Kwara 2027: The Race For Ahmadu Bello Government House

By Hammed Shittu in Ilorin

The race for Ahmadu Bello Government House in Ilorin ahead of 2027 general elections has started in earnest. The stakeholders in the election have commenced their consultations in the three senatorial districts of the state so as to woo supporters for the realisation of their ambitions.

Even the Ramadan observed by Muslim faithful and Lent observed by Christian faithful have also been used by the gladiators to woo their supporters through donation of gifts items to them. The activities of these gladiators, according to THISDAY checks, is not unconnected with the move to succeed governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq who will be completing his eight-year tenure in 2027.

Governor Abdulrazaq emerged as the governor of the state on May 29, 2019 under the banner of the All Progressives Congress (APC) through the political upset called ‘O o to Ge’ revolution, thus ending the long reign of the Saraki-led Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Kwara.

Also, with the recent signing of the Electoral Act into law by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the consequent release of the election timetable by INEC, political activities have heightened in the state.
Kwara, known as the State of Harmony, has three senatorial districts, namely, Kwara Central, Kwara South and Kwara North. The first two have produced governors over the years on the platforms of PDP and APC in the present democratic dispensation.

The ruling APC and the PDP are the two leading political parties in Kwara state, judging by results of previous elections. Other parties like the SDP, LP, NNPP, among others, have never sustained their visibility after every general election.

Political watchers in the state are eagerly waiting to see whether the ADC will prove different in the 2027 general elections. The party now comprise few lieutenants of former Senate President Abubakar Bukola Saraki, and some members of the APC that feel the ruling party has betrayed them in the day to day governance of the state.

Among the leaders of the ADC in the state are former governor Abdulfatah Ahmed; former Ambassador to Japan, Professor Issa Gana; former Minister of Youths and Sports and now national publicity secretary of the party, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi; and former Chairman of PDP, Hon. Babatunde Muhammed.

Also, some members of APC who felt betrayed in the current political dispensation have dumped the party for ADC. The members, under the aegis of Kwara Redemption led by Hon. Iyiola Oyedepo, have joined the ADC ahead of 2027 elections.

The members while defecting to ADC pledged to work day and night to ensure that APC does not win in 2027 in view of its alleged poor governance.

However, available statistics of the 2023 general elections shows that in Kwara Central senatorial district, the APC polled 109,823 (61%) while the PDP garnered 69,202 (38%) in the number of votes cast. In Kwara South senatorial district, the APC had 55,966 votes (42%), the PDP got 34,950 votes (26%), the SDP with 24,265 votes (18%) and the ADC polled 4,612 (3%). In Kwara North, the APC garnered 78,015 (64%), the PDP had 41,443 (34%) and the LP with 1,947 (1%) out of the votes cast in the district.

From the above, it showed that the Kwara Central district has highest number of voters, just in previous elections in the state.

According to political pundits, it is, thus, an understatement to say that whichever political party that has the highest votes in the district would determine who becomes winner of governorship election in the state.

The opposition PDP had zoned its governorship position to Kwara North during the 2023 election for what the party said it was “for equity, justice and fairness”. Despite the zoning of the ticket of PDP to Kwara North senatorial district, the party failed to achieve the desired results following the perceived failure of the people of Kwara North to rally round the candidate of the PDP during the period but instead worked with the APC candidate from Kwara Central senatorial district.

The opposition PDP, led by former Senate President Bukola Saraki, has been working round the clock to change the narrative of the aftermath of the 2023 general elections and also to ensure that the party achieves greater success than the 2019 and 2023 elections.

PDP has, therefore, set out a plan that the leadership believes might help the party achieve success in 2027 as the zoning of elective offices in the party might have been shelved for now.

According to the party in a statement issued by its publicity secretary, Mr. Olusegun Olusola Adewara, all PDP members in the state are now free to seek elective posts irrespective of where they hail from so as to ensure equity, justice and fair play in the political game.

The ruling APC however believes that it is high time the people of the north senatorial district occupied the governorship of the state in 2027 for justice and equity. The last time the zone occupied the governorship seat was from 1992 to 1993 when Alhaji Shaaba Lafiagi ruled the state under the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP) after which successive leadership of the state has been coming from the central and the southern districts. Kwara Central produced late Mohammed Lawal (1999-2003), former Governor Bukola Saraki (2003-2011), incumbent Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq (2019 till date) while Cornelius Adebayo (October 2003 – December 2003) and Abdulfatah Ahmed (2011-2019) came from the South.

Stakeholders, especially some traditional rulers who have been alleged to be covertly involved in political activities in the state, have been scouting for an acceptable candidate from Kwara North.

In the ruling APC, the incumbent Speaker of the State Assembly, Rt. Hon. Yakubu Danladi-Salihu is, according to a dependable source, favoured by the governor to pick the governorship ticket.

Speaker Danladi-Salihu, a youth and a new breed politician and rumoured to have the backing of Governor AbdulRazaq, is from the north senatorial district. The zone has been making several attempts to realise the goal.

Various political summits have been convened by the people of the area, especially traditional rulers and the political class, to work as an entity to enable the zone secure the governorship position in 2027.

