Oye: Nigeria’s Macroeconomic Stability Not Trickling Down to Poor

• Says 30% interest rate cannot grow GDP 

•Urges FG to prioritise food security, single-digit lending 

•Tasks EFCC to cite law criminalising dollar-denominated legal fees

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

The Chairman of the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics, Dele Oye, has said Nigeria’s improving macroeconomic indicators are yet to translate into better living conditions for millions of citizens, warning that rising poverty and food prices could undermine the gains recorded in the economy.

Oye, a former president of the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA), said the decline in headline inflation and the recent improvement in economic growth did not adequately reflect the realities confronting households across the country.

Speaking on AIT, Oye said while Nigeria was recording growth and rising oil production, the benefits were not being evenly distributed, particularly at the sub-national level.

He noted that the national inflation rate of 15.39 per cent masked significant differences in prices across states, pointing to food inflation in Adamawa, which he said stood at 51 per cent in July.

“What that means is not just a statistic. It is insecurity. Because for the woman in Adamawa who has to go to the market, the GDP figures do not mean anything, or the national inflation figure does not mean anything. It is the price they have to pay.

“What it means is they have to pay more for less. So we have to find a way to have inclusive growth,” he said.

Oye said the government needed to focus on ensuring that macroeconomic stability translated into cheaper credit, higher employment and lower food prices, arguing that growth figures alone could not capture the economic experience of ordinary Nigerians.

He criticised what he described as poor coordination between the federal and sub-national governments, saying some state governments were spending scarce resources on projects that did not directly improve livelihoods.

“If you look at all the macroeconomic gains, the way the resources are being deployed, especially at the sub-national level, you have seen that people are building flyovers without water or through regular traffic. People are going into airline business,” he said.

He also questioned the decision by some state governments to establish airlines, arguing that the sector was capital-intensive and difficult to operate profitably.

According to him, states should instead deploy part of their resources to provide affordable credit to businesses and industries, which he said would stimulate employment and deepen the impact of macroeconomic stability.

“If you turn part of that money to create single-digit loans for your industries, you will see that it will increase stability, generate more employment and create more macroeconomic stability that will trickle down to the poor,” he said.

Oye urged the federal government to adopt what he described as a “food-first” approach to economic policy, arguing that food prices were a critical measure of the welfare of poor Nigerians.

“The government needs to declare a food-first on price, because food inflation is the tax the poor pay on survival,” he said, while calling for greater protection for farmers and improved access to farms.

He identified insecurity, poor roads and the high cost of transportation as other factors preventing economic growth from reaching households. Oye also called for a reduction in lending rates, arguing that businesses could not expand meaningfully when interest rates remained around 30 per cent.

“You cannot grow the GDP with 30 per cent interest rate. There’s nothing you can do that will work. So we need to find a way to have a reasonable price loan,” he said.

He further criticised the federal government’s borrowing programme, saying excessive government demand for funds could crowd private businesses out of the credit market.

“We are currently being priced out of the market. If you go to the market today, there’s one government raising bonds on the other, at any price,” he said.

Oye also called for a more coordinated approach to poverty alleviation, arguing that the government could use existing identification and banking infrastructure to make interventions more transparent and targeted.

He also advocated greater implementation of local government autonomy, arguing that funds meant for local governments should be transmitted and monitored in a manner that ensures they are used for their intended purposes.

On the political implications of economic conditions ahead of the 2027 elections, Oye said Nigerians were more likely to judge the economy by their purchasing power and living conditions than by GDP figures. “GDP is just a scorecard. The stomach is the referee,” he said.

He argued that the government needed to ensure that improvements in macroeconomic indicators were reflected in household incomes, food prices, transport costs and access to credit.

Separately, Oye has challenged the legal basis of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) reported position that lawyers who charge clients in foreign currencies could be prosecuted, insisting that no Nigerian law criminalises merely quoting or invoicing professional fees in dollars.

Oye, a lawyer, said the EFCC must identify the specific statutory provision under which a legal practitioner could be prosecuted for denominating a fee in dollars, arguing that the provision of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Act being cited in the controversy deals with refusal to accept the naira as payment.

The legal practitioner made the argument in a commentary titled, “Bill in Dollars, Convicted by Headlines? The EFCC Must Cite the Section.”

Oye said Section 20(1) of the CBN Act 2007 establishes naira notes as legal tender in Nigeria, while Section 20(5) creates an offence where a person refuses to accept the naira as a means of payment.

He argued that the wording of the law was critical, because it prohibited refusal to accept naira rather than the act of quoting, denominating, indexing or invoicing a transaction in another currency.

“Refuses. To accept. Not quotes. Not denominates. Not indexes. Not invoices,” he stated, arguing that a lawyer who bills a client $20,000 but accepts the naira equivalent when offered had not committed an offence under the provision.

By contrast, he said, a person who expressly refused naira as payment would have violated the law and would be liable to the prescribed N50,000 fine.

Oye also pointed to Section 17 of the Foreign Exchange (Monitoring and Miscellaneous Provisions) Act, which, he said, permits people to maintain domiciliary accounts in internationally convertible currencies.