Four Years Not Enough for Tinubu’s Reforms to Deliver, Says Ojugbana, Insists Policy Continuity Critical to Industrialisation, Food Security

The Founder of Farmafrik.org, Les Ojugbana, has said four years may not be enough for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s economic reforms to deliver their full benefits, warning that reversing course as key indicators begin to improve could undermine Nigeria’s recovery.

Ojugbana, who spoke on the state of the economy, described the removal of petrol subsidy as a bold move in the right direction, despite the severe cost-of-living pressures that followed.

“Four years cannot repair decades of structural failure,” Ojugbana said.

“President Tinubu inherited problems that were not created in four years. Nigeria has struggled for decades with infrastructure deficits, import dependence, subsidy distortions, foreign-exchange challenges and a weak industrial base. These problems will not disappear overnight.”

He acknowledged that millions of Nigerians were yet to feel the benefits of the reforms, saying government must move faster to cushion households and translate economic growth into jobs and stronger purchasing power.

“The pain is real. Food, transportation and other basic costs have hit families very hard,” he said. “Government must ensure that the benefits of reform reach ordinary Nigerians much faster.”

Ojugbana, however, said recent economic indicators suggested that some stabilisation was taking place.

Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.89 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, compared with 3.13 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025, while manufacturing expanded by 3.29 per cent.

Headline inflation moderated to 15.43 per cent in July from 15.91 per cent in June, while the country’s external reserves have strengthened from levels recorded earlier in the reform period.

Ojugbana cautioned that better macroeconomic numbers did not mean Nigerians were suddenly better off, noting that lower inflation meant prices were rising more slowly, not that prices had returned to previous levels.

“The Nigerian masses may not have felt these improvements yet,” he said. “There is usually a lag between economic stabilisation and when investment, employment, wages and purchasing power begin to respond.

“If the foundations are beginning to work, this is the time to strengthen them, while demanding better execution, not dismantle them.”

Ojugbana also pointed to comments by Chairman of Heirs Holdings and United Bank for Africa (UBA), Tony Elumelu, as evidence of improvements being experienced by parts of the private sector.

Elumelu disclosed in 2025 that his oil operations, which had previously lost as much as 97 per cent of production to theft, were retaining about 98 per cent, with losses falling to approximately two per cent.

He also praised reforms in the foreign-exchange market, saying businesses could increasingly access dollars without depending on personal connections at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

“I am not a politician, so I’ll speak my truth,” Elumelu said.

Ojugbana said such developments were important for rebuilding investor confidence and encouraging businesses to make long-term commitments to Nigeria.

He warned that a wholesale reversal of economic direction following a change of administration could interrupt the recovery before its gains filter through to households.

“If every four years Nigeria dismantles the economic framework of the previous four years, we will permanently be starting again,” he said.

“This should not be about one politician. Investors building factories, refineries, power projects and agricultural processing plants are thinking 10, 20 and 30 years ahead. Nigeria needs that same long-term thinking.”

Ojugbana identified industrialisation as central to Nigeria’s economic transformation, citing the Dangote Refinery and the expansion of BUA and other Nigerian industrial groups as examples of the scale of domestic investment required.

While stressing that the Tinubu administration neither built nor financed the Dangote Refinery, he said policies supporting domestic crude supply and reducing foreign-exchange pressures on local refiners could help deepen Nigeria’s refining capacity.

“Nigeria should not seek to make successful entrepreneurs poorer. It should create an economy capable of producing thousands more successful entrepreneurs,” he said.

“But billionaires cannot be our final definition of economic success. Industrialisation must ultimately translate into jobs, higher real incomes and better living standards.”

Ojugbana also disclosed plans by Farmafrik to develop NPK fertiliser plants across different parts of Nigeria, alongside farmer training programmes focused on modern and sustainable agricultural practices.

He said the initiative would seek to improve farmers’ access to critical inputs while equipping them with the knowledge and techniques required to raise productivity, improve yields and use agricultural inputs more efficiently.

“If Nigeria is serious about food security, we must strengthen the agricultural value chain from the beginning,” Ojugbana said.

“Our farmers need more than access to fertiliser. They need modern knowledge, better farming practices and the skills to produce more from the land available to them.”

According to him, locating fertiliser production closer to farming communities would reduce logistics costs and dependence on imported inputs, while the planned training programme would focus on increasing productivity through modern, sustainable farming methods.

“Producing fertiliser here means creating jobs here, retaining value within our economy and reducing dependence on imports and the dollar,” he said.

“But we must also invest in the farmer. Farmafrik’s objective is to combine access to agricultural inputs with training in modern, sustainable farming practices that can increase productivity and improve livelihoods.

“Nigeria must become a nation that produces.”

On calls for the restoration of petrol subsidy, Ojugbana cautioned against returning wholesale to the previous system, citing allegations of fraudulent claims, corruption and powerful cartels that had surrounded the subsidy regime.

He said Nigerians were right to demand transparency over how subsidy savings were being spent, but argued that accountability should not mean recreating a flawed system.

“Citizens have every right to demand transparency. Accountability is non-negotiable,” he said.

“But we should not forget the allegations of corruption and abuse surrounding the old subsidy system. Who benefited, how those cartels operated and the enormous sums involved is a story for another day.”

Ojugbana stressed that policy continuity did not mean giving the Tinubu administration a blank cheque.

“Challenge the reforms where they fail. Improve them where necessary. Demand accountability and insist that government delivers faster for ordinary Nigerians,” he said.

“But if the direction is towards production, investment and economic stability, Nigeria must have the patience and discipline to see it through.

“Four years may simply not be enough.”