Nigeria Retains Low Petrol Prices Comparatively Amid Global Surge, Dangote Refinery Cited as Key Stabiliser

Nigeria has maintained one of the lowest petrol prices globally despite recent increases triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with industry analysts crediting the stabilising influence of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals.
Data from GlobalPetrolPrices.com shows that petrol in Nigeria currently averages $0.88 (N1,191.39) per litre, significantly below the global average of $1.32 (N1,787.08) per litre, based on an exchange rate of N1,353.85 to the dollar. This positions Nigeria among the more affordable fuel markets worldwide, even as international fuel prices continue to rise.

Comparatively, petrol prices remain higher in several major economies. The United States records $1.075 (N1,455.39) per litre, India $1.095 (N1,482.47), and South Africa $1.189 (N1,609.73). Prices climb further in advanced economies, with the United Kingdom at $1.874 (N2,537.11), France at $2.152 (N2,913.49), and Germany at $2.343 (N3,172.07), while Hong Kong tops the chart at $3.967 (N5,370.72) per litre.

Within West Africa, Nigeria also compares favourably. Petrol prices are higher in Togo at $1.192 (N1,613.79), Benin at $1.218 (N1,648.99), Ghana at $1.240 (N1,678.77), and Cameroon at $1.478 (N2,000.99) per litre.
Analysts attribute Nigeria’s relative price stability to the growing impact of the Dangote refinery, which has helped cushion domestic consumers by absorbing part of the global cost pressures while ensuring consistent product supply. This role has become increasingly critical as many countries grapple with supply disruptions, rationing, and sharp price spikes linked to escalating Middle East tensions.

A notable insight from the data is that only a few countries globally sell petrol below $1 per litre without some form of government intervention. According to GlobalPetrolPrices, most countries within this price range rely on subsidies, price controls, or regulated pricing mechanisms to shield consumers from global volatility.

In contrast, Nigeria operates a fully deregulated downstream sector following the removal of fuel subsidies in 2023. This means domestic petrol prices are largely influenced by global crude oil trends and foreign exchange dynamics.

Despite this deregulation, the Dangote refinery has continued to serve as a buffer for the economy. Although petrol prices in Nigeria have increased by about 35 to 40 per cent since the onset of the global crisis, this rise remains lower than in several other countries. For instance, Cambodia and Vietnam have recorded increases exceeding 67 per cent and 49 per cent respectively.

Industry observers note that without the scale and capacity of the Dangote refinery, Nigeria could have been more vulnerable to global supply shocks, potentially leading to higher fuel prices, increased foreign exchange pressure, and widespread shortages. Instead, expanded local refining capacity has enhanced supply security, moderated price increases, and reinforced Nigeria’s position as one of the more stable fuel markets globally amid ongoing global uncertainty.