NNPCL: Reform, Governance and the Hard Work of Transformation

Michael Kabi

Nigeria keeps talking about reforming its oil sector, but let us face it, the results are always disappointing. New laws, shiny agencies, big announcements; they come and go. Still, production slides, money disappears, investors look away, and nobody believes anything is really going to change. The recently constituted presidential petroleum reform & value optimisation taskforce must address these concerns. Our problem is not a lack of ideas. If anything, we are drowning in suggestions and draft laws. But we stop at paperwork. We do not tackle the gritty stuff: holding people to account, changing old habits, building a culture where things just work the way they should. Any government can announce new rules. Getting people to behave differently is the challenge. Things only shift when the incentives and the rules make people act differently.
Take NNPC Limited. In theory, it is no longer a government monopoly. It is supposed to work like a true, globally competitive oil company. But honestly, look past the new logo and PR, and it runs like the same old state agency. Investors see right through this. They are not swayed by branding or big speeches; they pay attention to how things really work.
Now, let us talk about what made a dent: that switch sending all oil and gas revenue directly into the Federation Account. By cutting out the side channels, the money started showing up, fast. Simple accountability worked. When people could track the cash, the numbers jumped. That is the power of basic transparency. But plugging leaks is not enough. That is just taking care of yesterday’s problems. If we want NNPC to be world-class, we need more. There is got to be a single, clear owner, a tough board ready to challenge management, and leadership confident enough to set and stick to real targets. Right now, NNPC answers to a confusing pile of government masters. Management is pulled in many directions, and when politics dwarfs common sense, nothing moves forward. No wonder serious investors keep their distance.
We must be clear; government ownership is not the problem. Some of the world’s best oil companies are state-owned. What drives investors away is a system where politics muddies decisions and nobody is held to any standard. Governance is everything. If you fill a board with political allies, you get a company focused on pleasing powerful people, not delivering results. It might work for a few politicians, but investors hate it. So, what should happen? For starters, NNPC’s board needs true industry professionals, not just big names or political insiders. Give them real teeth, not just a seat at the table. The audit committee should work for the owners, not the boss. Open the books so everyone, from regulators to Wall Street, sees where the money goes. There is also a mess inside NNPC. It is nearly impossible to tell which parts of the company make money and which ones are just holes in the bucket. Subsidiaries do deals with each other, fudge numbers, and hide losses. Real discipline starts with real numbers. Every business line should prove its worth, or it is closed. Yes, that will hurt. But NNPC will come out stronger.

People love to talk about NNPC getting listed on the stock market someday. Let us get real. There is a long road between here and an IPO. First, NNPC must stand on its own. No more propping up by government guarantees. Want a real test? Try issuing a global bond. The market will show you exactly how credible NNPC is. Credit investors do not care about spin. You are solid, or you are not. You pay for your weaknesses. This is about more than oil. If we can fix state companies, they will anchor Nigeria’s financial future, attract investment, and set the tone for everyone else. But if we do not get it right, they will only drain money and confidence.
If we want change that sticks, give everyday Nigerians a real slice of the action. Make them shareholders. Suddenly, millions of people have a reason to care. They will demand answers and shake things up more than any committee could.
Nigeria can move fast when it needs to. But lasting change means tough choices and staying the course. It means sharper discipline, honest numbers, and accepting what the results show, even if it hurts. Talk is cheap. Good governance builds real trust. If we want Nigeria’s oil wealth to fuel change, NNPC needs to deliver, not just promise. Investors and the world are watching. They trust results, nothing less. The market is not friendly, but it is fair. It rewards transparency and disciplines every single time. Presidential Committee, it is all yours. Do not waste this opportunity.

*Dr. Michael Kabi is a chartered accountant and energy strategist whose career spans banking leadership, a General Manager role at Dangote Group, and 18 years at Chevron Nigeria. He is Managing Partner of Mike Kabi Associates, a Lagos based advisory firm supporting private sector leaders, oil and gas companies, and development institutions across Africa. He holds a PhD in ESG Management and an MSc in Sustainable Development from the University of London and he is a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria