.

“Operational records show generation and transmission above 5,000MW over the past couple of weeks, compared to the 3,700MW-to-4,700MW range before June,” Tegbe said. A generation peak of 5,330MW was also recorded in August and September.

For an economy of Nigeria’s size, however, 5,330MW remains profoundly inadequate. Tegbe appeared conscious of this limitation. “Our next task is to sustain these gains and translate them into more dependable supply at customer level,” he said. “We are aware that a national peak alone cannot describe the experience of every community.”

The proposed Transmission Super Grid is central to the longer-term strategy. Technical audits have begun along the Lagos and Abuja corridors, with further stabilisation planned for the Lagos, Enugu-Port Harcourt and Abuja-Kaduna-Kano axes.

According to the minister, the audits will “identify weak points and guide investment to interventions with verified system impact.” A stronger transmission backbone could improve power evacuation, reduce instability and provide the reserve capacity required to withstand disruptions.

However, the Super Grid must not become another grand project trapped in funding difficulties, procurement disputes and administrative inertia. Its financing arrangements, implementation responsibilities and delivery milestones must be defined and regularly published.

Perhaps the most consequential component is the plan to connect electricity directly to productive economic clusters.

“We will improve the use of existing assets and link supply more directly to productive economic clusters,” Tegbe said. Bilateral arrangements between generation and distribution companies, he explained, are intended “to improve capacity utilisation and payment certainty.”

Dedicated supply to industrial corridors could allow manufacturers, agro-processing companies and small businesses to reduce their dependence on expensive generators. Reliable electricity would lower production costs, strengthen competitiveness and support employment.

Decentralisation offers another promising route. The Electricity Act 2023 empowers states to establish and regulate intrastate electricity markets. Rather than perceive these markets as threats, Tegbe said the government had embraced decentralisation “as an opportunity to unleash innovation, competition and investment across the federation.”

This could enable states to develop solutions around their resources. Gas-producing states could promote embedded generation, agricultural states could develop small hydro and biomass projects, while solar installations and mini-grids could serve remote communities.

Nevertheless, decentralisation will succeed only where states possess the institutional capacity to regulate operators, protect consumers and resist political interference. Without clear responsibilities and technical standards, Nigeria could merely replace one troubled national market with several weak state markets.

Renewable energy is equally prominent in the blueprint. According to Tegbe, 62 solar and mini-grid installations across 30 states have provided about 43.6MW of capacity and 41,735 connections, reaching more than 208,000 people.

“These are practical additions to access for communities and public institutions,” he said.

The portfolio includes a three-megawatt solar hybrid system serving more than 50,000 students and workers at Yakubu Gowon University, Abuja; a 20MW off-grid initiative in Kogi; a 3.5MW solar project in Kebbi; and a 5.5MW mini-grid in Epe. Thirty-nine planned mini-grids in Adamawa are expected to serve 40,000 households, 6,000 small businesses and more than 100 public institutions.

The government is also seeking to connect foreign investment with domestic production. Proposed projects include a $500 million power-equipment industrial park, a Nigerian cable-assembly plant and training centre, a $116 million Zungeru evacuation project and a three-year delivery programme for the East-West Super Grid.

“These proposals link infrastructure delivery to local production and technical capability,” Tegbe said.

Metering remains indispensable. Approximately 350,000 meters were installed during the minister’s first 100 days, while cumulative installations exceeded one million by August 2026. The resolution of litigation also unlocked the procurement of about 1.4 million smart meters, as 5,000 Nigerians undergo installer training.

According to Tegbe, metering will “replace disputed estimates with measured consumption and improve revenue accountability.”

The emerging strategy rests on a sound premise: Nigeria cannot generate its way out of the electricity crisis without simultaneously fixing transmission, distribution, regulation and commercial discipline.

Tegbe admitted that “national progress can coexist with an unreliable feeder in a particular community.” That should remain the government’s reality check. Success will not be measured by agreements signed or megawatts announced, but by factories abandoning generators, households receiving accurate bills and communities enjoying dependable electricity.