Cardoso: Nigeria Better Positioned to Weather Current Global Economic Shocks

• LCCI, civil society, others commend economic reforms, seek measures to cushion impact on masses, businesses

•Cite lack of social protection, effect on private sector, poor infrastructure as major lapses

Ndubuisi Francis, James Emejo in Abuja and Dike Onwuamaeze in Lagos

Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr. Olayemi Cardoso, yesterday, assured that the macroeconomic reforms and policy buffers that the country had built over the past two years positioned it to navigate the current global economic shocks arising from the geopolitical tensions occasioned by the United States–Israel war on Iran.

Cardoso spoke in Lagos while delivering the annual Distinguished Alumni Lecture of St. Gregory’s College Old Boys Association, with the theme, “Strong Foundations: From the Classroom to the Capital Base,” in celebration of the college’s Founders Day.

He said the theme was a reminder that the principles that shaped strong individuals were the same principles that ultimately shaped strong institutions and economies.

The CBN’s governor’s assurance came on a day critical stakeholders from the private sector, academia, and civil society conceded to the need for the current reforms by the federal government.

However, they expressed concern that the hasty implementation without social protection as well as poor infrastructure had continued to exert a heavy toll on businesses and the masses.

The stakeholders converged on Abuja at a stakeholders’ dialogue on, “Sustaining and Deepening Economic Reforms in Nigeria,” organised by Agora Policy, in collaboration with Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), with support from Nigeria Economic Stability and Transformation (NEST) and UK International Development.

Cardoso said, “Today, the global economy is facing renewed shocks, including continued geopolitical tensions and the latest developments in the US–Israel–Iran conflict.

“These events have the potential to push energy prices higher, disrupt supply chains, and increase risk aversion among global investors.

“But the macroeconomic reforms and policy buffers we have built over the past two years have placed Nigeria in a far stronger position to navigate these challenges.

“The storms may come, but our house will stand firm. Strong foundations matter: whether for individuals, institutions, or nations.”

The CBN governor added, “Many of you will know the lesson of building a house on solid rock versus building on sinking sand or a crumbling bank.

“Foundations matter because they determine whether a structure can withstand the storms that inevitably come.

“The same is true for economies. The strength of economic foundations often becomes most visible during moments of uncertainty.”

According to him, institutions like St. Gregory’s, do more than educate, as they build foundations, as well as cultivate character, discipline, intellectual curiosity, and integrity.

Cardoso stated, “These are not abstract virtues but practical tools that shape how individuals make decisions, manage responsibility, and navigate uncertainty throughout life.”

He said over the past two decades, Nigeria’s financial system had grown significantly, stating, however, that growth on its own is not enough and must be matched by resilience and strengthened capacity. He said it was in this context that CBN introduced the banking recapitalisation programme in 2024.

Cardoso stated, “As of today, March 12, 2026, 33 banks have successfully raised additional capital, and 30 have already met the new minimum capital requirements for their respective license categories.

“The remaining institutions are currently undergoing the Central Bank’s routine verification process in line with the established compliance timeline.”

He disclosed that the current recapitalisation exercise was awakening international investors’ confidence in Nigerian banks, saying major investment announcements would be made this year.

Cardoso emphasised that CBN’s return to an orthodox monetary policy environment in 2023 had resisted pressures to continue quasi-fiscal interventions that previously distorted the macroeconomic landscape.

He said statisticians in due time will come out with numbers to show that not many countries in the world could compare to the amount of excess money that went into the Nigerian system through ways and means under the past unorthodox regime.

The CBN governor stated, “Our fight against inflation has been resolute, and the tight monetary policy stance we adopted has significantly contributed to bringing inflation down from a peak of 34 per cent to around 15 per cent today.

“And I must tell you that our goal is to bring it down to single digit though it is not something to be accomplished overnight.

“Our commitment to transparent, well-governed, and functional markets is also clear in the foreign exchange market.”

He stressed, “Through deliberate policy actions, we eliminated the system of multiple exchange rates that had previously benefitted only a privileged few.

“At the same time, we reduced the parallel market premium from around 50 per cent in 2022 to less than two per cent on average in 2025.”

The central bank governor said, currently, Nigeria’s foreign exchange market operated with far greater liquidity and efficiency, and has cleared the backlog of unmet demands. He said market participants were now able to transact without relying on extraordinary central bank’s interventions.

He stated, “We have also seen almost a 200 per cent increase in capital and investment flows between 2023 and 2025.

“To be clear, the relative stability of the currency we are seeing today is not an accident but the result of deliberate efforts to rebuild trust and strengthen the confidence of both domestic and international investors.

“Our external reserves have recently exceeded 50 billion dollars, reflecting structural improvements in our balance of payments and increasing investment flows into the Nigerian economy.”

The CBN governor said the depth of Nigeria’s foreign exchange market was attested to a couple of days ago when the amount of transactions that were done in the market exceeded $1 billion.

He said the progress reflected not only the resilience of Nigeria’s financial system, but also the growing confidence of investors in the long-term potential of the economy.

Cardoso said, “By strengthening the capital foundations of our banks and ensuring that our financial markets are transparent and well governed, we are also strengthening the foundations of economic growth itself.”

He said CBN was also taking the fintech ecosystem seriously and establishing clear guardrails for KYC, AML, and operational risk, adding  that these measures are not obstacles but the infrastructure that ensures innovation can scale sustainably.

He said, “Just as capital buffers protect banks, these regulatory frameworks protect the integrity and credibility of the broader financial ecosystem.

