NESG Warns Reversal of Economic Reforms May Hamper Nation’s Growth Trajectory

James Emejo in Abuja

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has said that any attempt to reverse the current economic reform momentum could set the country’s growth trajectory back to crisis-era levels of about 2 percent.

The group noted that Nigeria remained in a consolidation phase following a near-collapse of the economy in recent years.

NESG Head of Research, Dr. Joseph Ogebe, who spoke at the NESG quarterly media engagement in Abuja, said that truncating ongoing reforms could also erode the macroeconomic stability gained during the reforms.

He said, “What we see is that growth could go to around two to three per cent if the policies are reversed.”

Ogebe noted that while reforms implemented over the past 30 months had begun to yield results, reversing them would worsen fiscal pressures, weaken investment, and deepen poverty.

He stated that, though the country’s growth had improved from about 2.5 per cent in 2023 to 2.9 percent, and then to 3.9 per cent, with modest gains in per capita income, inflation had also eased from about 40 percent in 2023 to 15.06 percent in February 2026.

Notwithstanding the improvements ushered by the reforms, Ogebe said the gains remained largely at the macro level and had yet to translate into tangible benefits for citizens.

He described 2026 as a critical turning point, noting that “this year, 2026, is a make-or-break year” for consolidating reforms and ensuring that macroeconomic stability translates into improved livelihoods.

Ogebe maintained that the country must move beyond its current growth level of six per cent to reduce poverty significantly, noting that growth remains narrow and driven mainly by a few sectors, including finance, ICT, and oil and gas, while job-creating sectors like agriculture and manufacturing still lag.

He further warned against growing calls to reverse policy amid global uncertainties, noting that past subsidy regimes had forced the government to borrow to finance consumption rather than development.

He said, “We were actually borrowing to pay for the subsidy. No funds were available for capital and development projects. That is not where we should go now.”

NESG’s Chief Economist/Director of Research, Olusegun Omisakin, said Nigeria is currently in a consolidation phase following a near-collapse of the economy in recent years.

He stressed that while subsidy removal had produced mixed outcomes, reversing it could worsen system inefficiencies.

Omisakin said, “If today we announce that the subsidy should be reversed, you are still going to see what we used to see before… government has no money for capital development… a lot of inefficiency in the system.”

He noted that the reforms were not automatic in delivering results, adding that outcomes depended largely on institutional efficiency, transparency, and strategic spending.

He said that priority should be given to strengthening systems rather than abandoning reforms under short-term pressures.

He said, “The attention should be towards creating a system that makes reforms work rather than reversing systems that we are not seeing working for now”, referencing countries including Ghana, where policy reversals worsened economic conditions.

Omisakin also pointed to improvements in foreign exchange access and capital inflows as early signs of recovery, but cautioned that decisions taken at this stage would determine the country’s long-term trajectory.

Also speaking at the session, NESG’s Head of Public Affairs and Public Policy Development, Seun Ojo, said sustaining reforms beyond political cycles remained critical to achieving inclusive growth.

She explained that discussions at the 31st Nigerian Economic Summit focused on translating macroeconomic gains into productivity, resilience, and fairness.

Ojo added that the summit identified key priorities, including industrialisation, infrastructure, investment, inclusion, and institutional reforms, and stressed the need for policy coherence and disciplined implementation across government agencies.

She further noted that restoring public trust through transparency and citizen engagement would be essential for sustaining reforms and delivering long-term economic transformation.

 away from one-off currency-driven gains toward more sustainable income streams.