However, it seems there is alleged lack of unity of purpose in the zone as this manifested at the 2023 polls when the opposition (PDP) fielded a northern candidate, Alhaji Shuaib Yaman Abdullahi from Edu local government, but all efforts to ensure the people of the zone worked together for Abdullahi’s victory yielded no positive result.

Political pundits in the state believe that if care is not taken, this perceived lack of unity of purpose in the zone may also hinder the emergence of governor from the northern zone in 2027.

Aside this, some residents who spoke with THISDAY recently unanimously craved for better performance from the APC because of what they regarded as unfriendly policies of the government at both state and federal levels.

The Speaker would also need to work with other tendencies in APC as there are groups in the party that believe they were sidelined and abandoned shortly after the successful outing of “O To Ge”(enough is enough) movement in 2019.

The chairman, Senate Committee on Agricultural and Rural Development, Senator Saliu Mustapha, is one of the state’s governorship contenders. Though, yet to declare his intention for the position, his body language shows he is interested in the governorship race.

Mustapha, Turaki of Ilorin, remains an experienced politician of over 30 years in politics. He is former deputy chairman of the defunct Congress for Progressives Change (CPC). His political influence assisted the ruling APC to win the 2023 general elections in the state. His philanthropic gestures are major political assets for the lawmaker. He has been a kind and humble personality that is loved by members of APC and even in the other opposition political parties in the state.

The Senator representing Kwara North senatorial district, Sadiq Umar, a pharmacist by profession, have shown interest in the governorship position. Consequently, he formed his support group that has been moving round to garner support from APC leaders and members in the state for his gubernatorial ambition.

Also, a former state chairman of the APC, Hon. Bashir Omolaja Bolarinwa, popularly called BOB, has shown his intention to contest the governorship position under the APC. A grassroots man to the core, he is a former two-term federal lawmaker in Lagos, former two-term local government chairman in Lagos State. It was during his tenure as chairman of the APC that the party won the governorship seat and all other elections in Kwara. Though he is yet to declare his intention, he has been working underground to ensure he realises his ambition.

The DG NILDS, Professor Suleiman Abubakar, was a governorship aspirant of the PDP before he got the national assignment with the NILDS, Abuja, but has now defected to APC. He was said to have regrouped his political associates under the banner of “Amana” to realise his ambition. He is currently in APC and has remained a ‘serial’ aspirant in the political calculations of the state.

Another politician, Alhaji Yahaya Seriki is said to be interested in the governorship position. Alhaji Seriki, a former chairman, campaign council of Governor AbdulRazaq during the 2023 election, is believed to be confident that his closeness to the governor may earn him the ticket.

The former lawmaker representing Ilorin West/Asa Federal constituency, Hon. Mashood Mustapha, is a business mogul and astute politician. He is now a chieftain of ADC in the state. He was one of the APC gubernatorial aspirants in the build-up to the 2019 general elections but has now dumped the party for ADC. He has the capacity and the tenacity to vie for the position. His recent faceoff with Governor AbdulRazaq on the award of N17.8 billion Kwara Hotel rehabilitation contract and the demolition of his business arena on Sulu-Gambari Road in Ilorin is a clear evidence of his doggedness. Mustapha, fondly called “MM” by his admirers, is a politician of note that cannot be ignored in the political calculations of the state.

Another ADC aspirant is Professor Abdulmumin Ajia. He is a serial governorship aspirant in the state. He has been a governorship candidate of African Redemption Party, 2023 governorship aspirant of APC and now an aspirant in ADC. Ajia is said to lack grassroots support or any big political contact that could give him success at the polls. Pundits say that he always show up every year for what they called recognition in the political scene of the state.

In the opposition PDP, the aspirants include former Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Professor Ali Ahmad; Engineer Sulaiman Bolakale Kawu Agaka; former Chief of Staff to former Governor Bukola Saraki, Alhaji Ladi Hassan; and a son of a veteran diplomat, Omar Bolaji Gambari. All of them are from Ilorin, Kwara Central senatorial district.

Professor Ali, popularly called “Ali Dodo” is a consummate politician, having occupied various positions in the state. He is a former commissioner as well as former state and federal lawmaker. His outstanding performance as a member of the House of Representatives and the Speaker of the State House of Assembly is yet to be equalled. No doubt, he is an experienced politician that has garnered desired exposure to provide quality leadership if he eventually emerges as the next leader of the state.

Engineer Kawu, a traditional title holder of Ilorin Emirate, the Dan Iya of Ilorin, is a consummate administrator par excellence. He is an electrical engineer who has worked across the country and has been honoured by various social organisations in Ilorin and beyond. As a community man and philanthropist, Kawu has touched many lives by using his potentials to bring new lease of life to the less privileged.

Former Chief of Staff to former Governor Bukola Saraki, Alhaji Ladi Hassan, is an astute politician of note. He has garnered all necessary political and administrative experience to take over the leadership of the state if given the chance in 2027. He has been working round the clock to realise the ambition under the PDP.

