Amidst Low Yield, Subscription to NTBs Dwindle to N6.13trn in Two Months 

Kayode Tokede 

On the back of low yields and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) reduction of exposure to government securities, the Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) total subscription dropped to N6.13 trillion in the first two months of 2026. 

According to the CBN’s ‘Primary Market’ data, the N6.13 trillion subscription is 37 per cent drop from the N9.68 trillion recorded in the first two months of 2025.

A breakdown revealed that investors’ total NTB subscription in January 2026 stood at N4.69 trillion, a 197per cent Month-on-Month (MoM) increase over N1.54 trillion declared in February 2025.  

Nigerian Treasury Bill  or Treasury Bill is a short-term debt instrument issued by a government at the primary market to raise funds and manage liquidity in the economy. It is considered one of the safest investments because it is backed by the government.

THISDAY learnt from the CBN’s data that the total amount offered to investors in the first two months of 2026 stood at N2.3 trillion, a 51.8 per cent increase over N1.52 trillion in the first two months of 2025. 

The CBN, however, settled for N2.1 trillion, which is about a 23 per cent drop from N2.72 trillion raised in the first two months of 2025. 

Amid massive subscription in the period under review, the spot rates on 364-Day NTB dropped to 16.99 per cent as of the February 2026 auction from 18.43per cent declared by the CBN February 2025.

Also, the stop rate on 182-Day moved from 18 per cent February 2025 to 16.65per cent as of February 2026, while the rate on 91-Day NTB closed February 2026 at 15.84per cent from 17per cent February 2025.

The CBN has been scaling back on elevated discount rates offered on the NTB due to strong demand and the fact that the benchmark interest rate has raced ahead of the country’s headline inflation that has seen decline in recent months.

By tightening its monetary policy through higher interest rates and large NTB auctions, the CBN aims to curb rising inflation and stabilise the foreign exchange rate, thereby fostering a more balanced economic environment.

This has reflected in the dwindling inflation rate, currently at 15.05 per cent as of January 2026, to mark a decrease from previous months.

Further analysis revealed that investors’ demand for long maturities NTBs continued to grow as an estimated N5.8trillion contributed to the total N6.13trillion investors subscription in the two months under review.  

Also, the variation in stop rates across tenors also offers insight into investor sentiment regarding short-, medium-, and long-term economic outlooks.

While the lower stop rate on the 182-day NTB bill suggests anticipation of stable interest rates, the higher stop rate on the 364-day NTB could imply a cautious stance towards potential future economic volatilities.

Investors’ diversified demand across the different maturities of NTB reflects strategic positioning for various investment horizons and signals a healthy trading environment in the Nigerian debt market.

The  Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the CBN at its first meeting in 2026  reduced interest rate to 26.50  per cent amid slow down in inflation rate and stability in the foreign exchange.

Commenting, analysts at Cordros Research in a report said, “We believe the 50basis points reduction in the MPR is unlikely to trigger a material decline in yields. To put it in proper context, market sentiment had already turned bullish ahead of the decision, as evidenced by strong oversubscription at recent auctions, with institutional investors positioning early to lock in elevated yields in anticipation of a more decisive rate cut. As such, we expect a measured reaction in the secondary market following the MPC outcome. 

“In the near term, we believe fixed income yields will remain anchored by sizable government borrowing, liquidity conditions, and the inflation trajectory. Specifically, while recent increases in liquidity conditions and sustained disinflation are likely to drive yields lower in the near term, the increased pace of government borrowing and a cautious pace of monetary easing are likely to slow the pace of decline.”