Insecurity as Threat to Nigeria’s 2027 Polls

As political activities gather momentum ahead of the 2027 general elections, growing insecurity across several parts of Nigeria has become a major source of national concern.The resurgence of terrorist attacks, increasing cases of kidnapping and banditry, and repeated assaults on both civilians and security formations have raised questions about the capacity of security agencies to guarantee a peaceful electoral process, writes Linus Aleke.

The worsening security situation across Nigeria has continued to raise concerns over the successful conduct of the 2027 general elections. With increasing attacks on civilians, schools, and military formations, many Nigerians are beginning to question whether the elections will hold as scheduled.

Just last week, armed extremist groups invaded several schools in Oriire Local Government Area of Oyo State, abducting students and teachers. In a disturbing development, the terrorists not only demanded ransom but also released a video on social media showing the beheading of one of their captives at a location yet to be identified by security agencies.

Although the incident ranks among the most horrifying attacks recorded in South-West Nigeria in recent years, similar acts of violence have become frequent in parts of Northern Nigeria. The South-East and South-South regions have also witnessed repeated cases of killings and abductions involving innocent civilians, including schoolchildren.

In the North-East, the epicentre of insurgency in the country, ISWAP and Boko Haram fighters have intensified attacks on military formations in addition to assaults on villages, killings, cattle rustling, abductions, and destruction of communities.

Recently, troops of the Joint Task Force (North East), Operation Hadin Kai (OPHK), repelled an attack by ISWAP terrorists on the 120 Task Force Battalion in Gonori under Sector 2. The attack, which began late on 9 May 2026, lasted into the early hours of the following day.

The assault came barely 24 hours after troops foiled another coordinated attack on the Headquarters of 27 Brigade in Buni Gari and the Buni Gari checkpoint. During that operation, no fewer than 50 insurgents were reportedly killed, while a cache of arms and ammunition was recovered.

Within 48 hours, ISWAP fighters attempted attacks on four military formations across the North-East theatre, beginning with the assault on the Forward Operating Base in Magumeri under Sector 3. The attack reportedly claimed the lives of two soldiers, while several terrorists were also killed.

Security sources described the repeated attacks on military facilities as a disturbing trend requiring urgent action, stressing that troops must intensify offensive operations against terrorist enclaves instead of remaining defensive.

Data from the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2025 showed that Nigeria recorded 171 terror attacks in 2025, representing a 43 per cent increase from the 120 attacks recorded in 2024. Terror-related deaths also rose from 513 in 2024 to about 750 in 2025, marking a 46 per cent increase.

These persistent attacks on civilians and military formations have further exposed weaknesses in the country’s security response and heightened fears that insecurity could discourage voter participation if not urgently addressed.

Despite the growing concerns, some analysts remain optimistic that the elections will hold.

A Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Benue State University, Makurdi, Atah Pine, argued that the current level of insecurity was not severe enough to prevent the elections from taking place.

According to him, “It is a perspective to analysing the security crisis. There are many other perspectives of interpretation. In all, as a human phenomenon, we must be dynamic in our interpretations and analysis. The entirety of the security architecture must be intelligence-driven if any tangible and meaningful result is to be achieved.”

Similarly, Editor-in-Chief of Razor Newspaper, Odita Sunday, said the elections would hold as scheduled if the government and security agencies remained committed to tackling terrorism, banditry, and kidnapping.

To improve public confidence, he said, “the Police and the DSS should up the ante in intelligence gathering, ensure visible deployment of personnel in vulnerable areas, respond promptly to security incidents, and maintain professionalism and neutrality before, during, and after the elections.”

Also speaking, Chairman of the Guild of Public Affairs Analysts of Nigeria, Enugu State Chapter, Dr Ambrose Igboke, expressed confidence that there were no signs suggesting the elections would be postponed.

“So, I am very optimistic that the elections will hold. There were concerns about the elections falling within the Ramadan or Lent period, but these concerns have been addressed by shifting the timelines to January 2027,” he said.

On claims that the growing insecurity was politically motivated, Igboke disagreed, insisting: “This position is a mere excuse by the Federal Government to explain away its failure to deal with insecurity. There was a high rate of insecurity in 2023, 2024 and 2025; were these election years? Absolutely no. So, the government should not be selling that dummy to us. There is insecurity because the government has refused to tackle it head-on. Saying that the insecurity is politically motivated is a lazy excuse.”

He further urged the Police to adopt technology-driven intelligence and counter-insurgency strategies while improving the welfare of personnel and strengthening community policing.

Meanwhile, Inspector-General of Police (IGP), Olatunji Disu, has assured the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) of the Nigeria Police Force’s readiness to secure the 2027 elections.

Speaking during a meeting with the INEC Chairman, Professor Joash Amupitan, the IGP said the Force had commenced strategic threat assessments and intelligence mapping nationwide to identify flashpoints and emerging threats ahead of the polls.

He identified political violence, illegal arms proliferation, voter intimidation, cyber manipulation, misinformation, and attacks on electoral infrastructure as key concerns.

“Intelligence-led deployments and preventive policing strategies will be adopted to neutralise threats before they escalate,” he said.

Disu also warned that officers involved in partisan activities or unethical conduct would face disciplinary and legal action.

“We will ensure that we enforce electoral laws firmly and we will do it professionally,” the IGP added.

He further reaffirmed the commitment of the Police and other security agencies under the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES) to ensuring peaceful and credible elections, including the forthcoming governorship poll in Ekiti State.

The Police disclosed that deployment plans had already been concluded across the state’s 16 local government areas, 154 wards, and over 2,400 polling units to guarantee the safety of voters, electoral officials, and observers.

Disu also urged political actors to abide by the Peace Accord and conduct their activities peacefully while commending INEC and the National Peace Committee, led by former Head of State, General Abdulsalami Abubakar for their efforts in promoting peaceful democratic participation and public confidence in the electoral process.

However, with fear spreading across many communities, concerns are mounting over whether Nigerians will feel safe enough to participate freely in the elections if the security situation continues to deteriorate.