Interrogating Defence Minister’s Declaration of Victory over Terrorists, Bandits
A new chapter may be unfolding in Nigeria’s fight against terrorism and banditry as Minister of Defence, General Christopher Musa’s declaration of victory signals growing confidence, renewed hope, and a potentially decisive turning point in the nation’s security efforts, writes Linus Aleke.
The declaration by the Minister of Defence, General Christopher Musa (rtd), that Nigeria has achieved victory over terrorists and bandits deserves to be examined not merely as a political statement, but against the operational realities and measurable gains recorded by the Nigerian security forces.
Interestingly, this is not the first time the Federal Government has declared victory over the rampaging and bloodthirsty violent extremists operating in the country.
In December 2015, the late President Muhammadu Buhari declared that Boko Haram had been “technically defeated”, following major territorial gains by Nigerian forces against the insurgents. In an interview with the BBC on 24 December 2015, Buhari said technically, the Nigerian military had won the war against Boko Haram, explaining that the insurgents could no longer mount conventional attacks against security forces or population centres and had been restricted largely to the use of improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs).
The declaration followed a major military campaign that had recovered territories previously held by the insurgents. Contemporary reports therefore presented Buhari’s assessment as a claim of technical victory rather than an assertion that every Boko Haram fighter or attack had ceased.
Still in December 2015, the then Minister of Information and Culture, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, similarly declared that the Federal Government had “largely won” the war against Boko Haram. Speaking after leading a team of 33 local and international journalists to areas at the centre of the insurgency in Borno State, including Maiduguri, Konduga, Kaoure and Bama, Mohammed said: “Today, I can report that the war against Boko Haram is largely won.”
He explained that he could make the declaration based on what he had personally witnessed during the tour, adding that the entire 70-plus-kilometre stretch from Maiduguri to Bama and onwards to Banki was in the hands of Nigerian troops. He further stated that the terrorists had been so degraded that they could no longer hold territory or carry out spectacular attacks.
Four years later, on 21 October 2019, Mohammed reaffirmed the position during a working visit to the corporate headquarters of a newspaper house in Lagos. Asked about his earlier assessment of the insurgency, he stood by it unequivocally, saying: “I stand by what I said that Boko Haram is technically defeated.”
Mohammed explained, however, that Nigeria was then confronting a broader form of global terrorism involving groups and networks such as ISIS, ISWAP and Al-Qaeda.
Fast-forward to Thursday, September 3, 2026, and barely 11 years after the previous administration declared technical victory over violent extremists, Minister of Defence, General Christopher Musa (rtd.), reiterated the Federal Government’s claim of victory in the ongoing fight against insurgency and other forms of violent extremism.
Musa said attacks by terrorists and extremist groups were no longer as rampant or brazen as they had been in the past. Speaking during an interview on a national television programme, monitored by THISDAY, he observed that terrorist attacks had drastically reduced, giving way largely to kidnappings.
Asked whether Nigeria had defeated terrorists or merely displaced them, Musa said: “Frankly speaking, we have defeated terrorists because now, like I said, the attacks are not as rampant and it is now kidnapping.”
He said security had improved under President Bola Tinubu, adding that reports of terrorist attacks were no longer as frequent as they once were.
According to him, “I can tell you there is improved security. May be if you noticed, you don’t hear so much of Boko Haram attacks, ISWAP attacks and all these things here and there, maybe one-off.”
Musa argued that the security situation was following a downward trajectory from criminality to kidnapping, terrorism and insurgency, noting that once security forces successfully hit such groups, they were forced down the scale of operations. He added that kidnappings had become an easier means for criminals to raise funds.
The Minister also stressed that troops were now entering terrorists’ enclaves and recovering many abducted persons.
Musa’s position appears to be supported, at least in part, by recent operational figures released by the Defence Headquarters in August 2026. Director of Defence Media Operations, Major General Michael Onoja, reported that Nigerian troops had killed more than 324 terrorists and criminals and apprehended 373 others in August, 2026 alone.
Onoja said the August figures reflected a marked improvement in operational effectiveness, driven by intensified kinetic and non-kinetic operations, enhanced intelligence, inter-agency cooperation and increased pressure on criminal and terrorist networks.
More significantly, surrendered terrorists rose from 11 in June to 57 in July and 201 in August, suggesting increasing pressure on hostile elements and a possible willingness among some fighters to abandon terrorism. Civilian rescues also increased substantially in August, while arms and ammunition recoveries rebounded.
These figures provide important context for Musa’s declaration. Yet acknowledging these gains does not require ignoring the continuing threat.
The 2026 Global Terrorism Index reported that terrorism-related deaths in Nigeria increased from 513 in 2024 to 750 in 2025, representing a 46 per cent rise. Nigeria consequently ranked fourth globally in terrorism-related deaths. These figures suggest that victory should be understood as an ongoing process rather than the complete disappearance of every violent group.
