Credibility in Osun, Questions for Wike and the NBA

The Advocate

By Onikepo Braithwaite

Onikepo.braithwaite@thisdaylive.com

Different people had different things that caught their attention, about the recently concluded Osun State Gubernatorial election. But, the fact that Accord Party’s Governor Ademola Adeleke, the incumbent, was re-elected to do his second term, having defeated his closest rival, the APC candidate, with a wide margin, not only laid some of the issues to rest, but brought credibility to the election and INEC (Independent National Electoral Commission). 

Recall a few weeks ago, I stated that certain things bring credibility to an election/electoral process – this is one of them – the fact that the national ruling party didn’t win this election “at all costs”. Despite the pre-election violence in which over 40 people were reported to have been killed, and Senator Francis Fadahunsi’s live video in which he counselled APC supporters to kill Accord Party members if they encountered them before the election (“pi pa ni o”), the election appeared to end up being reasonably decent, apart from some vote buying that was reported. However, while Governor Adeleke’s victory strengthens the credibility of Nigerian elections, comments like that of Mr Nyesom Wike, about a different outcome had he been involved in the Osun election, tend to do the opposite. 

Nyesom Wike on the Osun Election 

FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike stated thus: “If the President had wanted to win the Osun State election at all costs, I would have been there and we would have won it, and there’s nothing the Governor can do”. Such a statement does nothing, but undermine the credibility of INEC and the electoral process. 

The will of the Osun people was expressed quite clearly at the ballot – they want Ademola Adeleke and no one else as their Governor, this time around. In fact, the truth is that each time Ademola Adeleke offered up himself to run for Governor, he seems to have always won the elections; even the 2018 election against Gboyega Oyetola that he eventually lost out on, he had initially satisfied the provisions of Section 179(2)(a) & (b) of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended)(the Constitution) which sets out the conditions to be fulfilled to win a gubernatorial election. The election was however, declared inconclusive, and Oyetola was able to win the supplementary election, and subsequently, emerge as winner. I will discuss inconclusive elections below.

Pertinent Questions 

What did Mr Wike mean by ‘win at all costs’? How does Mr Wike win elections by “all costs”? Did Mr Wike mean that he would have joined APC in their campaign before the election, to sway voters to their side? That seems doubtful, due to Mr Wike’s  reference to Governor Adeleke not being able to do anything after losing out – a loaded statement that not only undermines the credibility of INEC and even the Judiciary, which is where aggrieved candidates turn to for succour, but one that would definitely rile the people, and ignite resentment against the President, the Federal Government and APC. So, what could Mr Wike have done to supersede the will of the Osun people, and force an APC victory on them, no matter what? What would he have done differently that would have guaranteed APC’s victory, without the buy-in of majority of the voters who opted for Governor Adeleke and the Accord Party? 

In Nigeria, an election outcome that diverges from the actual votes cast or fails to mirror same, is considered to be a stolen or a rigged election, the outcome of which could only be described as illegitimate or undemocratic – a selection, rather than an election. 

Electoral College System 

Of course, there is another exception besides election rigging, to the popular vote not being the determinant of the outcome of an election, but we don’t practice it here – the Electoral College system which is used in America, where the votes of the Electoral College which is really the final decider of the American Presidential elections, doesn’t necessarily have to mirror the outcome of the popular vote, as we saw in the election of Hillary Clinton v Donald Trump, in which Clinton won the votes of the people (popular vote), but Trump won the votes at the Electoral College, making him the winner of the 2016 American Presidential election. In the 2024 Kamala Harris v Donald Trump election, President Trump won both the popular vote and the Electoral College vote. 

NBA Observance of the Osun Election

However, as a Lawyer, what actually interested me about the Osun State Gubernatorial election, was the fact that the the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) that was unable to conduct its own general elections credibly, went to observe the Osun election! I found that amusing. If INEC had done what the ECNBA did in the conduct of the 2026 NBA elections, not only would the public have been up in arms, election petitions arising therefrom would have been rife. 

And, Osun State for that matter, where the issue of INEC declaring an election inconclusive, was part of the subject-matter of their gubernatorial election petition two cycles ago. How ironic. Even though the 2019 Osun State case – Adeleke & Anor v INEC & Ors was concerned with inconclusive elections, its decision can be distinguished from that of Hon. James Abiodun Faleke v INEC & Anor 2016 18 N.W.L.R. Part 1543 Page 61, because it was decided more on procedural irregularity – the Court of Appeal held that the Judge who delivered the majority decision in the Adeleke case was absent at a crucial sitting of the Tribunal, thereby rendering the judgement a nullity. This position was subsequently upheld, in a split decision of the Supreme Court. 

The NBA having just concluded a classic example of what can only be described as an inconclusive election fraught with irregularities, in which over 70% of eligible members were disenfranchised, and is trying to proceed normally as if the election was credible and conclusive, has absolutely no moral justification or election expertise to observe, supervise or judge the elections of others, when it failed to conduct and judge its own elections properly. Hon. James Abiodun Faleke v INEC & Anor (Supra) is the Supreme Court’s foundational authority on the legality of INEC declaring an election inconclusive and the margin-of-lead principle, whereby the number of registered voters exceeds the margin of the votes between the two leading candidates. This is because, this margin is capable of changing the outcome of the election. 

