Ex-VC: Nigeria Requires Double-digit Economic Growth to Minimise Poverty

Calls for new economic development philosophy

Dike Onwuamaeze

A former Vice Chancellor of the University of Uyo, Akwa Ibom State, Prof. Hogan Ekpo, has advised that Nigeria should embrace a ‘new’ economic development philosophy that will achieve double-digit economic growth over the next 20 years to make a dent on multi-dimensional poverty plaguing its citizens.

Ekpo, who was a director general of West African Institute of Financial and Economic Management, made this declaration in his lecture titled: “The State of the Nigerian Economy, 2015-2026: Dialogue With Citizens,” in which he stated Nigeria’s attempt to build a capitalist market economy for 66 years has resulted in the “development of underdevelopment” that has resulted in mass poverty, backwardness and hopelessness.  

He said: “The forecast is that the economy would grow by 4.49 per cent in 2026; the current growth rate is about 4.2 per cent. But it should be stated that growth is not development.  An economy must grow at least double-digit sustained for 20 years to have a dent on poverty reduction.   

“There must be intentionally formulated and implemented policies to fast-track sustained growth and inclusive development.”

According to the emeritus professor of economics and public policy, there is a need for a paradigm shift in Nigeria’s economic development philosophy towards the formulation and implementation of a developmental state philosophy that would fast-track growth and development.

He said: “Under this scenario, the state, that is, the ruling class would represent not only the interest of the working class and other vulnerable groups but would also perceive development of the country as the central role of governance. This can only take place under a market socialist framework.

“We can study the examples of China, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and others and craft homegrown solutions to reset our economy.”

According to him, the income per capita of Nigerians fluctuated between 2015 and 2025 from $2585.73 to $868. He said that the growth rate of income per capita has not been impressive and it is, therefore, not surprising why about 130 million Nigerians are in multidimensional poverty.

Ekpo noted that the revised methodology that estimated the unemployment rate at 4.5 per cent in 2023 could suggest that the economy was at full employment output and send wrong signals to policy makers not to worry much about unemployment.

He also attributed the downward trending inflation rate to methodological manipulation by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBA), which rebased the Consumer Price Index (CPI) using 2024 as the base year.      

“This exercise brought down the rate of inflation which does not reflect the reality in the market place,” he said.    

Ekpo averred that the lack of sustained industrial and manufacturing growth and ongoing oil dependence for foreign exchange are suggesting that economic diversification efforts remained incomplete.

 He said: “The industrial sector exhibits a clear downward trend, declining from 23.71 per cent in 2015 to about 16.78 per cent in 2025. This contraction is particularly concerning for economic diversification because industrialisation, especially manufacturing, is widely regarded as the backbone of sustainable structural transformation.

“A shrinking industrial share suggests weakening productive capacity, reduced investment in industry, and limited progress in developing value-added activities. This trend indicates that Nigeria’s diversification efforts have not successfully translated into industrial expansion, which is critical for long-term growth, employment generation, and export competitiveness.”

Ekpo said that the so-called stability of the exchange rate was misleading, querying the variables driving the exchange rate stability.

He said: “An exchange rate can be relatively stable if production drives the rate.  In other words, the economy must be producing and exporting non-oil goods and services, earning foreign exchange to arrive at an exchange rate that is stable for at least a year.”