Opposition Parties and APC: Strength, Fractures and Battle Ahead
As Nigeria gradually moves toward the political calculations that will shape the 2027 general elections, a critical question continues to dominate the national conversation: how strong are the opposition parties against the ruling All Progressives Congress? Jonathan Eze reports.
Nigeria’s political landscape ahead of the 2027 polls is increasingly defined by an unusual paradox: vocal opposition rhetoric on one hand and the expanding structural dominance of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) on the other. While opposition figures across the country have intensified criticism of the ruling party, the balance of political power still tilts decisively toward the APC.
Public discourse often suggests that dissatisfaction with economic pressures and governance challenges could create an opportunity for opposition parties. Yet, a deeper examination of Nigeria’s political structure, the distribution of power across states, and the internal dynamics of opposition parties paints a far more complicated picture.
While opposition figures frequently project confidence about defeating the ruling party, the organisational strength, geographical spread, and internal cohesion of the APC continue to give it a formidable advantage.
At the same time, persistent divisions within opposition parties threaten to weaken their ability to present a credible alternative.
In reality, Nigeria’s opposition appears to be confronting a structural and strategic dilemma that may ultimately determine whether the country witnesses a genuinely competitive electoral contest or a continuation of APC dominance.
Several prominent political actors outside the APC have intensified their criticism of the ruling party in recent months, warning that Nigeria risks drifting toward a system where the opposition becomes increasingly marginal.
Former Osun State governor and influential political figure, Rauf Aregbesola, has been particularly vocal in his assessment of the APC’s conduct in government and its relationship with opposition parties.
Aregbesola recently argued that the ruling party’s actions toward opposition figures reveal a deep sense of insecurity rather than confidence. According to him, a government that truly believes in its popularity would not resort to intimidation or suppression of dissenting voices.
According to him “If the APC is confident of its strength, it will not be so desperate in going after opposition members everywhere.”
For Aregbesola and several others who have distanced themselves from the ruling party, the path to political change lies in the ability of the opposition forces to unite and present a formidable electoral coalition.
Former Rivers State governor and erstwhile Minister of Transportation, Hon Rotimi Amaechi, has also warned that Nigeria’s political system could gradually tilt towards one-party dominance if opposition parties fail to organise themselves effectively.
Amaechi has repeatedly emphasised that the opposition must abandon internal rivalries and work together to defend democratic competition.
In one of his recent interventions, he urged political actors across party lines to mobilise against what he described as the growing consolidation of political power by the ruling party.
According to him: “The opposition parties should come together… PDP, ADC, Labour and others must unite if democracy is to remain competitive.”
Across several states, including Edo, Oyo, and parts of the South-South and the South-east, similar concerns have been expressed by opposition leaders who believe that the political playing field is increasingly tilting towards the ruling party.
Yet beyond these warnings lies a difficult reality: the opposition’s greatest challenge may not be the APC itself, but its own internal divisions.
Fragmentation of the Opposition
Nigeria’s opposition landscape today is characterised by fragmentation across multiple parties and competing political ambitions. A former Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Lagos state, and now a chieftain of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Tunde Shelle told THISDAY that the opposition parties are ready to wrestle power from the APC.
He, however, lamented that the current administration has taken over everywhere illegitimately, and that they have demonised democracy and virtually undermined all structures and organs. He added that state governors and party chieftains are all defecting to the APC through coercion and oppression, thereby tilting towards a one-party state.
His words: “ADC as a party is prepared but the truth is that the ruling party is choking us. They are trying to kill the party the way they killed PDP. They are fighting us by dragging us to court through proxies, and now, they are using the electoral law to hinder us. We are just starting our e-registration exercise, yet they are not giving us sufficient time.
“I call on the Nigerian people to join us and rescue this country. They are feeling the hunger, the insecurity, and the economic mismanagements. We are counting on them to join us in this fight to unseat the APC.”
The seemingly three most visible opposition platforms, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Labour Party (LP), and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) are all maintaining their own leadership structures, ideological leanings, and political calculations.
Rather than operating as complementary forces against a dominant ruling party, these groups often function as rivals for the same pool of voters and political influence.
This fragmentation significantly weakens the opposition’s capacity to build momentum nationwide.
In many states, opposition parties split the anti-incumbent vote among themselves, inadvertently strengthening the ruling party’s position.
The situation is further complicated by persistent leadership struggles within some of these parties. Internal disputes over party leadership, control of structures, and candidate selection frequently consume energy that might otherwise be directed toward building strong electoral campaigns.
In practical terms, this means that while opposition parties may appear vibrant in political rhetoric, their organisational coherence remains fragile.