In the case of the NBA, the body for Lawyers, it is inconceivable that the margin-of-lead principle, very well known to us, hasn’t been applied and a rerun election conducted. The number of registered voters that were disenfranchised, approximately 60,000, was many times more than the margin of votes between Mrs Oyinkansola Badejo-Okusanya, SAN and Mr Lateef Omoyemi Akangbe, SAN, and between Mrs Badejo-Okusanya, SAN and Mr Olumuyiwa Akinboro, SAN. In the case of NBA elections, a rerun election is capable of changing the election outcomes completely, or transforming the performance of Mrs Badejo-Okusanya, SAN and that of the other declared winners, to a credible and valid victory. 

Going Forward

Sadly, whether there are institutional or credibility gains, or there are legitimate concerns and complaints about institutions or processes, those concerned fail to follow up appropriately by doing the needful to develop stronger institutions and better processes. 

With INEC, Nigerians expect them to build upon their gains of the Osun State election in order to deliver a free, fair and credible general election come 2027 – be it in perfecting their logistics or training their ad-hoc staff, we are expecting less complaints and better outcomes. Nigerians hope that INEC will not disappoint. 

As for the NBA, over the years, there have been complaints about the conduct of its elections. It appears that there have been difficulties, in making the electronic election process unimpeachable. However, those complaints reached an unprecedented crescendo in the 2026 cycle, particularly because all the shortcomings had been brought to light well before the election was held, but the NBA/ECNBA chose to ignore/justify  them, instead of implementing the necessary corrective measures. Unfortunately, the attitude of ignoring legitimate issues and lack of accountability have become a culture in Nigeria, and the NBA being a Nigerian association, is not immune from same. 

The NBA’s internal dispute resolution mechanism seems to have been exhausted and appeared to fail, expectedly so too. It therefore, wouldn’t be out of place for aggrieved candidates to institute legal proceedings to seek redress, seeing as it has become impossible for them to benefit from the right of fair hearing and just treatment from any NBA Appeals Committee – see Section 36(1) of the Constitution. The court has jurisdiction to hear and determine the NBA election petitions – see Section 6(6)(b) of the Constitution and Madukolu & Ors v Nkemdilim (1962) LPELR-24023(SC) per Vahe Robert Bairamian, JSC. A candidate also has the locus standi to institute an action, concerning their dissatisfaction with the conduct of the NBA elections and the outcome, as they have a personal interest in the outcome, since they are directly affected by and will suffer injury from same – see Olawoyin v AG Northern Region (1961) LPELR-25065(SC) per Edgar Ignatius Godfrey Unsworth, JSC; Fawehinmi v IGP & Ors (2002) LPELR-1258(SC) per Samson Odemwingie Uwaifo, JSC. 

Their first prayer would be for an injunction to restrain the inauguration of an NBA Executive which has arisen from an electoral process that is being questioned, as it is trite that an order of injunction cannot be granted to restrain a completed act, so it’s obviously expedient to get one before the swearing in, while the second prayer would be for an order for a rerun election – see AR Security Solution Ltd v EFCC (2018) LPELR-43828(SC) per Kumai Bayang Aka’ahs, JSC. If the court is genuinely interested in playing its role in strengthening institutions and the development of society, the legitimate and fertile grounds for the grant of remedies in the NBA matter, will not simply be brushed aside. They will be given the serious consideration they deserve.

Conclusion 

Building of strong institutions, requires the courage to prioritise institutional integrity over convenience and personal interest. The Osun State election demonstrated that a clear expression of the people’s will, can enhance the credibility of both the process and INEC. Statements that suggest outcomes can be engineered “at all costs”, regardless of that will, do the opposite. Such statements are unhelpful to the President, his campaign and his victory, if he is re-elected.

The NBA faces a parallel test. An election in which a substantial majority of eligible members couldn’t participate, cannot simply  be brushed off as concluded and unimpeachable. If the courts remain the last hope of the common man, then aggrieved candidates are entitled to seek judicial scrutiny of the electoral process that failed basic standards of accessibility and reliability. Maybe for the first time, Lawyers will see a positive step towards the aggrieved candidates getting the justice they deserve, if the requisite orders are made and the NBA is thereby compelled to obey. 

Like Amuda Akanbi commented on my page a couple of weeks ago, it only took one Rosa Parks refusing to vacate her seat for a white passenger on a bus, to change the course of American history; likewise, it need only take one Judge to make orders that will not only bring accountability that appears to have been sadly lacking into NBA elections, but also show that any presumption of regularity sought to be enjoyed by the NBA must be earned by conducting unimpeachable elections, and it is obvious that the presumption of regularity cannot be achieved without the requisite integrity needed to make this regularity a reality.

It is unfortunate as well as discouraging that many have lost faith, and do not believe that anything will come out of any quest for justice and redress in the NBA situation, and it will just be business as usual!