The political atmosphere in the state his however tensed as cries for fairness are reverberating. Two terms of eight years of Governor Abdulrazaq would make Kwara Central senatorial district to have spent 20 years all together as Chief Executive of the State by 2027, while Kwara South senatorial district had produced governor for eight years. The northern senatorial district has yet to produce any governorship candidate in the current democratic dispensation.

Investigations into political strategy of the APC reveal that the ruling party would be looking towards other districts for the 2027 governorship ticket, aside Kwara Central where the incumbent governor hails from.

It was also gathered that the particular district that will produce the next governor in the APC is still being discussed among the stakeholders as consultations are still going on.

Though, Governor Abdulrazaq, the leadership of the APC and the APC elders’ caucus have categorically stated that the 2027 governorship position should move to Kwara North, however, future developments in the APC political circle and in the other political parties, would determine whether that would still stand.

In preparation for purpose-driven ambition in the 2027 governorship elections in the state, four governorship aspirants from the Kwara North senatorial district had, in June last year, met with the leadership of the ruling APC in the state and agreed to have only one among them as the governorship flag bearer in the race.

The stakeholders – Senator representing the Kwara North at the National Assembly Sadiq Umar; Speaker of the state House of Assembly, Yakubu Danladi-Salihu; Makama of Lafiagi, Alhaji Tajudeen Audu; and Haliru Dantosho Mahmud, expressed their readiness to work together as brothers to pick only one among the four. Their moves may have been inspired by Governor Abdulraman AbdulRazaq, who had, in his first term in office, assured of power shift to the zone in 2027.

Speaking with journalists during the meeting with the four governorship aspirants, the state APC deputy chairman, Abdullahi Samari, had pleaded with other senatorial districts to concede the governorship seat to Kwara North in 2027.

The APC deputy chairman, who is also from Kwara North, said that the zone was one big family, united to produce the next governor of the state.

“So far, there are only four politicians from the zone; namely Senator Umar, Hon Danladi-Salihu, Makama of Lafiagi Alhaji Tajudeen Audu and Haliru Dantosho Mahmud”, he said.

The APC deputy chairman, who said that the meeting was convened “to put our house in order and let the world know that Kwara North is prepared and ready to take over from the current Abdulraman AbdulRazaq administration come 2027”.

He said the zone wants “to continue his good work and surprise Kwarans that the candidate who will be the governor of the state will perform wonders to the amazement of those who think we don’t have materials.

“We have also invited the aspirants today for them to sit down and work together so that those who claim we cannot work together will know it is not true. We are trying to put our house in order to the envy of others who never thought we can work in unity.

“Principally, APC has guidelines and that will be followed before a candidate will emerge. We want to assure Kwarans and Nigerians that those aspiring to govern the state from Kwara North are people with enough wisdom, experience, people with fear of God, love for the masses and have resolved to work together – so that whosever emerges as the candidate at the end of the day with the support of our brothers and sisters from other senatorial districts – will cling the seat of power”.

It was also gathered that all the four aspirants took turns to express their resolve to rally round anyone of them that emerges as the governorship candidate come 2027.

Also, the Elders Caucus of the APC in Kwara state have unanimously resolved that the 2027 governorship slot in the state should go to Kwara North senatorial district in the interest of fair play, equity and justice.

The leader of the group, Barrister Kunle Sulyman, flanked by other members, argued that the Kwara Central and Kwara South had spent 20 years and eight years, respectively, as governors in the state.

“You may wish to recall that on Monday, November 21, 2022, at this same venue, this Caucus addressed the Press and made its stand known on the issue of zoning arrangements for the APC gubernatorial candidature that the then incumbent, Mallam Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq from Kwara Central, be allowed to have another shot to complete two terms of eight years, which would make Kwara Central senatorial district to have spent 20 years all together as Chief Executive of the State, while Kwara South senatorial district has also produced governor for eight years.

“In the same vein, we posit that it is in the interest of fair play, equity and justice that we members of the Kwara APC Elders Caucus, unanimously, agreed that the next gubernatorial candidate for our great party should emerge from Kwara North senatorial district”.

How united the zone would work in 2027 is still a subject of debate due to the experience of 2023 when PDP zoned its governorship ticket to the zone. Surprisingly, the zone did not seem ready to produce governor then as the people of the area did not vote en masse for the PDP governorship candidate to emerge victorious in the elections which gave the APC candidate second term.

There have been speculations that Governor AbdulRazaq may be supporting the Speaker of the House, Rt.Hon. Y Danladi-Salihu to succeed him as governor at least to fulfil his pledge on power shift to Kwara North. But his recent comment that he had no anointed candidate during the just concluded state Congress of the APC has unsettled the speaker’s camp.

The governor said that he would not impose candidate since he knows that there are challenges on ground and would not be involved in any action capable of affecting the electoral success of the party.

The PDP may not be looking in the direction of Kwara North this time as most of the leading governorship aspirants in the party are from Kwara Central. Pundits believe that this is the right time for the PDP to work as a team and ensure a sellable and acceptable candidate emerges among the aspirants in order to ensure victory for the party.

By and large, with the array of political actors in the three major political parties – APC, PDP and ADC – the race to the Ahmadu Bello Government House promises to be fierce and interesting.