In contrast to the opposition’s fragmentation, the ruling APC continues to enjoy a remarkable level of institutional consolidation.
One of its most significant advantages lies in its control of a large majority of Nigeria’s state governments. With about 30 states currently under APC control, the ruling party commands extensive grassroots networks across the federation.
State governors wield enormous political influence. They control party structures at the state level, maintain extensive patronage networks, and shape the direction of political mobilisation within their territories. This makes governors indispensable political assets during elections.
In states governed by the APC, the party benefits not only from incumbency but also from the political machinery that comes with control of government institutions and grassroots mobilisation.
Furthermore, the APC has continued to attract defections from opposition parties. Politicians seeking stronger political platforms or improved electoral prospects often gravitate toward the ruling party, thereby weakening opposition structures.
Over time, this steady stream of defections has expanded the APC’s reach and reinforced its position as Nigeria’s most dominant political organisation.
In Nigerian politics, electoral success often depends less on national rhetoric and more on state-level mobilisation. Governors function as the central coordinators of political operations within their states. Their influence extends to local government structures, party delegates, and electoral mobilisation.
This means that any party seeking to challenge the APC must first find a way to neutralise the influence of these governors within their respective states.
At present, however, the opposition has made limited progress in this regard.
In many zones, opposition parties remain organisationally weak at the grassroots level, making it difficult to build the kind of political momentum necessary to dislodge entrenched incumbents.
Even in states where the ruling party faces criticism, the political machinery controlled by governors often remains intact and highly effective during elections.
This structural reality places the opposition at a significant disadvantage.
Party Primaries
Perhaps, the most decisive test for the opposition will not come during the general election itself but during their own party primaries.
Historically, Nigerian party primaries have been among the most contentious phases of the electoral cycle. Intense competition among aspirants frequently produces deep internal divisions that weaken parties long before the general election begins.
For opposition parties already struggling with cohesion, the primaries could become a major flashpoint.
Multiple high-profile political figures are expected to seek presidential tickets across various opposition platforms. These ambitions will inevitably collide.
When the primaries eventually take place, the contest could trigger significant internal frictions, particularly if aspirants believe the process was manipulated or unfair.
Experience from previous election cycles suggests that losing contenders often respond in predictable ways: some defect to rival parties, while others remain within the party but quietly undermine the eventual candidate.
Such developments could severely damage the opposition’s prospects.
A fragmented opposition entering the general election with unresolved grievances from the primaries would face enormous difficulties presenting a united front against the ruling party.
In other words, the most destructive battles within the opposition may occur before voters even cast their ballots.
Coalition Politics
Recognising these challenges, several opposition leaders have called for a grand coalition capable of confronting the APC.
Discussions about potential alliances involving figures such as Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rotimi Amaechi, and other political actors occasionally surface in the national conversation.
However, coalition-building in Nigeria’s political environment is rarely straightforward.
Regional interests, ideological differences, and personal political ambitions often complicate attempts to build lasting alliances.
Even when coalitions emerge, disagreements over leadership, candidate selection, and power-sharing arrangements can quickly unravel them.
Without a clear, mutually agreed framework for cooperation, opposition alliances risk collapsing before they can fully mature into effective political platforms.
Reality of APC’s Political Dominance
For all the criticism directed at the ruling party, the APC’s political dominance remains rooted in structural advantages that are difficult to overcome.
Control of state governments, a nationwide political network, access to established party machinery, and the constant influx of defectors all contribute to reinforcing its position.
These advantages mean that the ruling party enters future electoral contests from a position of considerable strength.
Even if opposition parties succeed in mobilising public dissatisfaction on certain issues, converting that sentiment into electoral victory requires organisational capacity that they currently lack.
Political Landscape Favours APC
Nigeria’s political system remains competitive in principle, but the balance of power strongly favours the ruling party.
Opposition leaders continue to argue that political change is possible and that a united front could alter the trajectory of the country’s politics.
Yet unity remains elusive, and the structural realities of Nigerian politics continue to favour incumbency.
Unless opposition parties overcome their internal divisions, build strong grassroots structures, and navigate their primaries without destructive conflicts, their ability to challenge the APC will remain limited.
Indeed, given the present configuration of political power across the federation, there appears to be little evidence that any APC governor among the 30 states controlled by the party lacks the political capacity to deliver his state for the ruling party in future elections.
For now, Nigeria’s opposition faces a defining challenge: transforming political rhetoric into organisational strength.
Until that transformation occurs, the ruling APC’s dominance of the political landscape is likely to remain firmly intact.