“By combining innovation with discipline, technology with integrity, and opportunity with responsibility, we can ensure that Nigeria’s financial system not only adapts to the digital age but thrives in it.

“This is the bridge between strong foundations today and sustainable growth tomorrow.”

Cardoso assured the students of St. Gregory’s that they would be entering a world of extraordinary possibility and many of the industries that will define their careers were only just beginning to emerge.

He stated, “But what is perhaps most exciting is that the future will not belong to one profession alone. Increasingly, we are witnessing the integration of disciplines in ways that would have been unimaginable only a generation ago.

“The doctor of tomorrow will most likely rely on artificial intelligence to diagnose disease and the lawyer will work alongside technologists to design digital contracts and regulatory systems.

“The engineer may build financial platforms, and the financier may rely on data science to manage global risk.

“At the same time, entire new creative and entrepreneurial opportunities are emerging. What this means is that the careers of the future will increasingly belong to those who can combine different skills and perspectives.

“Young people today are already building careers through a medley of capabilities: creativity and technology, business and storytelling, analytics and design.

“So, whether you choose to become a doctor, lawyer, engineer, a financier, an entrepreneur, athlete, or artist, your success will increasingly depend on your ability to understand and work across multiple disciplines.”

Cardoso explained, “Skills in areas such as artificial intelligence, coding, data science, digital media, and emerging technologies will probably not replace traditional careers but they will certainly enhance them.

“As you think about your future, it is important to look not only at the world as it exists today, but at the world that is rapidly emerging.

“The careers of the next twenty or thirty years will reward those who are curious, adaptable, and willing to learn beyond the limits of a single field of study.”

Cardoso said the founders of St. Gregory’s College understood that the most important foundations a nation could build were not physical structures, but human ones.

According to him, “Strong schools produce disciplined thinkers. Disciplined thinkers build strong institutions. And strong institutions create prosperous nations.

“The classrooms of today will shape the financial systems of tomorrow. The character formed here will influence the decisions that shape markets, institutions, and policies across our country.”

Meanwhile, at during a panel discussion at the Agora Policy forum, Director-General, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Dr. Chinyere Almona, observed that the recent reforms on foreign exchange (FX) and fuel subsidies had impacted the economy in diverse ways.

Applauding the reforms for correcting some of the distortions in the system, Almona said while there was increased investor confidence in the country in the wake of the reforms, businesses had been buffeted by a more challenging operating environment, and receding consumer demand, among others.

She said there were expectations that savings accruing from the removal of subsidies would be channelled into infrastructure, especially power.

Almona called for complementary measures from the fiscal and monetary authorities to cushion the effect of the reforms on businesses and vulnerable citizens

Almona stated that the private sector was struggling to remain afloat, with about 50 per cent of business costs channelled into energy needs. She called for innovative ways of extending more support to small and medium enterprises (SMEs).

She also regretted that tracking of government’s interventions in some sectors of the economy had remained at best poorly executed or anonymous.

Contributing to the discussion, Country Director, CARE International, Dr. Hussaini Abdu, called for a standard national framework on social protection.

Abdu observed that hasty implementation of the reforms by the government without social safety safeguards was unjustifiable. He stressed that the country had been embarking on one aspect of economic/structural reform or the other since 1986, under a military regime.

Abdu lamented the social dislocation of the current reforms on the masses due to the inability of the government to consult extensively, and put in place workable social protection mechanisms prior to implementation.

In his intervention, Deputy Governor, Economic Policy, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Dr. Muhammad Sani Abdullahi, said the economy was on the brink of collapse before the reforms kicked in.

Abdullahi added that if the new administration of President Bola Tinubu had hesitated, the repercussions would have been economically fatal.

He juxtaposed prevailing macroeconomic fundamentals prior to the reforms with the current realities, and stated that net reserves were about $800 million, as opposed to about $40 billion currently, with inflation trending down, among others.

He stated that before the reforms, investor confidence was at its lowest because the monetary authority could not meet its FX obligations to investors, with a staggering $7 billion in unmet foreign liabilities.

Abdullahi said the current CBN reforms led to the clearing of the backlog of FX obligations, which led to the current boost in investor confidence and Nigeria currently considered one of the leading investment destinations of choice.

The CBN deputy governor stated that there had been FX market stability, and a downward trajectory of inflation. He pointed out that the next stage would be to make the stability sustainable while working for a broad-based, inclusive growth anchored on job creation.

Abdullahi said the situation at the time was too dire and compelling to delay the reforms a day longer.

Senior Economist, World Bank, Nigeria, Dr. Samer Matta, said the country would have slipped into the position Sri Lanka found itself but for the timely reforms of the Tinubu administration. Matta added that a gradual approach to subsidy removal wouldn’t have worked.

He agreed that there should have been social protection for the vulnerable before the reforms, urging more conscious efforts to drive down inflation and ensure at least a five per cent economic growth.

In her contribution, Special Adviser to the President on Economy and Finance, Ms. Sanyade Okoli, said the government meant well when it came up with the reforms, adding that that the reforms have impacted positively on the macroeconomic stability of the country.

Okoli appealed for patience and understanding from Nigerians on the negative effects, assuring that in no distant time, measures put in place to cushion such consequences will begin to kick in.

Earlier, in her goodwill message, Chairperson of Agora Policy, Dr. Ojobo Atuluku, stated that serious reforms were ongoing across the economic sector, stressing that change is constant.

Atuluku said economic policy must never be a one-off event, but should be a constant conversation between those who design reforms, those who implement them, and those who are impacted by them.