Indeed, this distinction may strengthen rather than weaken Musa’s position. A military can achieve strategic superiority while still confronting residual insurgent cells, criminal gangs and isolated attacks. The critical question is whether these groups are becoming increasingly incapable of challenging the authority of the state.
Security experts, however, remain divided.
Veteran Defence Correspondent, Madu Onuora questioned the basis of the declaration, asking: “victory over which terrorists?”
He described the Minister’s declaration as premature and at variance with the reality on the ground, drawing parallels with previous declarations of victory, including Buhari’s 2015 “technical defeat” claim, former Chief of Army Staff, Lt. Gen. Tukur Buratai’s 2018 assertion that absolute victory was “inches away”, and his 2020 declaration that the military had “won the ground war”.
According to Onuora, the situation remains complex. While the capabilities of terrorists may be degraded, he argued that the infrastructure sustaining terrorism remains largely intact.
He said efforts should therefore focus on dismantling deeply entrenched terror networks while addressing the root causes of radicalisation and the governance failures that breed and sustain recruitment.
Similarly, Chairman of the Guild of Public Affairs Analysts of Nigeria, Enugu State Chapter, Dr Ambrose Igboke, cautioned against confusing military effort with the complete resolution of insecurity.
“While we need to encourage our military personnel and urge them to do more, we cannot begin to dance around the subject matter of continued insecurity in our country,” he said.
According to Igboke, terrorists cannot be described as defeated while they retain the capacity to carry out large-scale attacks and inflict significant casualties. He urged the government to avoid turning the issue into political propaganda.
A more measured assessment came from the Head of the Department of Political Science at Benue State University, Makurdi, Prof. Atah Pine, who acknowledged that the Nigerian Armed Forces had recorded encouraging successes against rural banditry and terrorism in recent times.
“They have won several battles, no doubt, but the war is not over,” he said. “To declare defeat over banditry and terrorism at this point is not in sync with the reality of the situation. It is like putting the cart before the horse.”
Former Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Ambassador Ogbole Amedu-Ode, offered a more sympathetic interpretation of Musa’s position. He said it was gratifying to hear such a declaration from a retired general who had “paid his dues in and out of the trenches”, adding that he was inclined to believe Musa because of his antecedents.
Nevertheless, Amedu-Ode said the real measure of victory would be felt when terrorism and those who profit from it had been defeated to the point where farmers could safely return to their fields and secure the nation’s food supply chain.
This is perhaps the most important test of the declaration.
Properly understood, Musa’s statement can be interpreted as a declaration about the changing balance of power between the Nigerian state and armed groups, rather than a claim that insecurity has completely disappeared.
There is substantial evidence that Nigeria’s Armed Forces have inflicted serious damage on terrorist and criminal networks. In March 2026, Musa said terrorists and bandits were suffering heavier casualties, with several commanders killed and their assets taken over by Nigerian forces. He also said military strategies had been adjusted and troops had reclaimed locations previously contested by terrorists.
These developments matter because successful counter-insurgency is not measured solely by the number of attacks recorded on a particular day. It is also measured by an armed group’s ability to hold territory, maintain command structures, acquire weapons, move freely and sustain its operations. The killing of commanders and seizure of operational assets can therefore represent significant blows to terrorist organisations.
There has also been increased investment in the security architecture supporting these operations. In Sokoto, for instance, the state government recently provided security agencies with 62 operational vehicles, 320 motorcycles and other tactical equipment as part of a package valued at more than N27 billion.
Similarly, in Zamfara, Governor Dauda Lawal handed over 25 Armoured Personnel Carriers, an endurance surveillance drone and other operational equipment to the military in February, 2026. The intervention was part of a wider investment in security mobility, surveillance, troop protection and rapid response.
Such investments provide important operational context for Musa’s declaration. The military is not only taking the fight to terrorists and bandits; it is increasingly being equipped with the tools required to sustain pressure on criminal networks and consolidate battlefield gains.
Ultimately, Musa’s declaration should be judged against the direction of Nigeria’s security campaign. The elimination of terrorist commanders, recovery of territory, destruction of operational assets, improved equipment and stronger inter-agency coordination are legitimate indicators of progress.
The remaining challenge is to consolidate these gains through sustained military operations, intelligence-led policing, effective border security, community cooperation and economic measures that prevent new criminal networks from emerging.
Musa’s declaration should therefore be understood as a statement of strategic confidence. Nigeria may not yet have eliminated terrorism and banditry, but there is credible evidence that the state is increasingly capable of taking the fight to the perpetrators.
The task now is not to retreat from that momentum, but to sustain it until victory becomes not merely a declaration, but an enduring reality for Nigerian communities.
